Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed October 18th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small/tiny surf most of next week,  minor S swell wrap Thurs
• E/NE swell Sat
• Strong NE swell Sun
• Strong spike in S swell Mon, easing quickly Tues
• Another strong S swell spike Thurs/Fri

Recap

S swell peaked yesterday morning with sets to 3ft at S exposed breaks, easing during the day under NW winds. Today has seen small leftovers to 0.5-1ft under N/NW winds.

This week and next week (Oct 18 - 27)

Nothing much of interest in the short run. A deep polar low sends some small long period S swell wrap to the Coast tomorrow. Expect some inconsistent 2ft sets under continuing NW winds tending variable in the a’noon under a light troughy pattern.

Easing swells to tiny on Fri.

The weekend is still looking potentially juicy. Building NE windswell through Sat a’noon as a low approaches the Island from the west (see below). Expect size to build into the 3-4ft range under NE winds.

Source of NE-E/NE swell on the weekend as low approaches

Sunday morning sees a strong NE-E/NE swell from infeed into the low with size to 4ft and winds shifting W’ly. Definitely pencil in Sun.

The return flow of SW-S gales on Mon whips up a solid S swell into the 5-6ft range under strong SW-S winds.

Return flow generates spike in S swell Mon

This swell then eases quickly o/night with Tues small leftovers to 1-2ft as the low quickly shifts away.

Further ahead and another strong frontal progression is expected to impact a trough Thurs, bringing fresh/strong S’ly winds and another strong spike in S swell up into the 5-6ft range, potentially holding or rebuilding Fri as the major fetch passes under the state.

We’ll see how this is shaping up on Fri. 

Seeya then.