Craig

Improving week of surf, large and powerful at stages

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 16th September)

Best Days: Exposed beaches Wednesday morning, Thursday experienced surfers, Friday, Sunday Surf Coast

Recap

A weak easing swell from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast, cleaning up across the exposed beaches to the east later in the day as winds improved.

Sunday was smaller but nice and clean to 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula through the morning, smaller and to 2ft on the Surf Coast. A new mix of W/SW swells due into the afternoon arrived for the late session as winds held, offering great 3-4ft+ waves on the Surf Coast swell magnets for those who stuck around late.

This swell has held into this morning though with average and deteriorating conditions. A stronger and bigger SW groundswell due to fill in this afternoon is now not on the cards, with the low linked to this being weaker and moving faster through our swell window.

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This week and weekend (Sep 17 – 22)

The weakened low linked to this afternoon's small SW groundswell still generated a healthy fetch of S/SW gales through our southern swell window last night and this morning, producing a moderate sized S/SW groundswell for tomorrow morning.

The Surf Coast should see easing 3-4ft waves, 5-6ft to the east but a moderate S/SE wind will create average conditions.

Wednesday morning looks much better with the swell reaching a low point under a N/NE offshore. The Surf Coast looks small and to 2ft+, with 3-4ft waves to the east, but this will only be a temporary low point.

A new SW groundswell should arrive through the middle of the day and kick into the afternoon, ahead of our larger, long-period S/SW groundswell overnight and Thursday.

The very intense low linked to this swell has formed south-west of WA, with a great pre-frontal fetch of severe-gale NW winds followed by the better aligned and stronger polar storm-force W'ly fetch.

The low will push slowly east today and tomorrow while maintaining strength the whole time, passing under Tassie and out of our swell window tomorrow evening.

Wednesday's increase in SW groundswell will be linked to the pre-frontal NW fetch and we should see the Surf Coast building to 3-5ft, with 6ft+ sets to the east as winds swing less favourable and to the E/NE (S/SE sea breeze Phillip Island).

The larger and more powerful, long-period S/SW groundswell is due to arrive overnight with Thursday morning coming in at 6-8ft across the Surf Coast magnets, 10ft range to the east and with a fresh and sometimes strong N/NE breeze. There's the chance for the odd bigger cleanup at times early Thursday so it will only be for the experienced.

The swell will ease through the day, smaller Friday (3ft+Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east) with stronger N tending NW winds ahead of a late SW change.

Into the weekend a new inconsistent W/SW groundswell is due across the state, produced by a strong polar front pushing up and towards WA tomorrow through Wednesday and then in a much weaker form, east through the Bight.

A moderate sized and inconsistent swell is due to fill in Saturday, building to a peak through the afternoon around 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft to the east. Winds look dicey and onshore from the SW though on Saturday, better Sunday and NW tending W/NW.

Beyond this there's nothing too significant on the cards for next week at this stage, but more on this Wednesday.

Comments

geoff.baun's picture
geoff.baun's picture
geoff.baun commented Monday, 16 Sep 2019 at 1:04pm

Hi Craig,

Why are all the models undercalling the size for thurs morn compared to the notes?

Sounds like its going to be real solid.

Cheers
G

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 16 Sep 2019 at 1:34pm

Seriously Geoff. Why don't you send out a freekin invitation?
Maybe, Swellnet can call in the IT guys, so in-depth chats like the one above can occur on a private forum for subscribers only. Good idea?

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

viccokook's picture
viccokook's picture
viccokook commented Monday, 16 Sep 2019 at 1:54pm

Seriously Vic Local you going to pot every other subscriber for asking for some more info. Swellnet ain't the only surf website out there and hardly going to have a major influence on crowds. Swellnet crew need to give some info to non subscribers to get them interested, sign them up and pay the bills. Hope you aren't this cranky in the line up, no wonder you keep getting snaked.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 16 Sep 2019 at 2:29pm

FWIW, this idea was discussed some time ago (in the comments of one of the subscription articles, I think), and it's in the development pipeline.

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango commented Monday, 16 Sep 2019 at 2:32pm

I agree with VL.

Craig's headline was low-key yet encouraging, but the question asked, despite being totally legitimate regarding the modelling/forecasting issue, gives the game away unnecessarily.

I think you're mistaken, viccokook, because what swellnet says does have a significant impact on crowds from all the anecdotal evidence out there. Not all the time, but a lot of the time.

HKFC's picture
HKFC's picture
HKFC commented Monday, 16 Sep 2019 at 3:18pm

Yeh jeeeezus Geoff, way to tell people that it's going to be solid! Doesn't take a meteorology degree to know that the gigantic low pressure system is going to do something.
I've started waxing up the deck pad on my 5'4 Hypto Krypto in anticipation! Next stop Winki! Ahh shit did i just blow up a secret spot?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 16 Sep 2019 at 2:13pm

Yeah they sometimes do with these longer-range long period swells. Hence the value of the notes :)

geoff.baun's picture
geoff.baun's picture
geoff.baun commented Monday, 16 Sep 2019 at 2:22pm

Thanks mate. Thought that was the case. I remember being in Rote in Indonesia a few years back and a 1m swell at 20secs was producing some solid double overhead sets at exposed reefs. Much bigger than what the swell would have suggested.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 16 Sep 2019 at 2:39pm

VIC KOOK. Short answer is yes. Forecasts have a massive effect on crowds. At least Craig has the decency to not add to the notes when crew ask for really specific info.
And FWIW, I’m mellow in the water. Wait my turn and pay really close attention to who has been waiting longer. anyone who snakes me gets burnt. That’s how the system works.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

viccokook's picture
viccokook's picture
viccokook commented Monday, 16 Sep 2019 at 4:42pm

Vic Local. My point is any nuffie can work out its going to be pumping across a number of sites. The overall surf websites fuel the crowds, not specifically Swellnet. We all create this by paying our subscriptions so we cant go getting up in arms about the crowd effect. FWIW I think most of us are pretty mellow in the water around here. The main breaks can be competitive, thats what you expect at high quality spots but nothing like the goldie, nth nsw, indo. Midweek you can generally score manageable respectful crowds, weekends go searching. We all get the 'system', just not everyone follows it. You're preaching to the choir banging on about it on here.

plops's picture
plops's picture
plops commented Monday, 16 Sep 2019 at 7:53pm

I’m guessing that you’re some old crusty Torquay region local? You most likely only surf Winki, others spots are deemed not up to your standards. In reality you don’t surf other spots as you fear change and can’t surf in a rip or anything that shifts around in which you maybe forced to paddle to protect your precious spot in the line up. You might also be divorced and lonely, hence why you spend your nights trolling inquisitive swellnet subscribers who are looking to further their understanding of surf forecasting.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 16 Sep 2019 at 8:57pm

Wow plops. Zero out of 10. I really hope you are not studying psychology. But hey if it makes you feel better trying to "analyse" a "troll", knock yourself out buddy. Whatever floats your boat.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

adam12's picture
adam12's picture
adam12 commented Monday, 16 Sep 2019 at 11:36pm

I reckon you nailed it Plops, except the old crusty torquay local bit, I reckon he's lobbed in the last 10 years or so. The old boys wouldn't bother bitching like he does, the ones I know are just glad they got the best of it when they did and most don't bother with Winki anymore, full of 'Vic Locals', AFL players on days off and snakes. Other reefs, old shoulders, friendlier line ups, sold up and moved out when the shit show showed up. I'm not one of them, at 58 I still feel young, and I live on the Bellarine now, but I know a few of them and still surf with some of them sometimes and can't say I've heard them bitch about what Craig's headlines are or who asks what on Swellnet. I first paddled out at Winki in 1975 and for decades she was my first love, but I last surfed there in 1999, had one of the best sessions of my life and decided to leave it at that. I'm still tempted to go back, I even dream about Winki sometimes, but like I said, other reefs, old shoulders, friendlier lineups. The last time I was there I was chatting with a legit. crusty old local who said to me it was like having this beautiful girlfriend who you shared your youth with and now she's an old slut and everyone's fucking her. Made me laugh.

gazzee's picture
gazzee's picture
gazzee commented Monday, 16 Sep 2019 at 3:16pm

understating the size increases the crowds anyway....say its going to be huge and 90% of crew wont show anyway....

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Tuesday, 17 Sep 2019 at 4:09pm

correct :)

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 16 Sep 2019 at 7:05pm

What’s unfavorable about E/NE?

I am the bone

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror commented Monday, 16 Sep 2019 at 7:23pm

EnE and a billion foot, No good for any where except insides suck rock De Bone.
Maybe diamond bay will turn on .

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 16 Sep 2019 at 7:40pm

We can go to jubes for the tubes.

I am the bone

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror commented Tuesday, 17 Sep 2019 at 6:50am

maybe muddies for some muddies

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Monday, 16 Sep 2019 at 9:04pm

Been a while since a 10ft swell and ne winds have combined hasn’t it?