Plenty of fun E/NE swell, then a good long period S'ly swell

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 16th March)

Best Days: Most days this week: should have fun E/NE swell at open beaches with good conditions (couple of wind risks, see below). Sat: nice long period S'ly swell, easing Sun. 

Recap: A strong S’ly change pushed across Southern NSW early Saturday morning, building small residual E’ly swells to a large wind affected S’ly swell by the afternoon, with sets in the 6ft+ range at some exposed locations. Wave heights eased from 4-5ft on Sunday though with lingering S’ly winds. Today has seen the S’ly swell drop a lot more but a new E’ly swell is providing 3ft+ sets at open beaches with moderate to fresh winds from the south or east (depending on location), so conditions are patchy. 

This week (Mar 17 - 20)

We’ve got a broad area of activity within our east and north-east swell window at the moment, mainly in association with TC Gretel, currently passing quickly through the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman Sea, enroute to the South Pacific.

TC Gretel won’t directly generate any swell for us, but a strengthening ridge to its south covers a broad region across the the northern Tasman Sea - if somewhat disjointed in structure. As such, we’ll see erratic pulses from the E/NE from today through Friday.

Additionally, TC Gretel is enhancing a few other fetches in other swell windows.

A stalled front off the SW tip of New Zealand’s South Island will anchor a modest S’ly fetch in the south-eastern Tasman Sea, and this will supply small SE swell through Wednesday and Thursday. E/SE gales exiting western Cook Strait on Tuesday will generate a small swell from the same direction around Thursday. 

As for size, most days will probably hang around the 3ft mark at exposed beaches though there’s potential for a few brief pulses of bigger surf near 4ft+. This is most likely Tuesday (probably the afternoon) and also Wednesday, though as we’re not expecting a defined swell front, it’s hard to be confident in the arrival and duration. Surf size will trend down through Thursday and Friday though there’ll be plenty of fun waves for exposed beaches. 

Winds should be pretty good all week, mainly light and variable across most coasts. Likely risks are a lingering SE breeze on Tuesday (mainly north from Sydney through the Hunter), and a possible northerly breeze later Thursday and Friday. Otherwise, most coasts should see light morning winds and relatively weak afternoon sea breezes. 

This weekend (Mar 21 - 22)

A powerful front will pass well to the south of Tasmania later Wednesday and Thursday (see below). This system - despite not being perfectly aligned within our swell window - looks very good for a decent south swell arriving overnight Friday and peaking through Saturday (the Far South Coast may even pick up this new swell very late Friday).

However, an unrelated secondary front clipping the Tasmanian region on Friday may push into Southern NSW for Saturday morning, providing a brief period of unfavourable winds. This is a low chance right now but will need to be closely monitored in Wednesday's updates. Sunday currently looks favourable with light winds and sea breezes (for the most part, Saturday should be OK too).  

As for size, Saturday’s long period S’ly swell should build into the 3-4ft+ range at south facing beaches throughout the day, however reliable south swell magnets (likely the Hunter) and offshore bombies will enjoy the long periods (16-17 seconds) and should see occasional 5-6ft sets. 

Surf size will ease from this source through Sunday but a new mid-range S’ly swell form the secondary front (mentioned above) should keep south facing beaches the 3ft+ range. 

Of course, anywhere else not exposed to the south will be much smaller, and they’ll see some residual E’ly swell through the weekend too.

Next week (Mar 23 onwards)

More strong fronts are expected south of Tasmania this weekend suggesting plenty of south swell next week.

In addition, a steady trade flow through the South Pacific and Northern Tasman Sea should supply small but useful E/NE swell, and there’s a suggestion for an enhanced E’ly dip that may boost surf size later in the week with a little more size and period.

More on this in Wednesday’s update. 

Comments

Tim Bonython's picture
Tim Bonython's picture
Tim Bonython Monday, 16 Mar 2020 at 6:55pm

Ho hum...

billie's picture
billie's picture
billie Monday, 16 Mar 2020 at 7:58pm

Ho hum? Good fun! You're addicted to chasing those dirty purple blobs champ!

joesydney's picture
joesydney's picture
joesydney Tuesday, 17 Mar 2020 at 7:24pm

Was pumping at Maroubra today built from 2ft to a couple of 6ft sets by the evening

jere-my's picture
jere-my's picture
jere-my Tuesday, 17 Mar 2020 at 9:27pm

6ft actually? This am and early arvo was super fun And dredgy 3-4ft

joesydney's picture
joesydney's picture
joesydney Tuesday, 17 Mar 2020 at 10:04pm

Surfed from 12-2pm and by the end there were 4fters coming through. Went to check it again at 630pm and it definitely bigger.

Pops's picture
Pops's picture
Pops Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 9:44am

From the northern beaches report this morning:
"Try up the beaches as everywhere will be pumping."
A lot of spots probably are, but the spots I checked (and the spot I surfed) weren't as good as you'd expect. As backwashy as inside makaha, and there was either two swells in the water confusing things, or the main swell was calving/splitting for some reason. Every set was seeming to push a little surge lump in front of it. Super weird session, bit disappointing - shoulda gone for a more thorough scout

Ape Anonymous's picture
Ape Anonymous's picture
Ape Anonymous Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 11:37am

Pops, that's exactly where I would be heading today too.. thanks for the info. Had an epic solo session close-by there yesterday -only place I've ever seen throw left-hand slabs that run into a right hand-point break -hidden in plain sight ;-)

Pops's picture
Pops's picture
Pops Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 11:45am

Haha nah I wasn't surfing the NB's makaha - was just making a reference to the BS backwash you get at the end section of Oahu's one.
My usual haunt is a good bit further north than there. Sorry to mislead ya!
But I think I know the spot you're talking about. Had the odd epic day there.

Ape Anonymous's picture
Ape Anonymous's picture
Ape Anonymous Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 12:08pm

"further north" - crosswaves must have been cooking yesterday!?? That's where I was heading before I saw a unicorn shitting golden rainbows and had to go check it out in person ;-)

Pops's picture
Pops's picture
Pops Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 12:18pm

Hahaha! Gold!
I think the unicorn would be a bit more likely than cooking crosswaves... still the pass can turn on in the right conditions. Just gotta dodge those Carrol pricks on their SUPs.
You're in the ballpark at least.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 9:53am

Yeah swell kicked yesterday arvo and evening. North Steyne 4-5ft bombs. Yew!