Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 28th August)

Best Days: Sat: strong though easing S'ly swell with light morning winds. Tues: fun leftover S'ly swell with light morning winds. 

Recap: Thursday delivered a fun though inconsistent pulse of south swell, around 2-3ft at south facing beaches. Conditions were clean in the morning with offshore winds, ahead of light afternoon sea breezes. Wave heights eased into this morning but we’re now seeing a stronger south swell build across the coast and the surf is expected to become quite solid for the last few hours of the day ahead of an overnight peak. Winds were SW early but are now moderate to fresh southerly. 

Building S'ly swell lines on the Cenny Coast around lunchtime

This weekend (Aug 29 - 30)

The front responsible for our current building south swell is already departing our swell window. As such, we’re looking at a peak in size overnight and a steady easing trend through Saturday.

At this stage there’s no reason to deviate significantly from Wednesday’s forecast, which was for an early peak in the 4-5ft range at south facing beaches (occ 6ft+ bombs across the Hunter) though becoming smaller from the get-go, easing down about 3ft at south facing beaches by the afternoon and then 1-2ft by Sunday morning.

Expect much smaller waves elsewhere but the odd bigger set across the Hunter. Light winds and afternoon sea breezes will keep conditions clean.

Although the models aren’t showing it well, a small pulse of long period south swell is expected to glance the Southern NSW coast on Sunday afternoon (probably showing best on Monday) from a poorly aligned low and front tracking below Tasmania today. This may rebuild south facing beaches back up into the 2ft+ range into the late afternoon though there’ll probably be very long breaks between the sets, and only reliable south swell magnets will pick up any notable energy. It'll be tiny elsewhere.

Sunday afternoon is also at risk of a freshening northerly wind (which may tend NW later), which could create problems away from all but the most protected northern corners for a period of time during the day. So, keep your expectations low. 

Next week (Aug 31 onwards)

Yet another strong, though rapidly eastward tracking front will push into the lower Tasman Sea on Monday morning, freshening early W’ly winds ahead of a gusty S’ly change through the morning.

Sunday’s outside-chance S’ly tending S/SE swell will hopefully still be in the water (very inconsistent 2ft+ south facing beaches, tiny elsewhere though odd bigger set across the Hunter). Wave heights will increase steadily in the wake of the wind change, pushing 3-4ft+ at south facing beaches in the few hours before dusk. However with the accompanying southerly breeze I’m not expecting a great deal of quality surf on offer; most beaches offering protection from the wind will be much smaller. 

Surf size will peak overnight and then ease steadily through Tuesday with light winds and sea breezes, so south facing beaches will be worth an early surf with inconsistent leftover sets in the 3ft range (smaller elsewhere, odd bigger set across the Hunter). 

A series of strong fronts approaching from the west will freshen northerly winds about the region from later Tuesday through Wednesday and Thursday, generating some short range N/NE swell in the 2ft+ range, in addition to small lingering S/SE swell, perhaps of a similar size at south swell magnets though very inconsistent. No major quality is expected.

The aforementioned fronts are forecast to push into the Tasman Sea around Thursday so Friday onwards has the potential for renewed short range south swell, however it’s too early for specifics. 

It's also worth pointing out that a couple of mid-latitude systems in the South Pacific are modeled to develop throughout the forecast period but they currently look to be too small, and track unfavourably to the east, to benefit our surf potential. I will keep a close eye on them next week though.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!