Small, flukey swells ahead with mostly offshore winds

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 9th June)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

  • Small E/SE swell leftovers Fri with offshore winds
  • Small mixed bag this weekend- mostly E’ly swell
  • Possible late showing Sun of long period S swell at swell magnets
  • Small surf continues into early next week with mostly offshore winds
  • Small pulse of long period S swell for swell magnets Mon, easing Tues
  • S swell on the cards for later next week- nothing major at this stage


Yesterday saw a nice day of SE-E/SE swell to 3ft, although N’ly winds were a problem for some beaches. Predicted NW winds only showed up on the Illawarra southwards with Sydney up to the Hunter seeing a N’ly flow until dark. Conditions are perfectly groomed today under W’ly winds with some small leftover surf supplying inconsistent 2ft sets. 

Glorious conditions, not much swell on offer

This weekend (June 10-11)

No change to the weekend f/cast with not much expected in the way of swell. Winds do look a little better for Sat as a trough hovers off the coast. Morning W winds should tend W/SW to SW before dropping out and becoming light and variable in the a’noon. That will at least supply groomed conditions for a small E swell signal coming off the top of the North Island (much better aimed at targets to the North). Expect inconsistent 1-2ft surf through the day.

More of the same Sun- small E quadrant swells in the 1-2ft range. Winds should tend more W/NW- W through the morning so conditions will be sublime if you can find a bank making sense of small E swell. Winds are likely to tend light/mod N’ly through the a’noon. We may see some long period S swell show up close to dark with some 2-3ft sets but keep expectations low- it’s more likely to show after the sun has set.

Next week (June 12 onwards)

A quiet start to next week is still on the cards- in fact the whole of next week now looks fairly subdued as a complex low becomes slow moving and drives a mostly offshore flow up the Eastern Seaboard.

Long period swell generated by a low SW of Tasmania on the weekend looks flukey and better aimed up the Tasman Sea pipe but known S swell magnets like the Hunter should see some 2-3ft sets with largely offshore winds and light a’noon seabreezes. Not much elsewhere, with minor levels of E swell in the sub 2ft range.

S swell eases back Tues with 2ft sets at S swell magnets, not much elsewhere and continuing offshore W/NW-NW winds and a’noon seabreezes.

A front pushes across NSW Wed, with a fetch out of Bass Strait and SW winds developing in the corridor SE of the South Coast of NSW. Models have been flip-flopping on the strength of this system with resulting low confidence in size and timing but we’ll pencil in a modest a’noon increase in S swell to 2ft at S facing beaches under a fresh W’ly flow and hopefully upgrade on Mon if it is warranted.

S swell is then expected to peak Thurs in the 3ft range at S facing beaches with winds tending W/SW through the day as the system tracks through the Tasman.

Back to small and weak surf later next week and into the weekend under current modelling as a weak, blocking high sits in the Tasman and another complex low well south of the Bight becomes slow moving. 

That offers some potential for S swell early week beginning 19/6 but thats a long way off so we’ll have t see how it’s shaping up on Mon.

Seeya then and have a great long weekend!


Mcface's picture
Mcface's picture
Mcface Friday, 9 Jun 2023 at 1:46pm

Steve I love your work mate but the "no change to the weekend f/cast" is sometimes overused. Wednesday was flagging for 2ft to occ. 3ft sets from the E on Saturday. Doesn't sound like a great deal of change on paper but the difference between 1-2ft and 2-3ft in the water is substantial when it comes to the enjoyment factor.

What I'm saying is, if you could have a chat to Huey and make the swell go back up to 2-3ft (or greater) that'd be appreciated.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 9 Jun 2023 at 2:10pm

Copy that McFace, bit of Friday sloppiness there.
You're right, that is a significant difference in outlook.
My apologies.

Wax up the groveller- there should be just enough for a shred somewhere.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Friday, 9 Jun 2023 at 8:28pm

McFace take the Black Apache for a Paddle...

Mcface's picture
Mcface's picture
Mcface Friday, 9 Jun 2023 at 9:11pm

Unfortunately the black Apache is no more Udo. Had an encounter with rocks in the Northwest and that was all she wrote. It's a bummer for sure, need to get another bonz in the quiver

Mcface's picture
Mcface's picture
Mcface Friday, 9 Jun 2023 at 9:12pm

No wakkas Steve, now if you could just bring in the swell for us like you have the last three years we'd be all sorted

dannyz's picture
dannyz's picture
dannyz Friday, 9 Jun 2023 at 7:20pm

has that chance of longer period east swell been shifted back to sunday now? seems to be what the models are showing

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 9 Jun 2023 at 7:40pm

There'll be some mid period(10-11 seconds) E swell in the water both days but it's not going to amount to much more than an inconsistent 2ft, tops.

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer Friday, 9 Jun 2023 at 8:22pm

Arhh bring back the previous 3 years

etarip's picture
etarip's picture
etarip Saturday, 10 Jun 2023 at 10:10am

Pretty consistent 2ft this mrng on an open beach couple of hours south of Sydney. Bit of a wait between sets but not too slow.

belly's picture
belly's picture
belly Saturday, 10 Jun 2023 at 5:22pm

Yep same same a few more hours south. No complaints!!