Small, flukey swells ahead with mostly offshore winds
Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 9th June)
Forecast Summary (tl;dr)
- Small E/SE swell leftovers Fri with offshore winds
- Small mixed bag this weekend- mostly E’ly swell
- Possible late showing Sun of long period S swell at swell magnets
- Small surf continues into early next week with mostly offshore winds
- Small pulse of long period S swell for swell magnets Mon, easing Tues
- S swell on the cards for later next week- nothing major at this stage
Yesterday saw a nice day of SE-E/SE swell to 3ft, although N’ly winds were a problem for some beaches. Predicted NW winds only showed up on the Illawarra southwards with Sydney up to the Hunter seeing a N’ly flow until dark. Conditions are perfectly groomed today under W’ly winds with some small leftover surf supplying inconsistent 2ft sets.
This weekend (June 10-11)
No change to the weekend f/cast with not much expected in the way of swell. Winds do look a little better for Sat as a trough hovers off the coast. Morning W winds should tend W/SW to SW before dropping out and becoming light and variable in the a’noon. That will at least supply groomed conditions for a small E swell signal coming off the top of the North Island (much better aimed at targets to the North). Expect inconsistent 1-2ft surf through the day.
More of the same Sun- small E quadrant swells in the 1-2ft range. Winds should tend more W/NW- W through the morning so conditions will be sublime if you can find a bank making sense of small E swell. Winds are likely to tend light/mod N’ly through the a’noon. We may see some long period S swell show up close to dark with some 2-3ft sets but keep expectations low- it’s more likely to show after the sun has set.
Next week (June 12 onwards)
A quiet start to next week is still on the cards- in fact the whole of next week now looks fairly subdued as a complex low becomes slow moving and drives a mostly offshore flow up the Eastern Seaboard.
Long period swell generated by a low SW of Tasmania on the weekend looks flukey and better aimed up the Tasman Sea pipe but known S swell magnets like the Hunter should see some 2-3ft sets with largely offshore winds and light a’noon seabreezes. Not much elsewhere, with minor levels of E swell in the sub 2ft range.
S swell eases back Tues with 2ft sets at S swell magnets, not much elsewhere and continuing offshore W/NW-NW winds and a’noon seabreezes.
A front pushes across NSW Wed, with a fetch out of Bass Strait and SW winds developing in the corridor SE of the South Coast of NSW. Models have been flip-flopping on the strength of this system with resulting low confidence in size and timing but we’ll pencil in a modest a’noon increase in S swell to 2ft at S facing beaches under a fresh W’ly flow and hopefully upgrade on Mon if it is warranted.
S swell is then expected to peak Thurs in the 3ft range at S facing beaches with winds tending W/SW through the day as the system tracks through the Tasman.
Back to small and weak surf later next week and into the weekend under current modelling as a weak, blocking high sits in the Tasman and another complex low well south of the Bight becomes slow moving.
That offers some potential for S swell early week beginning 19/6 but thats a long way off so we’ll have t see how it’s shaping up on Mon.
Seeya then and have a great long weekend!