Slow winter outlook ahead

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday June 13th)

Best Days: Today Surf Coast, keen surfers tomorrow morning Surf Coast and early Wednesday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Easing S/SW swell today with W/NW tending variable winds
  • Small leftovers tomorrow with a moderate N-N/NW breeze, freshening through the day
  • New spike of S/SW groundswell Wednesday AM, fading quickly with strong N winds
  • Tiny weak W'ly swell Thu, with a building windswell for the PM. Gusty W/NW tending W/SW winds
  • Tiny surf Fri with W/NW tending SW winds
  • Small to tiny weekend with N/NW tending NE winds Sat, and NE winds Sun


A great pulse of S/SW swell from Friday afternoon held well into Saturday morning with offshore winds and clean 4-6ft sets across the Surf Coast, larger and bumpier to the east. Conditions deteriorated a touch into the afternoon as winds shifted W/SW, favouring protected breaks.

Yesterday saw large, wind affected surf with average winds, best in protected spots for experienced boardriders. The swell has now started to ease and conditions are cleanish again on the Surf Coast with sets to 4ft. We’ll see the swell continue to ease through the day as winds tend variable.

This week and weekend (Jun 14 - 19)

With the coming slow outlook I'd firstly preface this forecast by saying make the most of today's swell and winds.

Tomorrow will be a low point in between all the activity seen since last week and winds will start to freshen out of the north ahead of an approaching mid-latitude front. Swell wise there won’t be much left across the region with fading 2ft sets on the Surf Coast and 3ft’ers to the east with a moderate N-N/NW breeze, freshening through the day. The beaches to the east will be a little wind affected but surfable.

Come Wednesday stronger N’ly winds are due and we should see a new S/SW groundswell in the water, generated by a final storm off the back of the slow moving Southern Ocean gyre mentioned through last week. This will be in the form of a polar low that’s currently south of Tasmania.

The low has formed late in our swell window but it’s generated a great fetch of gale to severe-gale SW winds, with the swell due to arrive overnight tomorrow and ease quickly Wednesday from 2-3ft at dawn on the Surf Coast magnets (1-2ft arvo), 3-4ft to the east.

It’s a fluky swell and not worth putting too much time aside for.

Now, as discussed last week, the mid-latitude low pushing in through the Bight doesn’t look favourable at all for swell production, with it sitting to far north and also being relatively weak in nature.

I can’t see the Surf Coast seeing any surfable size at all Thursday and winds will be average for the beaches to the east, which again don’t look to offer much size or quality.

A fresh W/NW wind will shift W/SW through the afternoon with a weak 1-2ft wave building on the Surf Coast into the afternoon.

Easing surf with W/NW tending SW winds is due on Friday but the Surf Coast, which will be clean looks tiny.

Unfortunately there’s no significant swells or surf on the cards for the weekend or early next week as the storm track remains focussed up towards Western Australia, in our far western swell window. We should see an inconsistent W/SW groundswell for next week along with unseasonal winds from the north-eastern quadrant, favouring the exposed beaches on the peninsula. More on this in the coming updates.


greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound Monday, 13 Jun 2022 at 10:28am

I’m struggling to remember what a proper winter surf season looks like after, for the most part 3 years of shite.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 13 Jun 2022 at 11:05am

Yep, hasn't been a proper run of cold fronts and swell eh?!

rogerdodger's picture
rogerdodger's picture
rogerdodger Tuesday, 14 Jun 2022 at 3:17pm

...and to watch south NSW pumping...again....agghhh throw us a freakin bone here

vicbloke's picture
vicbloke's picture
vicbloke Tuesday, 14 Jun 2022 at 3:18pm

and the shite continues :(

Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... Tuesday, 14 Jun 2022 at 4:26pm

In between fresh snow falls for skiing at least Huey could give us a wave or two to surf on.

Cockee's picture
Cockee's picture
Cockee Tuesday, 14 Jun 2022 at 5:44pm

You lot are hard to please, last week was pretty good round these (WB) parts.

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror Tuesday, 14 Jun 2022 at 5:46pm

Looks ok if you don't rely on the surf coast for waves