Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 16th September)

Best Days: Exposed beaches Wednesday morning, Thursday experienced surfers, Friday, Sunday Surf Coast

Recap

A weak easing swell from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast, cleaning up across the exposed beaches to the east later in the day as winds improved.

Sunday was smaller but nice and clean to 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula through the morning, smaller and to 2ft on the Surf Coast. A new mix of W/SW swells due into the afternoon arrived for the late session as winds held, offering great 3-4ft+ waves on the Surf Coast swell magnets for those who stuck around late.

This swell has held into this morning though with average and deteriorating conditions. A stronger and bigger SW groundswell due to fill in this afternoon is now not on the cards, with the low linked to this being weaker and moving faster through our swell window.

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This week and weekend (Sep 17 – 22)

The weakened low linked to this afternoon's small SW groundswell still generated a healthy fetch of S/SW gales through our southern swell window last night and this morning, producing a moderate sized S/SW groundswell for tomorrow morning.

The Surf Coast should see easing 3-4ft waves, 5-6ft to the east but a moderate S/SE wind will create average conditions.

Wednesday morning looks much better with the swell reaching a low point under a N/NE offshore. The Surf Coast looks small and to 2ft+, with 3-4ft waves to the east, but this will only be a temporary low point.

A new SW groundswell should arrive through the middle of the day and kick into the afternoon, ahead of our larger, long-period S/SW groundswell overnight and Thursday.

The very intense low linked to this swell has formed south-west of WA, with a great pre-frontal fetch of severe-gale NW winds followed by the better aligned and stronger polar storm-force W'ly fetch.

The low will push slowly east today and tomorrow while maintaining strength the whole time, passing under Tassie and out of our swell window tomorrow evening.

Wednesday's increase in SW groundswell will be linked to the pre-frontal NW fetch and we should see the Surf Coast building to 3-5ft, with 6ft+ sets to the east as winds swing less favourable and to the E/NE (S/SE sea breeze Phillip Island).

The larger and more powerful, long-period S/SW groundswell is due to arrive overnight with Thursday morning coming in at 6-8ft across the Surf Coast magnets, 10ft range to the east and with a fresh and sometimes strong N/NE breeze. There's the chance for the odd bigger cleanup at times early Thursday so it will only be for the experienced.

The swell will ease through the day, smaller Friday (3ft+Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east) with stronger N tending NW winds ahead of a late SW change.

Into the weekend a new inconsistent W/SW groundswell is due across the state, produced by a strong polar front pushing up and towards WA tomorrow through Wednesday and then in a much weaker form, east through the Bight.

A moderate sized and inconsistent swell is due to fill in Saturday, building to a peak through the afternoon around 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft to the east. Winds look dicey and onshore from the SW though on Saturday, better Sunday and NW tending W/NW.

Beyond this there's nothing too significant on the cards for next week at this stage, but more on this Wednesday.