Options for all regions on the weekend
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 4th September)
Best Days: Today, tomorrow Surf Coast, Sunday, Monday for the keen across exposed spots, Thursday on the beaches
Recap
A slow and infrequent westerly groundswell yesterday with 2ft sets on the Surf Coast, a bit bigger to the east and to 3ft to occasionally 4ft. Conditions were clean early before winds strengthened into the afternoon and shifted more westerly.
Today we've got some better W/SW swell energy with sets to 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft waves to the east under a N/NW breeze.
Tasty 13th this AM
This weekend and next week (Sep 5 – 11)
A mix of varying W/SW swells are breaking across the Victorian coast today, originating from a broad though patchy mid-latitude frontal progression moving in slowly from the west.
This is now dipping south-east across Tasmania and with no real strength, resulting in a drop in size from this source through tomorrow.
A new, inconsistent W/SW groundswell should fill in and take its place tomorrow, generated earlier this week by a strong storm developing east of the Heard Island region.
There'll be long waits between sets though we should see 2-3ft waves tomorrow morning building to a very infrequent 3ft+ on the Surf Coast magnets into the afternoon with building sets to 4-5ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.
Winds will favour the Surf Coast and be out of the W/NW through the morning, shifting S-S/SW into the afternoon though with no major strength.
Sunday still looks the pick for the beaches with easing surf from 3ft on the sets across the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east (very inconsistent) along with moderate local offshores in the morning, more N/NE into the afternoon.
Stronger N/NE winds will kick in Monday but the swell will be small on the Surf Coast, with infrequent 2-3ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.
The rest of the week week and beyond will again rely on tricky westerly swell energy as a progression of significant storms fire up towards Western Australia but stay at distance to us and also sit in our western swell window.
This will make for inconsistent and smaller swells for the rest of the week, and the models look to be over-forecasting the size a little mid-week.
Currently a broad and elongated storm is projecting strong to gale-force WSW tending W/SW winds towards WA and this will strengthen while continuing to move slowly east through this weekend.
A very inconsistent long-period W/SW groundswell is due off this source, with it due to build Wednesday and ease Thursday.
The remnants of the progression will push under WA and through the Bight Monday in a much weaker form, producing some additional mid-period W/SW swell energy that may be seen late Tuesday but more so Wednesday.
Size wise, we can expect the Surf Coast to build to an inconsistent 3ft through Wednesday, easing from this size Thursday with 4-6ft sets to the east.
Winds look average Wednesday in the wake of a trough Tuesday and high moving in, bringing onshore S/SE winds, great on the beaches Thursday with winds shifting back to the N/NE-NE.
Longer term it looks like we'll continue to rely on distant westerly energy, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!
Comments
at what point to melbourne surfers unite to petition Dan to set us free?! Surely we are one of the safest activities out there and far less likely to spread than other multi person exercises? the leaked roadmap indicates the 5km restriction is staying in place into the new stage 3...
Fuck, the 5km limit is what's cooking me the most! Surely they can even just bring back the metro melbourne bubble, and keep the regions as is for a bit longer!
Wow Mcgusto, a zinger to get the party started. Successfully petition a pollie in dictator mode ? Good luck. My concern is the unite will happen by people not feeling morally obligated to follow rules. Start thinking it is now worth letting this thing take the required human toll to run its course T Abbot style. Especially when surfs up and Vicco pop going nuts. Could see a rebellion happen , I wouldnt promote it though - I got one in oven so better not say more.
Good luck with that Gusto,
completely agree, had enough of the dickheads running this state.
hehe happy friday boys! but its a real concern if the 5km stays in place. the old stage 3 and melbourne bubble is what i am hoping for but the leaked reports suggest otherwise. they seem to indicate it will be in place until 14 day average of cases drop below 5. pipe dream!
that said maybe i'm jumping at shadows, we dont know what we dont know until sunday...we'll be waiting with bated breath!
Yeh considering the aged care debacle & health care infections, hard to see 14 day average of 5 cases in a city of 5 million coming anytime in the next few months. Fucked. Sunday is a big day, could really ruin my father's day...
if its extended more folks will just start to weight up the options and have a crack at running the gauntlet or finding the loopholes I reckon, further the distance to travel higher the risk of a fine I guess
You'd probably think that if heaps of people simply started ignoring the 5km limit and copping fines left right & centre, and then everyone challenged the fines, it would overwhelm the court system. Plus if a large number are out doing as they please, the cops can only fine so many anyway as they'll be significantly outnumbered out there against the general public.
We aren't at that stage of society yet and not suggesting I'd do this myself as I like to consider myself responsible and set a good example for my kids, but ya wonder how many more weeks/months it'd take until many just start to say fuck this I'm doing what I want.
I'm running a loop hole this weekend. Lucky to have work sites in Melbourne and other locations closer to the beach
Cops will be round at your place in 5....4....3....2.....1.....
Incitement
Hope you hid your weed!
Did someone hit ringmaster's soft spot?
Better be careful, don't think opinions are allowed anymore.
McGusto can expect a knock on the door shortly...
All the Melbourne gents should be more concerned about when the Tulla Tub is opening back up.
Sorry to be inclusive, ladies, gents and the LGBITQUJSVMNZXYRWPKFDAC...ran out of inclusive letters.
I'm thinking the Tulla Tub should be a goer some time in October.
I'd take that in a heartbeat and leave the coast for the locals for a few extra weeks. Something...anything
tulla tub might not meet the 5km piece tho....
also id argue the beach is safer than a crowded pool
Just add more chlorine.........easy!
Here’s a new one for you. GUN owners beware. I’m not talking D Brewer pintails.A Fellow picked up for not wearing a facemask had Vic police attend his home and confiscate all his firearms.Other minor cases of non compliance cases have been confirmed by Mials gunshop/Frankston where the police have been confiscating firearms.
I’m sure that brings a smile to some people’s face.
Something to consider if stepping outside your 5klm zone.
Beijing green diplomacy at work?
Is this tieing in with the corona powers of Police being a able to enter households with no warrants?
From what I heard on the radio last week, any blatant breach of restrictions leads to suspension of your gun license.
A champion shooter ( i forget her name) was sharing her concerns, that accidental breaches could lead to them losing their license.
Cant wait too see what faces are around on Sunday
Strange heads everywhere yesterday arvo Bone.
Heaps of young family corona dogs staying in Mummy and Daddy's multi million dollar holiday homes.
Been around for a while, I think they are starting to get a bit more confident and venture outdoors.
Recon we will see a few unfamiliar faces tomorrow, it would be confronting for them paddling out to a surf spot with only people who live with in 5 km of the spot out there.
At least you can surf Firm and Hards. Don"t recon anyone will paddle out there.
Finbob have you seen any cops actually asking people where they are from or pulling people over? Is the 5k thing being enforced from what you’ve seen
yeah cops everywhere
2 where on jet skis last time it was 3 ft and off shore
nah I haven't seen any police enforcing the 5km rule.
Some blokes got a warning at rye car park and told to move on but they were hanging out in the car park.
One bloke got his details taken and told surfing was recreational at Portsea, he was with in the 5km of his house.
The cops actually went past on jet skis last time it was small and off shore.
The police are expecting the locals to sort out any one who decides to try and surf outside of the their 5km barrier. Been a few cars getting trashed in the small car parks. Old man Hilly style with a squirty bottles full of break fluid attached ya bike handle bars. Tires getting slashed that sort of thing. Ha
Had a surf at the Canine’s Cranium last weekend. We got followed by people who definitely aint residing in their 5km.
They’d probably just bought some vegan sausages from finbobs pantry
Think those vegan snags were moulded from old baldy.
Dont think they were following you for the surf,
You need to deattractify your self Bone. You handsome longslong.
that areas a beat isn't it?
Sure is
pecker sized peep holes in the dunny blocks
Don't think the bones would squeeze through,
thats where that old boy got dragged out of and roughed up, peeping at someone while having a fiddle while they had a piddle.
Dandrews has no intention of opening anything anytime soon.
whoops sorry, that's an illegal opinion.
can i just say ,the 5 k rule applies and i will ring the police personally if anyone is flouting the rules yeeewwwwwwwwwww
Me too, while I flout them myself at the opposite end of the peninsula haha
Bit rough calling a Victorian forecast "options for all", Craig.
Yeah sorry that was the first edit. Changed to regions shortly after publishing. Hope you're well Tim.
Yep, it's hit that point where the inconvenience totally outweighs the potential loss of life impact. Especially so when you consider what over population is doing to our small blue planet. These laws mostly thought up by baby boomers trying to dodge the karma bus.
Oh dear. Have you considered how people who live in these areas might feel about you just letting it rip? Have you considered that they might be more of a threat to you than the virus, especially if everyone starts looking out for themselves? The laws are thought up by epidemiologists actually.
User name checks out.
Yeah your surfing is more important than laying low to get everything back to normal for the whole state.
"laying low" sounds like a thought in the right direction. I'd expand that thinking to a big fix over getting a "state" back to whatever "normal" means. When mother nature knocks on our door like this, time to listen. Treat the cause not the symptom.
If you really want to treat the cause and not the symptom, then you’re going to have to eat those vegan sausages
No surfing for the non-5km MP crew until 26th Oct at a minimum. What a complete and utter fucking joke
Dunno about you geek but i'm done, let the expensive summer commence
Yeh mate I’ll see you out there, fuck this
Preach my friend
What a blow. 5km limit staying. Can’t even get to the bay for a swim.
I have had a complete gutful. Done everything they have asked and we still can't get out.
My wife cannot walk any great distance and we are sick and tired of looking at the same footpath day after day. A change of scenery would be a great relief but I can't even take her for a drive to the Arthurs Seat Lookout without risking being apprehended and fined by the local Gestapo. No wonder we're both going mad.
I suggest to everyone to call your local MP and have them force Andrews to remove the 5km restriction for exercise. I called David Morris last week and I'll call him again tomorrow, hopefully they make an issue of it on the news.
I'll also call Federal Member Peta Murphy and suggest she convince Andrews to remove the limit.
While I don't disagree with what has been done to date, it really is time we all be given the opportunity to engage in our chosen form of exercise. I can't see any problem with driving on your own or with a family member to go for a surf (or other activities involving exercise) provided you take the appropriate precautions. That is wear a mask and don't congregate in the carpark.
I've had enough of being treated like a child.
Stalag Victoria, the Gulag of the South, run by Kommandant Dan.
Any sympathy I had for the ALP has gone forever. They can all get fucked at the next election.
for what it's worth, the surf has been terrible for months... shocking winter.
Where does it mention the 5km exercise rule for Oct 26?
Summaries here, see exercise section for second step and third step
So wave pool could reopen September 28? It’s all still dependant on case numbers, so no guarantees.
First step... Second step...
Vague.. so exercise can be beyond 5km? Ie not recreation.
You gotta admit they make it way more fun, bursting people's brains and keeping us all guessing, by leaving ambivalent instructions
It is vague...but if you go back to first point. Still says leave home for 4 reasons and no more than 5kms.
It’s the top bit actually where it gets you. “Leave home: 4 reasons and stay local (5km)”
Ah I see.
Craig
I like your thinking on that one.
Maybe there is a glimmer of hope that we could get wet before 26 October, another 7 weeks / 12 weeks total banned from surfing just seems harsh.
Dan the man you're my fking hero
Nothing on the regions as of yet
Wonder how many hypocrites there are out there who surfed when it was banned and then still complain about people travelling more than 5km to surf...
yea it was crowded in Torquay this week. So tomorrow i'm gonna go for a nice long drive to get away from the blowins who crowd out torquay. will probably surf in the middle of nowhere on my own
You’ll probably get a more regional version of your self that’ll tell you to fuck off back to Torquay! Oh that’s right you know heaps of secret spots!
haha looking forward to it, pretty sure i surfed the better bank on my own last time. I didn't even have to tell anyone to fuck off
That’s tough but hopefully everyone does the right thing and we’re in a position in a few months where we can get back to the new normal.
Please don’t fuck it up for everyone by being selfish.
Stage 4 with a bit of lipstick on it until at absolute best October 26.
Go and get fucked Andrews you absolute hack. Your one main job was protecting the state from this virus and the biggest danger spot was the hotels. You fucked it. You’ll never live this down.
Yep
Yep it's cooked.
The goals for case numbers too are farcical.
It's going to take a long long time for Victoria and Melbourne to recover from this. On the road to being the backwater state for sure.
Well it’s pretty much as bad as it could’ve been. Oct 26th isn’t any guarantee either. 5 cases a day avg feels like a pipe dream
I honestly don’t know what to say. It’s farked
If the tub is open that’s some consolation but then do we get pinged for travelling more than 5 kms to get there?
Hopefully they have one of those clarifying statements eg. ‘’My pool is more than 5kms away, can I go there to swim?’ ‘Yes’
At least at the pool, they already track who’s been there, when they were there and where they live.
So from a Mgt plan and tracing point of view, let alone the fact it is easy to space out there, it’s a pretty safe option.
But, I do t like our chances until after October.
Also, how long can a start up business last with no revenue?
I honestly think that 5 cases a day for 2 weeks straight in a city of 5 million, if they are going to include aged care where it’s rampant, could be near impossible to get to.
They are basing that target on how wave 1 went, if you can even call it a wave now looking back.. With wave 1 it never truly took hold out in the community, but this time it has.
We could be waiting a very long time to get down to 5 a day, so I’d be interested in what their modeling tells us is plan by if by end of November for example we aren’t there.
This might be a completely wild idea, but do we bring back the hotels, but it’s for healthcare/aged care workers. Look after them in there for a month, reducing any community exposure outside of there. Shuttle bus to and from the accom.
Obviously you’d need to take the mgmt responsibility decisions away from the state government, so someone with half a brain would need to run it this time
OMG. Make people who are most at risk have to suffer so you can go surfing?
I know it’s fucked but if everyone does the right thing we’ll get there as fast as possible.. Encouraging people to fuck up will only make this last longer.
I could be wrong but I think he’s talking about more than just going surfing. Like you know, maybe working, or seeing family or friends..
Feeling for you guys in Melbourne
Ahh at what point did I mention surfing champ? This is in order to crush community transmission once and for all and get the whole of society back going, you know all those businesses going under and people out of work? Let me guess, your work is secure or you’re someone who has secured a pay rise out of this to do nothing all day? Which one is it?
They keep saying aged and healthcare workers still go home and are out in the community, so for 1 month let’s trial something to well and truly rid us of it in the community. Otherwise I fear we’re just pissing into the wind trying to get down to 5 a day for 14 days.
Sounds like a sensible idea Dx3
Cheers, it’s getting to the point where this extended lockdown is only going to get us so far.
Last time it was the hotels the biggest risk to society, now its aged care and healthcare.
The old adage of doing the same thing and expecting a different result is the definition of insanity. Come October 26 we could finally reach the point of insanity.
Yeah, apologies DX3, not sure why I read that as for surfing. There’s certainly a lot more going on than that. I suppose we all need to chill a bit.
Anyway, my point still stands. You’re talking about imprisoning probably 200,000+ Victorians, those who are risking their lives to protect the rest of us, and you’re still not going to catch all the community transmission. So you still need to have something in place otherwise we’re fucked again.
If you look at NSW they have done an excellent job with contact tracing and provided you can get the numbers down it should be possible to stay on top of it and open up. So suggesting that it’s not possible isn’t true.
Finally, the lockdown is obviously having an impact on numbers. If we could take a shorter lockdown, we’d all out our hands up for it now, but we didn’t a number of months ago. If hindsight has taught us anything it should be to stick with it and do it right otherwise we’ll be back here again in two months time.
Yeh mate apologies accepted, I ain’t even missing surfing that much, but my mates and family who are barely getting by with their jobs and businesses fucked is awful. I also would not for one second tell them to chill, but assuming you meant ya swellnet crew.
In terms of contract tracing, I hope to god our state is now up to scratch with the rest of the country, especially NSW as you said who need to be commended for their job keeping the 2nd wave at bay.
If we can get our community number right down, but it’s still going on in health care environments, surely then our contract tracing can get to work and we can open up more. As I said, I really fear what happens Oct 26 if we haven’t hit the 5 case a day target.
Cheers DX. My comment should read “I” need to chill a bit. Apologies again.
Anyway, I can certainly agree with your perspective above. And if we’re still in strife by late October then I’d have to rethink my objections to your possible solution.
they already have that - "Hotel for Heroes".
That is for health workers who have tested positive or are a close contact but cannot self isolate at home.
I wouldn’t say it’s a good thing being locked in a hotel room for two weeks but it’s better than forcing your house mates to quarantine at home with you.
Pretty different to forcing all health workers to go to work and then self isolate from their families for a month.
Wouldn't wanna be a cop for the next few weeks.
Natives are gunna get restless....
Been surf on the MP last few days
about 20 odd blokes out yesterday, only recognised 5 people with in there 5 km,
3 were from the same family.
Lots of possible travelling transmitters doing the wrong thing. Everyone of them were in their early 20s.
Must be frustrating for the Melbourne crew who are trying to keep their cool and do the right thing.
How’s the banks looking?
one long close out from gunna to Portsea
COVID dogs finbob?
Can’t confirm they had covid but confirm metro kooks
surely there is a case to remove the peninsula from the lockdown zone now we are pretty much on par with Geelong from what I can see....
18 active cases for a population of 150k+. Since we had 37 cases in 1 Mornington aged care home a couple weeks ago you could assume the majority are confined there (with the remainder probably linked to Frankston hosp). MP has been collateral damage from day 1 of this pandemic
Unfortunately for the MP folk, the MP is now just an outer suburb of Melbourne. Look at a map, the MP suburbs connect all the way into the city. It's not like Geelong where you have long stretches of nothing but farmland. So an MP local talking about Melbourne kooks and dogs is just talking about themselves. It's ok, they just need to learn to live with their new nickname.
Nah
You didn't see the covid dogs and metro kooks sign on Gunnamatta surf cam dx3?
It's ok, just a joke man.
theres no way I'd insult my dog like that...
Yeh I saw it, actually thought it was hilarious, though can't work out why a metro kook would put that sign up about himself. Guess covid has sent a few people a bit mad
hahaha
pretty sure on the drive to covid dog town ya go past a few farms
there are some wine farms, covid dog hobby farms, Christmas tree farms, there is even 2 human shit farms, actually come to think of it there are probably way more farms from the southern peninsula to covid dog town than from geelong to covid dog town.
Wine farms, otherwise known as vineyards...
Dunno if they were covid dogs, but they were acting like covid knobs.
Banks are good if ya like juicy fat burgers. Shit rock had one bloke out.
The rooster tail has lost all deposits,
Nose rings is just deep water.
Apparently toy tractors has a good sand. But thats outside most crews 5km.
No sign of the OGs I think they only surf when its over 12.65 ft
I think we look towards the rise of the NG’s...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8516257/Mornington-Peninsula-CO...
classic
ha
How old are you Finbreath? 15,16?
Post up a cupla pics of yourself so the Melbourne kooks can judge how hard you rip.
Don't take me too serious ringmaster, i'm just being a cock head.
Back ya self finnbob. Ringy, you can stick too the West Coast of things. Let us talk shit over here.
don't need a photo its the guy with the head of robin williams and arse of a wombat
'real hard ass dude'
bahahaha
I often feel sorry for the crew who live and surf on the MP or the Surf Coast. At least for Melb crew, we can drive far, far away from people like Finbob after a surf.
Dont feel sorry us mate, think it’s the other way round.
yep....you could say I'm clutching at straws,
There may be some small advantages to living in the city (pre-covid of course)....but yeah you can't argue with the 1hr+ drive for waves!