OK tomorrow, good surf into next week
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 29th November)
Best Days: Keen surfers tomorrow morning, protected spots Monday morning, early Tuesday, Wednesday morning, Thursday morning
Yesterday's swell seemed to arrive a bit earlier than expected with surf to 3ft on offer from the morning on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east, cleanest to the west of Melbourne ahead of a late morning change.
Today the swell is hanging in there to 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft to the east with light and good winds early.
This weekend and next week (Nov 30 – Dec 6)
The weekend isn't looking too flash, but workable, with today's swell due to ease in size and power as the period drops away from this afternoon.
Winds won't be too bad with a light to moderate S'ly in the morning tomorrow, freshening through the day. Easing 2-3ft sets are expected on the Surf Coast swell magnets, around the 4ft+ range to the east.
Sunday will be smaller again and strengthening W/NW winds will favour the Surf Coast, but don't expect anything over 1-2ft.
Later in the day some weak westerly windswell may be seen, but we look ahead to next week for all the size from a strong and persistent polar frontal progression up and into us.
The intensity and structure of this progression has changed a little, with an overall slight downgrade in the expected size through next week.
Winds look generally favourable for protected spots though and there'll be plenty of fun surf days, especially considering we'll be in December.
The first polar front will develop well south of WA this evening, projecting a fetch of strong SW winds up through our south-western swell window Saturday, weakening into Sunday while encroaching on the state.
This should produce a mid-period SW swell for Monday, filling in during the morning and reaching 4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ to the east. The early will likely be a bit smaller and more to 3ft and 5ft respectively. There'll also be building levels of localised swell from a secondary front projecting up and into us through the day.
We'll fall in between fronts and swells early Tuesday though the size should maintain that to Monday, with a late pulse of new stronger SW swell from the strongest of the fronts pushing up and into us through the day.
We should see sets reaching 5ft on the Surf Coast into the afternoon, 6-8ft to the east, easing slightly from 4-5ft and 6-8ft respectively Wednesday.
Following Tuesday afternoon's front the activity will slowly weaken and drift east across Tassie and out of our swell window.
As a result the swell should drop away into Thursday and further Friday.
Coming back to the local winds and a fresh to strong W/NW breeze is due Monday morning, shifting W/SW late morning, similar Tuesday but possibly shorter lived offshores in the morning. Wednesday will again see W/NW winds, shifting SW late morning and then W/NW Thursday until early afternoon. We'll have to go over this again on Monday but most days are looking good for a surf. Have a great weekend!