Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Monday 14th June)

Best Days: Thursday, Saturday, Sunday

Outlook (tl;dr)

• Tuesday will see a 2ft S swell, SW winds for Illawarra and south, W everywhere else 
• Small on Wednesday, NW early tending NE late with infeed ahead of low
• Thursday morning will see a new S/SE swell arrive in the 2ft+ mark as well as a weak NE windswell from infeed of northerlies 
• Friday could change but looking like small swell only for the S swell magnets 
• Solid S/SE swell for the weekend reaching a peak on Sunday morning up around 5-6ft, bigger for the Hunter. Unfortunately it comes with strong S/SW winds so southern corners will be the pick. 

Recap

The surf was relatively small over the weekend with 1-2ft waves out of the E on Saturday. It got particularly slow on Saturday afternoon but conditions were nice, with light offshore winds. 

There was a bit more energy when the sets came on Sunday but it was a bit of a wait for them. Conditions were again nice and clean with an offshore breeze.

Today we have clean 2ft waves as an E swell and S swell combine. Conditions are clean with a light offshore breeze.

The new week

Today’s S swell will build into the afternoon and tomorrow (Tuesday) morning. It’ll become the dominant source by tomorrow morning with some 2ft+ sets. 

Winds will swing around to the SW for the Illawarra around the middle of the day today although for Sydney and the Hunter the westerly should prevail until the late afternoon. Tuesday will see W/SW winds early tending light and variable by the afternoon.

Wednesday morning looks to be the low point in the swell for the week with just a small combination of S and E swells around that 1-2ft mark. Winds will be light and offshore mainly out of the NW before tending stronger out of the NE by the afternoon, so conditions will be cleaner earlier in the day. 

The charts don’t show it very well but Wednesday late into Thursday early we will see a new S/SE swell thanks to strong S/SE winds below NZ with the southwestern flank of a low. I’d expect waves to reach the 2ft+ mark. Late on Wednesday those NE winds feeding into a low will make it a bit bumpy but south facing beaches should pick up most of the swell and still be clean enough. 

Thursday will see some local NE windswell early but the S/SE swell from south of NZ will be the main source of energy. With strong offshore winds along the northwestern edge of a Tasman low conditions will be clean.

The Tasman low will really fire up on Friday with the northwestern flank of the low starting to fire up. Unfortunately this only produces SW swell meaning it'll be poorly aimed. There’ll be a bit of swell for S swell magnets but most of it will be going past the coast. I wouldn’t expect more than 2ft.  

Winds will be W/SW for most of the day, shifting a little more SW in the afternoon especially for the Illawarra.

The weekend and further ahead 

The southwestern flank of the Tasman low will whip up a better swell over the weekend with a peak Sunday morning. Saturday looks like we will see the swell build from 3ft early to 4-6ft at S swell magnets late. 

Winds look to be strong out of the S/SW early, tending more S later in the day. This means you’ll need to head to protected southern corners for cleaner conditions but there won’t be as much swell getting in there. 

The swell will peak on Sunday with waves up around the 5-6ft mark in the morning, bigger for the Hunter. It’ll ease a little into the afternoon but there’ll be solid waves around all day. Winds will be a little lighter but still fresh out of the SW early, tending more S as the day goes on.

The low will move towards NZ with a high setting up in the southern Tasman, bringing more settled conditions for the start of next week as the swell eases from the SE. 

Tune in on Wednesday for an update.