Exposed spots until some larger back to back swells next week

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 1st May)

Best Days: Saturday exposed breaks, Monday exposed breaks, Surf Coast Tuesday onwards


Great waves across the Mornington Peninsula with a clean 3-4ft of swell while the Surf Coast was fun on the beaches with slower 2ft sets.

Today similar waves were breaking across both coasts, but we should see a touch more size this afternoon as winds persist from the N/NE.

This weekend (May 2 - 3)

If you've found a good bank the last couple of days, it'll be worth hitting up again tomorrow as this afternoon's SW swell will ease with local offshore winds across both coasts. The Surf Coast should drop from an inconsistent 2ft, with bigger 3-4ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

Come Sunday a small but average W'ly swell is due across the Surf Coast under W/NW winds, generated by a strong but unfavourably positioned cut-off low currently pushing east through the Bight.

This should only offer inconsistent 2ft waves with larger 3-4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

Next week onwards (May 4 onwards)

Monday morning will be another good day for exposed breaks as Sunday's W/SW swell fades and winds strengthen from the N/NE ahead of a late shift to the W/NW.

Tuesday's medium sized and long-range W/SW groundswell is still on track, but we've now got a larger short-range swell due to arrive at the same time, creating a busy mix of swells.

The long-range swell has been generated and is continuing to be generated by a strong polar low pushing up towards Western Australia.

This swell by itself is due to build to an inconsistent 3-5ft on the Surf Coast during the afternoon with 6-8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, but a vigrous and strengthening cut-off low pushing in from the west should produce a larger short-range W/SW swell for the late afternoon.

This should see bigger 4-5ft+ surf on dark across the Surf Coast and 8ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula but with strong N/NW tending W/SW winds.

Tuesday should be clean on the backside of the swell as winds swing back to the NW with easing 3-5ft surf on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

Into Thursday afternoon and Friday morning a larger SW groundswell from a stronger and better aligned polar front is due, with the Surf Coast likely to see bigger 6ft+ sets with 8-10ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds on the building side of this swell will be onshore from the W/SW, but as it starts to ease Friday conditions look excellent for the Surf Coast with morning NW winds.

A third strong SW groundswell is then on the cards for next weekend, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend.


mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free commented Monday, 4 May 2015 at 10:43am

Any reason models showing Friday May 8 SW swell for Western Vicco 220 degrees but WSW for Surf Coast at 240 degrees.


thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 4 May 2015 at 10:44am

That'd just be the model resolving the swell direction as it refracts in past Cape Otway. Western Vicco is more open thus a truer reflection of the regional swell direction. 

Lachie brown's picture
Lachie brown's picture
Lachie brown commented Monday, 4 May 2015 at 11:48am

Hey craig

With all this strong swell and winds coming through do you recken it will be okay to surf at pt leo this weekend in the groin or crunchies or will it be too windy
thanks heaps