A big dominant high (1032hPa) is sitting over SE Australia, with a series of powerful fronts passing well to the south and the progression slowed in New Zealand longitudes. The high is slow moving, setting up a dichotomy with N’ly winds across temperate NSW and a more SE flow in a ridge along the sub-tropics. Across all regions we’ll see pulses of S’ly groundswell this week from the deep fetches located in the Far Southern Tasman. 

Into next week and very active Indian Ocean storm track spawns a slow moving massive gyre with multiple (at least 3) back to back to back severe gale fetches which will generate L to XL surf, primarily benefitting the NW and Indonesia. SW WA will be mostly in the storm track and thus subject to a mostly stormy, onshore flow, with the breaks between onshore episodes unlikely to be sufficient for surf to clean up away from a few select winter spots.

Into next week and a fresh, strong high generates a SE surge through Mon that should seed a fresh round of fun surf for CQ.

The headline act is a complex low system approaching Tasmania with an embedded front and linked to a long inland trough. A NE-E/NE infeed into this system is producing swell from that quarter today and as the low clears the swell shadow of Tasmania we’ll start to see swells from the S. Following systems next week look to generate stronger, longer period S’ly swells.