Fun options developing on the beaches

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 17th June)

Best Days: Exposed beaches tomorrow afternoon and Sunday, Monday exposed beaches, Surf Coast Tuesday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Small, inconsistent, mid-period W/SW swell tomorrow with N/NW tending NE winds, easing Sun with N/NE-NE winds
  • Inconsistent, mid-period W/SW swell building Mon PM, peaking Tue, easing Wed
  • Strengthening N/NE winds Mon, gusty NW tending W/NW Tue and NW tending W Wed


A small pulse of weak W/SW swell yesterday to 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft+ to the east, cleanest in protected spots west of Melbourne through the morning.

The swell has eased into today and conditions are mixed after yesterday's change with lumpy, peaky 1-1.5ft waves on the Surf Coast, 2ft+ to the east.

This weekend and next week (Jun 18 - 24)

As discussed in the last few updates we'll be relying on inconsistent, small, westerly swell this coming period and while the models show a fairly decent increase in energy tomorrow, I feel likely they're overcooking things a touch.

The source of tomorrow's swell was a couple of weak fetches of strong W/NW winds in our far swell window and the Surf Coast is only due to generate an inconsistent 1-2ft wave with 3ft+ sets to the east.

Locally winds will be favourable for both regions, light N/NW tending NE, best to the east after lunch.

NE-N/NE winds will favour the exposed beaches all day Sunday but with easing size from Saturday, tiny on the Surf Coast and a slow 2-3ft to the east.

As we head into next week we should see some slightly better mid-period W/SW energy with the progression firing up and across Western Australia being a little better aligned than forecast on Wednesday.

We're seeing a broad, elongated fetch of strong to sub-gale-force winds aimed through our western swell window, with the swell due to build slowly Monday afternoon but peak Tuesday to 2ft to occasionally 3ft on the Surf Coast magnets, 4-5ft to the east with the possible rare bigger one.

Winds will increase and vary ahead of an approaching front, with a strengthening N/NE breeze expected as the swell builds on Monday, favouring the exposed beaches with Tuesday seeing gusty NW tending W/NW winds, favouring the Surf Coast.

There's no swell due to be generated by the fronts moving through and across us mid-week, with easing surf and NW tending W'ly winds due Wednesday.

We're looking at a better W/SW groundswell developing for next Friday and weekend with favourable winds for the Surf Coast. More on this Monday. Have a great weekend!


Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror Friday, 17 Jun 2022 at 7:40pm

Bit of a long period south swell in the water late this arvo on the Mornington Peninsula, Had a look at the winki cam replays on dark two blokes getting the occasional wave with more size than Portsea. Checked the buoys showing up to 15 sec.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 17 Jun 2022 at 9:35pm

I was going to mention this as a chance but that was SE groundswell slipping through Bass Strait. Insane!!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Saturday, 18 Jun 2022 at 9:24am

Finbob, it was SE groundswell and it's now impacting South Australia..

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror Saturday, 18 Jun 2022 at 8:07pm

You can see it on the Cape Sorell buoy and the Uni buoy at Port Fairy. The reverse Tassy wrap around crazy. I wonder what they saw in south Tassy.

pittsy's picture
pittsy's picture
pittsy Saturday, 18 Jun 2022 at 9:38am

Any updates on the wye or fairhaven cam?

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Meadell Saturday, 18 Jun 2022 at 9:48am

I'm locked out of premium access, is this a website issue?

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Craig Saturday, 18 Jun 2022 at 9:55am

It looks like your subscription ran out in 2018, you need to update :)

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Alana_a Saturday, 18 Jun 2022 at 8:52pm