Not much at all this week, probably better for longboards

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jun 24th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Easing swells this week- looks to be a run of tiny days into the weekend, biggest Tues
  • Keep an eye on some stray sets from the E Wed into Thurs (small and slow) with offshore winds
  • Developing N’lies on Sat with some workable NE windswell Sun 
  • Looking to the S for the next swells, in the week beginning 1/7
  • Possibly S tending SE swells next week but winds look iffy


Nothing too exciting over the weekend with windy S swell to 3-4ft Sat (cleanest early), building a notch into Sun with 4-5ft of S swell on offer, smaller into more sheltered locations. This morning is nice and clean with classic winter offshore conditions and around 3ft of surf from a slightly better S/SE direction, offering up some fun options across the region.

Nice conditions this morning with some fun waves. Downhill size-wise, from here.

This week (June 24-28)

All the action is in the Bight at the moment, with a deep slow moving  cut-off low. The Tasman Sea, by contrast, is looking very mellow with a weak high pressure cell over NSW and a few decaying remnants of the long lasting Tasman Low sitting near New Zealand. Those weak pressure gradients across our main S-SE swell window will lead to a very quiet week swell wise, with mostly offshore winds. Details below.

Not a great deal to froth over this week with tomorrow morning seeing a few clean leftovers to 2 occ. 3ft , dropping back to 2ft or less in the a’noon. Nice clean conditions with W tending NW winds and a light N’ly in the a’noon.

Tiny through Wed and into Thurs with only magnets seeing a 1 occ. 2ft wave. There will be a mostly offshore W’ly flow though, with a light N’ly bias Wed, possibly tending more W/SW Thurs as a small trough moves off the Hunter. Not much to work, with but a few small log waves could be on the menu. A sub-tropical low north of the North Island scooted away to the SE over the weekend and we may see a few stray 2ft sets from the E later Wed into Thurs. Very flukey source though, so keep expectations pegged very low.

The trough and a weak front push through Fri with W winds and an a’noon seabreeze. Nothing much in it- remaining tiny, with minor S swell signal possibly lifting wave heights to 1 occ. 2ft at the best S swell magnets. Again, mostly log surf.

This weekend (June 29-30)

We’ll see N’ly winds freshen this weekend as the cut-off low approaches, with a workable fetch developing off the NSW Coast and NE windswell likely to push up into the 2-3ft range on Sunday as the fetch develops (see below).

Not much at all on Sat at this stage- more tiny surf with W tending NW then N’ly winds.

Sunday has some potential with the NE windswell likely to clean up as winds shift NW then W in the a’noon. It looks to be a small window though as surf drops very quickly once the N’ly fetch gets shunted eastwards. We’ll fine-tune timing through the week.

Next week (July 1 onwards)

Models have been flip-flopping but we are starting to have some confidence on a frontal system and low entering the Tasman next week. It’s likely to be small on Mon and offshore before we see a building trend in S swell later Mon or into Tues. 

Both major models are then suggesting some sort of low moving either into the Central Tasman, or further north.

That would generate S tending SE swells by mid week, with winds likely from the same direction. 

Lets see how it looks on Wed.

Seeya then. 


Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 24 Jun 2024 at 11:00am

All good things..

Stu2d2's picture
Stu2d2's picture
Stu2d2 Monday, 24 Jun 2024 at 1:51pm

Well technically it looks like the same system is gonna set up and stall off East cape (NZ) for a bit..

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 24 Jun 2024 at 1:56pm

You're right! Keeps on keeping on.

Stu2d2's picture
Stu2d2's picture
Stu2d2 Monday, 24 Jun 2024 at 2:28pm

Book a ticket to Dunedin for some 8c water.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Monday, 24 Jun 2024 at 2:55pm

It pumped down there all last week too.

Stu2d2's picture
Stu2d2's picture
Stu2d2 Wednesday, 26 Jun 2024 at 10:36am

Dunedin is nearly always pumping.
A proper NE groundswell is a special treat though.

sean killen's picture
sean killen's picture
sean killen Tuesday, 25 Jun 2024 at 9:50am

Hopefully a few spikes in swell this week cracking weather no waves