South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 20th Oct)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small  fun leftovers Sat with light morning winds, tending NE and freshening
• Strong N’lies Sun with some NE windswell
• Small NE windswell Mon/Tues/Wed with mod/fresh N-NE winds
• Minor S swell Tues
• Strong S-S/SE swell push from Thurs-Sat
• Looking at tropical developments (possible TC) near Solomons- very low confidence in some minor swell from NE-E/NE- check back Mon for updates

Recap

Pumping surf yesterday from a slow moving Tasman low which intensified mid-week. Surf rapidly built into the 6ft range in the sets across NENSW, smaller 3-4ft in SEQLD with clean conditions under light winds before weak E’ly breezes tended SE through the a’noon. Size has come down off the peak this morning with sets still to 4-5ft from the SE in NENSW (smaller 3ft in SEQLD) and cleanish conditions early with a SW flow now tending light E’ly.

Smaller in SEQLD but still plenty of energy pushing into the Superbank

This weekend (Oct 21-22)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. An approaching complex trough, front and low complex will see freshening N/NE-NE winds across the weekend with a brief period of light/variable winds early on Sat. There’ll still be some leftover swell from the Tasman low with sets easing to 2-3ft.

Not much Sunday. Just some small leftovers from the SE to 2ft with N’lies reaching full strength early in the day, leading to some NE windswell for those with the stomach to surf in the fetch. Backbeaches will be the only chance of a clean (ish) wave. 

Next week (Oct 23 onwards)

Small mixed bag to start the week, with a strong N’ly flow as a low approaches Tasmania. Expect some just surfable NE leftovers and stray E swell to 1-2ft at open beaches. 

That low now moving E of Tasmania is substantially weaker than indicated on Wed, so we’ll just see a small signal of S swell generated by the Bass Strait fetch and a thin fetch SE of Tasmania. Not much to it, just a couple of feet at S facing beaches Tues in NENSW with continuing N’lies and some NE windswell 2-3ft.

S swell will be tiny by Wed with nothing of any substance expected, likely continuing NE windswell and N’lies  across most of the region. 

More action for the end of the week. A following frontal system backed by a strong high in the Bight brings gales to the lower Tasman Wed/Thurs with strong S swell expected to build Thurs. Size up into the 4ft range in NENSW is likely, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD at S facing beaches. Winds will be a problem with the the strong high quickly building a ridge up the coast with freshening S’lies.

The fetch is very broad, basically the entire lower Tasman covered in gales under current modelling. That, along with a proximate fetch of S/SE winds associated with a strong SE surge up the coast suggests plenty of size from the S-S/SE  Fri, persisting into Sat. We’ll see how it looks Mon, but pencilling in sets to 6ft Fri , with a slow easing into Sat seems justified. Winds will be the issue, favouring the Points and hard to find a clean wave elsewhere under a fresh/strong S/SE flow.

The potential TC is unlikely to be a swell source but there is one modelled track where it briefly pushes into the swell window between Vanuatu and New Caledonia, offering some potential for NE-E/NE swell Thurs/Fri. Very low confidence at the moment and likely to be swamped by dominant S-S/SE swell in the event it does occur. We’ll revisit on Mon.

Longer term and the strong high and possible remnants of a TC in the South Pacific may see an elongated trough form across a vast area of the South Pacific (Solomon’s to the North Island) with SE winds feeding into the trough. That may see useful, possibly even sizey SE-E/SE swell late next week. It’s an unusual pattern for October, so we won’t put too many chips on the table just yet. Lets see how it looks on Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!