Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 27 August)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• SE/ESE swell Fri, holding Sat and slowly easing Sun with lighter winds as Tasman low drifts towards New Zealand
• New E swell pulse Thurs, easing through Fri with NW to N winds.
• NE windswell building next Fri, easing quickly through Sat AM

Recap

A mix of strong S swell and developing SE/ESE swell has been on the cards since Wed, as a deep Tasman low slowly drifts towards New Zealand. Mod SE winds have slowly started to ease and tend S’ly at times as pressure gradients ease. Size has been in the 4-5ft range. 

This weekend (Aug 28-29) 

Plenty of surf on offer this weekend as Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show our Tasman low in a great place, slowly drifting E of Tasmania towards New Zealand, maintaining a nice pressure gradient squeeze with a high pressure cell SE of Tasmania. As expected, the low has filled in a bit, with a corresponding lessening of windspeeds, mostly low end gales, compared to the storm force winds of it’s “bombing” phase. 

The fetch of SE/ESE winds in the Eastern Tas swell window is producing strong surf in the 4-5ft range and with the very slow movement of the low this size is now expected to hold through Sat and extend into Sun, with only a slow easing trend expected through the day on Sunday.

Winds should ease back to light and variable with a good chance of a morning land breeze before winds tend E/NE Sat, and NE on Sunday. 

All in all, well worth chasing a surf down over the weekend.

Next week (Aug30) and beyond.

Quite an active forecast period next week for NETas. 

Remnants of this weeks Tasman low are expected to drift NE towards the North Island over the weekend and reintensify Sun/Mon with a fetch of severe gales extending out of Cook Strait into the Tasman Sea. There has been some model variance on the strength of the fetch but based on current modelling we’re looking at surf building late Wed PM into the 2-3ft range across NETas, and holding Thursday in the 3ft range. Expect NW N’ly winds during the day

A large high straddling New Zealand late next week is expected to see a freshening N’ly flow in the lower Tasman through Bass Strait and adjacent to NETAS during Friday. This should should whip up some local windswell in the 2-3ft range , possibly holding early Sat morning before W’ly winds from a weak front shunt the fetch eastwards. 

Check back Mon for a fresh update.