Craig

Fun run of waves on the cards

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 22nd January)

Best Days: Surf Coast Friday, Saturday morning (possibly to the east as well), Sunday and Monday mornings both regions, Surf Coast early Tuesday and Wednesday mornings

Recap

Surfable but generally average waves on the coast yesterday with lighter onshore winds and a mix of easing windswell and mid-period swell from 2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 2-3ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Conditions are nice and clean this morning across the beaches, but the swell has dropped right out, tiny and to 1ft on the Surf Coast with 2ft+ sets at dawn on the Mornington Peninsula, since dropping further.

This week and weekend (Jan 23 - 26)

There'll be nothing to surf tomorrow as a strong mid-latitude low starts moving in from the west, bringing fresh N'ly tending strong NW and then W/NW winds through the day, possibly W/SW into the evening.

There's the chance for some small and weak W'ly swell showing later afternoon and into the evening, but Friday and Saturday are much better surf days.

As touched on in the last few updates, the initial fetch generated by the low will be a little too north of our swell window to generate any major size, but a broad and elongated fetch of strong W/SW winds are currently south of WA and in the Bight.

This should produce a mid-period W/SW swell that may be seen on dark tomorrow though more likely early Friday to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east.

Of greater importance is the core fetch of strong to near gale-force W/SW winds that are forecast to be projected towards us through tomorrow. This fetch will again be in our western swell window but should generate a stronger and bigger increase in W/SW swell through Friday afternoon, building to 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Surf Coast magnets, an easy 6ft to the east, if not for the odd bigger cleanup.

The secondary front is looking much weaker and as a result we'll see the surf easing Saturday back from the 3ft range on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east, smaller Sunday.

Winds are still looking great for the Surf Coast with a moderate NW breeze Friday, shifting W/NW late morning and holding until late afternoon when we may see late sea breezes. Saturday should see a morning NW breeze again, possibly N/NW early on the Mornington Peninsula, giving into S/SE sea breezes. Sunday could offer more variable breezes east of Melbourne as the swell fades, NW on the Surf Coast again ahead of sea breezes.

Next week onwards (Jan 27 onwards)

Moving into next week, our good run of SW-W/SW swell from Monday through Thursday is still on track, with a broad and stationary polar low due to generate multiple slow moving fetches of strong to gale-force W/SW winds through our south-west and then western swell windows.

Initially a small and tight polar low will generate a fetch of W/SW gales in our distant swell window, generating an inconsistent SW groundswell for later Sunday but more so Monday morning. Inconsistent 2-3ft sets are due on the Surf Coast, and 4-5ft to the east, while into the afternoon some new mid-period SW swell followed by W/SW groundswell is due on Tuesday.

This swell will be generated by a broader fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds south of WA with building surf through Tuesday to 3-4ft+ on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ to the east into the afternoon, easing from a similar size Wednesday morning.

Looking at the local winds and we should variable breezes and clean conditions across most locations Monday morning while W/NW tending SW breezes on Tuesday will favour the Surf Coast, similar Wednesday, though more S/SW into the afternoon. Thursday looks average with S/SE breezes and easing mid-period surf.

Longer term some new W'ly swell is likely next weekend, but more on this Friday.

Comments

Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird commented Wednesday, 22 Jan 2020 at 11:39am

onya craigos

UTFS

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Wednesday, 22 Jan 2020 at 12:29pm

Hell yeh! A lovely little summer run :)

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 22 Jan 2020 at 1:13pm

For the West Coast.

Funny though, no doubt if there was swell today, that North wind would do that shift to NNW. But alas, no swell so just stays the clean side of North.

LoL

I am the bone

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 22 Jan 2020 at 1:15pm

Ha, yes indeed. Though what about last week when it was the same but too big for the beaches..

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 22 Jan 2020 at 8:25pm

Yes. True. But at least when there’s swell it provides some sort of glimmer of hope perhaps at some point through the tide swings that something may pop up.

No swell is just a coffin welded shut haha!

I am the bone

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Thursday, 23 Jan 2020 at 9:38am

Surfcoast Forecast 24 January onwards

-absolute wave drought since November

-a few days of slow 2 to 3 ft swell with offshores coming up

-Australia day long weekend combined with end of school holidays

Verdict: A freaking shitshow with crowds of biblical proportions from Friday to Monday.

Wavepool should be good but!!!!

VicRhino's picture
VicRhino's picture
VicRhino commented Thursday, 23 Jan 2020 at 10:09am

Might be packed but some waves beats no waves I guess...

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Thursday, 23 Jan 2020 at 10:16am

Nice weather too. Going to be busy as.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Thursday, 23 Jan 2020 at 12:08pm

Judging from what I saw past Cape Otway yesterday, this weekend is going to be an absolute shit show on the West Coast.
Yesterday was waist high and really inconsistent down south, and there was 17 surfers across 2 very shitty left hand banks. Still more crew getting suited up when I fled the scene.
It's like people can't do some basic fucking maths these days. 1 wave every 10 minutes. 10 people in the water. Even if you're getting more than your fair share, it's still only 1 shitty wave per hour. FFS people, stop paddling out when the number of surfers in the water is already stupidly high. You're not going to have a decent surf and you're just fucking it up further for those already in the lineup.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 23 Jan 2020 at 1:02pm

Sounds like a whole lotta fuel burned for not much. We once did the city to Lefties (350km), take off well before dawn, got there and it was waist high. With a howling offshore to rub salt in. Did you go for a look around elsewhere VL?

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Thursday, 23 Jan 2020 at 1:06pm

"Sounds like a whole lotta fuel burned for not much." Lucky I was in a super efficient small turbo diesel that does 1000km to a 40 later tank.
Didn't check elsewhere as the place I checked picks up all available swell. Watched for 20 + minutes and saw a couple of waist high waves ridden. Did some site-seeing instead of making the crowd worse.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Thursday, 23 Jan 2020 at 2:09pm

what car you drive?

I am the bone

A Salty Dog's picture
A Salty Dog's picture
A Salty Dog commented Thursday, 23 Jan 2020 at 1:07pm

It's surprising the number of people who can't walk another 150 meters or so and surf a bank with no one on it, but jump in with 15 or 20 others!!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 23 Jan 2020 at 1:46pm

One of my pet hates and exactly as you described.. the economics don't work so why paddle out. Go find another bank or wait it out.

Also the amount of times I'll suss out a little rip bowl bank away from the crowds and then get a couple which are hard to find, for then people to paddle over and start getting in the way/hassling etc. Kills me.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Thursday, 23 Jan 2020 at 2:17pm

it's not surprising, just that 90% of cunts out there suffer from sheep syndrome.

it does kinda go both ways. say there was 5 people with no clue out on one wave and there is no one on a better wave at the same beach, the people who suffer from the syndrome will actually paddle out where there is more guys leaving the better wave untouched. It happens more times than not. Its like my gurls choosing the restaurant when we on holidays - go to the place with more people, the foods better. I don't agree haha

I am the bone

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler commented Thursday, 23 Jan 2020 at 5:58pm

the other day at Cumberland river went out with a couple of mates and there were peaks across the whole stretch of beach, and one guy paddled out and sat right with my mates and then they took the piss and paddled to a section of the beach with no waves and all paddled together to see if the guy would follow and then he did and then they suddenly stopped and paddled back the other way and he followed again, meanwhile we were making sheep noises and laughing our heads off

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Friday, 24 Jan 2020 at 8:08am

Has anyone tried, when you are out alone or with a mate on a little peak, and people are checking from the foredune, falling off every single wave? Almost always, they go and move on looking for another spot!

poket-roket's picture
poket-roket's picture
poket-roket commented Thursday, 23 Jan 2020 at 5:11pm

Few weeks back had a heaving left hand bank to myself for well over an hour before a couple of frothing groms paddled over. There are plenty of empty waves around if you make the effort. The disclaimer to this is I only managed four waves as there was a super heavy rip pulling away from the takeoff zone. I was surprised no local crew were onto it as it was going off its tits!

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Thursday, 23 Jan 2020 at 6:30pm

Whole lotta sooking going on here. We all know crowds suck.
Sook over !!

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Friday, 24 Jan 2020 at 8:03am

I was on a little peak all by myself once and had 6 goat boats come out and paddle right where I was and proceed to churn butter, thrashing the water around with their beaters. Traumatic experience.

Did a beach walk at about 7 yesterday and there were chest high sets at Torq Pt, with 42 across the whole break.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Friday, 24 Jan 2020 at 9:30am

Geeeez..............

Glad I paddled out in the semi darkness at a local reef this AM with only 1 other bloke for company. Snagged 3 good sets before the masses descended and then it all became a little bit hectic.