Low in the Tasman to start spring, but another downgrade likely

freeride76

Low in the Tasman to start spring, but another downgrade likely

freeride76

There’s a troughy pattern in play at present, with a long trough snaking from inland QLD down to the Central/Southern NSW Coast. Return flow off the back of a retreating high is feeding N’ly winds into the trough line. We’re expecting a front to interact with the trough overnight Thurs to form a low pressure trough in the Tasman.

NE windswell episodes mixed with small S swell pulses this week and into the weekend

freeride76

NE windswell episodes mixed with small S swell pulses this week and into the weekend

freeride76

We’ve got a reasonably strong high (1032hPa) sitting in the Tasman, with NE winds aimed at Tasmania, slowly drifting NE and weakening as it does so over the next 36-48hrs with the last of a series of powerful storms tracking across the lower Tasman. In the absence of a high pressure ridge we’ll see N to NW’lies.

Surf from the E ands S both get a boost into the weekend as large low pressure trough forms in Tasman

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Surf from the E ands S both get a boost into the weekend as large low pressure trough forms in Tasman

freeride76

The trough is expected to move offshore and merge with a more tropical derived depression to form a large trough of low pressure in the Tasman over the weekend. This has been a feature of synoptic prognostic charts for a few weeks now, with forecasts generally tending to weaken and fall apart as the event unfolds.

Low pressure in the Tasman to kick off spring with plenty of potential

freeride76

Low pressure in the Tasman to kick off spring with plenty of potential

freeride76

A trough will extend along the East coast before a front through the latter half of the week brings vigorous S’ly winds by Fri. The trough is expected to move offshore and merge with a more tropical derived depression to form a large trough of low pressure in the Tasman over the weekend. This has been a feature of synoptic prognostic charts for a few weeks now, with forecasts generally tending to weaken and fall apart as the event unfolds. Lets hope this one comes to fruition to deliver some chunky S-SE swell.