Easing surf with plenty more swell sources on the way
Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 28th August)
Best Days: Saturday, Sunday protected spots, Tuesday
Recap
A touch more size and energy yesterday with sets to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast with favourable winds, strengthening into the afternoon with a slight drop in size.
Today our stronger and upgraded SW groundswell is filling in with clean waves to 4ft this morning on the Surf Coast, 6ft+ to the east. We should see the swell peaking to 4-6ft and 6-8ft this afternoon as winds ease and become more variable.
This weekend and next week (Aug 29 - Sep 4)
The strengthening frontal system linked to today’s swell pushed quickly east and as it did so it produced wind gusts of 84kt (156km/h) at Hogan Island, sitting in Bass Strait between the Prom and Tasmania’s Flinders Island yesterday evening.
The fast movement east will see the swell drop quickly into tomorrow with the Surf Coast expected to ease from the 4ft range, with 6ft+ sets to the east. Another approaching mid-latitude storm will see winds swing back to the N/NW and freshen, with locations to the east seeing stronger N’ly winds into the afternoon.
We’ll see the swell plateau through Sunday with a reinforcing mid-period W/SW swell from a trailing fetch of strong W/NW winds moving under the country. There’ll also be some infrequent W/SW groundswell from the earlier stages of the frontal progression linked to today’s swell. Sets shouldn’t drop below 3ft on the Surf Coast, with 5-6ft sets to the east.
As the mid-latitude low edges closer winds will become stronger and tricky, out of the N’th Sunday, tending NW through the day.
The track of this low looks to be as EC had it, a bit further north but drifting south-east across us and this will limit the swell generating properties.
It’ll move through Sunday evening, bringing fresh to strong SW winds, easing through the day. We will see some new mid-period swell from the back side of the low to 4ft or so Monday morning on the Surf Coast and 6ft to the east, easing Tuesday as winds quickly revert back to the N/NW. Size wise the Surf Coast should drop back from 2-3ft or so, bigger to the east.
Longer term a significant but distant low moving through the southern Indian Ocean will generate an XXL swell for Western Australia Monday, with the swell arriving across our state Wednesday with a lot less size and consistency owing to swell decay.
The size from this low looks minimal with very infrequent sets building to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east. Winds look to strengthen out of the N’th and this will be ahead of another strong and closer-range mid-latitude low pushing in and across us. The size potential from this low is unsure so check back here Monday for the latest. Have a great weekend!
Comments
Craig I love your detailed reports. But it would be awesome if your report could have a quick summary at the start like:
Today 3-4ft building light North winds
Sat 3ft dropping Light both winds
Sun 4ft SW winds abating
Something like that?
Hey Suitsurfer.
We actually had that format years ago, but we've since taken that away and most of the detail is in the notes. We also used to bold each day in the text but while not seeming like that much extra work, that for all the Forecaster Notes and Summary adds a bit of time on.
Taken the time to write it, take the time to read it! :)
I was elected to lead, not to read
Hi Craig - I’d love it if you could hide any real swell estimation and wind estimation , perhaps do away with the graph , make the report even more wordy, maybe a 3 page essay with reference to global politics and climate change regularly , perhaps the odd COVID reference and update and finish with a summation of Australian and New Zealand pacific initiatives . Yep, that’d be the best report Craig . Cheers brother
Hi Craig
Can you let me know what Sunnymeade will be doing 12/13 October? Water temp as well if you wouldn't mind.
Cheers guv.
Patrick
morning or afternoon?
Crowded and angry . Yep that’s the report
Always enjoy your detail Craig ,
Much appreciated!
Worth every cent to subscribe
Cheers mate
"Dawn Report: Looking pretty strong across the open beaches this morning, easy 6ft+ sets on offer that are overpowering most breaks. Light NW winds are favouring Flinders and Western Port where it's quite a bit smaller, but worth a paddle if you're in the region. Tune in to the updated photo report around 8am."
Is surfing legal for Melburnians (MP included) now? Going by how busy Western Port was yesterday you'd think it is
“Worth a paddle if you’re in the region” ffs encouraging people to break the law, well done Swellnet. Have a look at the WP cams now, easiest money vicpol could ever make
...appears vicpol isn’t that interested just looking at the trigger cams this morning.
I haven't heard of anyone getting fined if they are within there 5 km and exercising
I very much doubt the 10-20 ppl you could see at each spot on the cams have a $2m+ primary residence in the 5km radius
Beautiful...
Doesn't look outrageously windy on the Fairhaven cam right now, but just down (or up?) the road at Aireys Inlet, N/NW winds are gusting 53kts (98km/hr).
Mount Williams in the Grampians is gusting 60kts - that's a extremely strong for an inland station, though this location is located at 1150m ASL and the weather station is on the western face of the eastern Grampians ridge line, which would be funnelling this synoptic flow through the valley (and enhancing wind speeds considerably).
Nah - it's pretty damn windy. Direction of the wind and a bit of protection from hill and dunes conspire to make this look tempting.
How’s the ear ican?
Wot?
Standard reply. Sorry Joshy. Ear is feeling great, thanks. Still plugged up with packing and a week and half away from surfing. Post Op for about a week was pretty rugged.
That’s a quick turnaround, and great timing due to lockdown. I’m on waiting list for mine, was about to have it done in March but it’s been put off due to no elective surgery.
You're right good timing. I am very fortunate and thankful. I got mine done in Geelong- the doc got me in just before elective surgery got shut down here. I get to work from home, so recovery has been pretty good overall. Good luck with it Joshy. Hope it goes well for you and you don't have to wait too long.
Cheers mate.
I'm interested to know crowd numbers in the Torquay area yesterday. You there Vic Local?
Put it this way, the police and army are patrolling the Beach's in Torquay after yesterday. And yer I got my burn on big time yesterday, made sure I got my fair share
Sounds like your share wasn’t fair at all.
Sounds like an entitled prick
He was probly hassling grommets at Whites beach.
Ringmaster you're probably one of the creep's who hangs in them sand dunes with binoculars
Killing it hero
ha
I know about "police and army are patrolling the Beach's" - was more wondering about crowds in the water. Do you reckon many crew tried to sneak out of the big smoke and come down for a sneaky paddle?
Burning people isn't real neighbourly.
No i don't think many people from Melbourne were down it was pretty crowded in the water though. no one is working so i guess everyone is surfing now. surfed trash beachie on my own then surfed a popular reef in the arvo with 8 local good surfers and a few young uni students from neighbouring suburb. didn't really need to burn anyone i just know where to sit out the back and get the better wave's
Thanks NWS.
You're copping some flak though...
Hope you're not one of those old blokes riding mini-mals or 50 litre boards in 4 ft surf. You know the type, those guys who use enormous amounts of foam to pick off waves before anyone else starts paddling, and then paddles out the back for a repeat performance on the very next set wave.
I hope that's not you, coz those blokes are the fucking pits in the surf.
I'm probley worse than those kind of guys. I enjoy lighter say 5,6 epoxy boards even though the boards I ride are too small for my age. When I was younger I'd sit on the end section and pick of the scraps even back then I'd get more better waves then most other people. Don't mind paddling out the back letting the first two set waves go for whoever is next in line then paddling for the third best wave in the set. If it ever gets winki like crowd I know I'm fit enough to sit deep on the end section no problem
Interesting comments again VL. I am not condoning the " get a good wave then paddle back out for a repeat performance on the next set wave", but I am defending the right of older guys/girls to ride higher volume boards. There aren't too many sports/physical activities where 60+ yr olds have to compete against 20/30 yr olds. Imagine a 60 yr old (ex AFL) player playing a game there days. How many kicks would he get? Higher volume boards level the playing field, especially when it's a bit smaller. When it's 4 ft or over high volume boards actually become a bit of a liability. eg duckdiving, critical take offs etc. in quality waves. The good surfers on short boards usually get the good ones when it's bigger from my experience. At 60+ I've still got a few years in me yet surfing good quality waves with these types of boards. I'm not ready for Inside Impos and Torquay Pt on a 9ft board, as fun as they can be, just yet.
That to me spells entitled kook.
Everyone in the line up hates those crew who sit solo, deep, or further out......thinking they're the true chargers and it's only they who can handle the bombs. It's even worse that you think you were getting the better waves - what that really means is you were paddling past everyone, to the inside, and going for every first or second wave of the set. Probably only semi in control, speeding past whackable walls and bogging your turns awkwardly, before throwing your arms up in the air pretending you normally surf better.
These guys/girls are never really good surfers, as if they're good they're able to get their share comfortably at the peak, among the crew.
Or they are as VL said - older crew on massive boards who haven't cared what anyone else has thought since turning North of 50.
Of course....I may be wrong, you may rip, you may share, and the crowd may have been sitting too wide or too far in....but I do like to speculate!
Lol
I sometimes get a ripper when the waves are pumping I always let whoever is next in line go for the wave if they are locals or good surfer showing respect. Maybe there are too many sensitive 50 yr Olds in this town who hate being burned by a 20 yr old. Seems to be lots of sensitive people on the forums who can't handle the internet
Haha!
Show me anyone who doesn't hate being burned by 20 years olds!
But yeah...I for one can't handle the internet.
Interesting to view photos on the herald sun Covid blog from yesterday. Looked busy on st kilda esplanade with people walking along the paths, though nobody sitting around so they were actually out exercising. Then there’s the photos of ocean grove beach which is very busy and people just sitting around in groups maskless, in breach of stage 3.
So weird. Was sure Vic Local said it was only Melbourne crew who did the wrong thing and the surf coast locals did everything by the book. Vic Local isn’t full of shit is he?
https://twitter.com/sarahtakesfotos/status/1299870154105389056?s=20
While the people on the beach are still in breach of s3 the herald sun photo of OG is misleading (surprise surprise)
Thanks Geek. Saw that pic in the HS - partly why I asked the question. Good link. Shows you should never trust a single source.
Yep fair call on the busy-ness of the beach in the images, but regardless, you can't just go sit on the beach during stage 3. Gotta be exercising, on the move, not just sitting there enjoying the sun without a mask.
A 600mm lens certainly helps make scenes look a lot busier than they actually are. On the surf coast people were social distancing reasonably well. I didn't see any big groups at all. Only people I saw sitting on the beach were families with toddlers.
Crowd in the surf wasn't that bad despite the shitful run of surf we've had. When it's offshore and a decent size from dawn to dark punters can pick and choose when to surf. Having said that, it's busy now because the swell is so small, low tide is the only time it's reasonable so lots of punters and not many waves.
Thanks VL.
Anyone else think it looked like a surf school was being run in the foreground of the photo in the paper? People sitting on foamies, half wearing steamers on the sand, etc...
Is there anything more frustrating than this new bloody thoughtless excuse for 'news' which is doing the rounds?
Is it any surprise at all that in population centres - people will generally exercise at more outdoor friendly areas - hence making them more crowded. Especially during warmer sunny periods - where - SHOCK HORROR - people may just MAY want to enjoy their daily outing a little more by going to a nicer park, or say the beach or whatever.
I can just picture the armchair police....stuck in their suburban McMansions......coughing up their Cheetos and Toohey's Extra Dry in disgust while watching these 'Covidiots' spreading the disease like fricken crop dusters and making the lock downs longer. They grunt something along the lines of 'Why can't these C@#ts stay at home!' before dozing off to save some energy for the Batchelor or the Masked Singer or whatever.
Far out. I hate the media and I hate what Covid does to the media.
Can't they just go back to lame stories about weather or some shit.
Haha the media has always been like that. In regards to exercise I usually don't have a session out at winki because of the crowd. If I was into jogging I wouldn't run around town in front of everyone. If I was 80 years old there is no way I'd try to get down the staircase at the surf beach
While the photos of OG in the HS were intentionally inflamatory, I was there mid to late arvo with the kids and it was hella busy. A lot of people hanging at the beach and not much exercise going on, although I guess it might have been difficult for those drinking stubbies on the beach with their mates to exercise. I also find I loose interest in exercise when I'm on the beers...
But other than a few groups of dickheads, most people were doing the right thing, masks on and all, even when in the water with their young kids. It's just a shame that some people cleary don't give a shit, including the coppers who came down for a quick look and probably decided i was all too hard to start enforcing the rules. As a parent it was frustrating coz my oldest kid kept asking why the adults were hanging in groups and weren't wearing masks. Makes it hard to explain to him why he can't catch up with their mates in the same way...
Yep I've got relo's in Torquay that said the same. Lots of people out and about doing the right thing, but enough doing the wrong thing to be annoying and showing they don't give a shit. Will always be the way unfortunately, just how humans work
When are those useless journos going to ask Andrews the hard question: When's the wavepool reopening??!!?!?!?
What's he trying to hide??!!?!? China controlling him again. Makes me spit.