Good run of offshore winds and fun westerly swells

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 17th July)

Best Days: Surf Coast every day until Monday, locations to the east Friday afternoon and Saturday


Monday’s large swell eased back a little into yesterday but remained large across all locations through the morning, settling a little into the afternoon. W’ly winds favoured protected spots with the Surf Coast reefs the pick though a little raw.

Today conditions are much cleaner with a great offshore wind and 4ft of swell on the Surf Coast, bumpy and 4-6ft to the east. We’ll see the swell ease off further through the day as winds shift more W’ly.

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This week and weekend (Jul 18 - 21)

These notes will be short as Ben's on annual leave.

The surf will continue to ease into tomorrow, though slowed by a reinforcing mid-period SW swell generated by a front clipping us today. The Surf Coast should hold around 3ft, with 4-5ft sets to the east and a moderate to fresh NW wind will hold all day.

Our W/SW groundswell for Friday and Saturday is still on track, with a strong mid-latitude front that’s currently pushing under WA, generating a fetch of strong W/SW winds, with embedded gales.

We’ll see the swell build in size and power through Friday afternoon, reaching 3ft+ by late in the day on the Surf Coast and likely easing from a slightly bigger 3ft to possibly 4ft Saturday morning. The Mornington Peninsula should build to 4-6ft and then ease from 5-6ft Saturday morning and conditions will improve with a moderate NW tending N/NW breeze on Friday and better but fresh to strong N’ly winds holding all day Saturday.

Wind will shift back to the W/NW tending NW on Sunday along with a new pulse of W’ly swells as a deepening mid-latitude low drops south-east across western Bass Strait.

A burst of W/SW gales might be generated through our swell window, but ECMWF has a much weaker system. I’d expect smaller easing 2-3ft waves on the Surf Coast and bumpy 4-5ft waves to the east.

Moving into next week we’ve got a renewal of windy and building mid-period and W/SW groundswell energy as another strong mid-latitude frontal progression moves in from the west.

The frontal progression will be strongest in our medium-range swell window, south-west of WA (pictured right), but we’ll see large surf moving in on Tuesday next week with what looks to be favourable but strong winds from the north-western quadrant. More on this Friday though.


Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Wednesday, 17 Jul 2019 at 11:34am

Excellent! A nice little run to get the paddle fitness back.

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Wednesday, 17 Jul 2019 at 6:45pm

Craig how windy Saturday and do you think it will ease quickly? Window on the east coast if it isn't blowing a gale and 6+

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 17 Jul 2019 at 7:26pm

Looks 15-20kts and maybe easing a touch later Saturday. Will have a closer look Friday. 

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 18 Jul 2019 at 5:14pm

Have a look at the 10HPa chart Craig, two stratospheric anticylcones giving SE Australia a giant wedgie above the polar vortex.

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Thursday, 18 Jul 2019 at 5:27pm

Anyone know the details about the guy that had to get rescued from Bells / Winki earlier this week? Saw a headline in the Geelong Tiser but it was blocked by the paywall.