Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon June 2nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small blend of peak E/NE and S swells Tues, clean through the morning with SW winds freshening in the a’noon
• Front and low forming in Tasman Wed see a spike in short range S swell Wed
• Solid S swell Thurs, likely easing through the day with fresh SW-S/SW winds
• Nice blend of smaller but better quality S-S/SE swells Fri with light winds 
• Small, fun S-S/SE swells this weekend with offshore winds
• Easing swells early next week with a quiet period through the working week

Recap

Fairly muscular mix of S/SE and S swells on Sat saw surf in the 3-5ft range across the region with light morning land breezes and a’noon SE winds. Winds were light into Sun morning with long period S swell filling in more and supplying solid 6ft+ sets (not all areas showed this size- typical for a S swell) with bigger waves reported. We’ve got some fun leftover S swell showing to 4ft across S facing beaches with light land breezes tending to light N’lies through the day.

S groundswell goes end to end at Bondi

This week (Jun 2-6)

A trough of low pressure fed by moist Coral Sea air is currently moving south off the SEQLD/NENSW coast, forming a small surface low later today into tomorrow. A front moving into the Tasman Tues then interacts with the low, causing a robust deepening of the low and a complex pattern as a trough spins off the low and moves north while a further trough of low pressure forms off to the south. Backed by a high to the south of the Bight we’ll see plenty of size from the south from this pattern this week, with conditions improving into the weekend as high pressure moves up over NSW.

In the short run, Tues will still be the low point in swell energy this week with a mix of minor E-E/NE swell from winds feeding into the weak surface low, and S swell. We may see some small, fun surf to 2ft from this source, possibly augmented in the a’noon by some sideband S/SE swell from a powerful fetch developing near the South Island aimed into the Pacific, which may provide some 2ft sets to S facing beaches in the a’noon. Conditions will be clean early under offshore W’ly winds with a freshening SW flow in the a’noon as the low starts to deepen and the front pushes through the lower Tasman. 

The energy cranks right up Wed as strong winds to low end gales develop off the NSW South to Central Coast and into the Tasman. Local winds will quickly tend fresh/strong SW, tending S/SW-S’ly through the day and we’ll see a steep increase in both frontal S and dominant short range S swell- building from 4-5ft to 8ft through the a’noon. Keep expectations pegged fairly low as far as quality, it’ll be raw and ragged at most places, much smaller and cleaner into more sheltered corners due to low swell periods. 

Thursday still looks pretty raw with fresh morning SW breezes tending S/SW through the morning and moderating through the a’noon as the bulk of the strong wind moves northwards with a trough. We’ll be coming off the first big swell peak from Wed but there’ll still be heaps of mid period S swell in the water- up in the 6ft range early, easing through the day to 3-5ft- although S facing beaches will still be on the raw and wind affected side. 

Conditions improve rapidly for Fri as high pressure moves over Central/Northern NSW. Settled weather with light offshore winds and light a’noon seabreezes will see classic surface conditions through the day. Surf-wise, things look pretty good. A secondary low under the South Island anchors a fetch well SW of the South Island Wed into Thurs and that should supply much better quality S swell into Fri. The fetch is a little off-axis for the east coast so size will be limited to the 3-4ft range (5ft sets on the Hunter) but quality will make up for that. 

This weekend (June 7-8)

S-S/SE swell from the South Island fetch will be the main swell source for the weekend and it will be on a slow easing trend as the fetch moves north and rotates even further away from the east coast swell window.

Conditions look to stay absolutely premium though for both days with a synoptic W’ly flow through the weekend as a large low approaches from below the Bight and stalls- establishing W’ly winds right up to the sub-tropics. We should see those winds tend more W through NW on Sun.

Fun sized S-S/SE swell leftovers to 2-3ft on Sat, likely remaining at similar size into Sun. 

Next week (Jun 9 onwards)

At this stage, next week looks quiet.

Low pressure stalls near Tasmania with a continuing W-NW flow across NSW and easing surf through Mon.

The low then weakens and enters the Tasman, with weak winds on the Southern Flank not producing much in the way of surf at all and a W’ly flow continuing through the week.

We’ll be watching for signs of intensification as the low hovers in the Tasman or even spawns a new low off the North Coast. There’s no concrete model guidance yet so we’ll pencil in a working week of small surf next week, with some potential for surf to develop weekend 14-15/6.

Let’s see how it shapes up through the week. 

Seeya Wed for the latest updates.