Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 9th July)

Best Days: Tuesday, Wednesday morning, Thursday morning, Saturday, dawn Sunday

Recap

It's great to be back after my sojourn around the Basque Country, if you get a chance it's more than worth a trip.

Saturday was tiny, but a strong front pushing up into us yesterday brought with it a stormy increase in swell, though kind of in between sizes.

This morning conditions were still poor as the swell dropped back to 3-4ft.

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We're looking at smaller waves into tomorrow but cleaner conditions as winds swing NW and hold most of the day.

Smaller easing surf from 2-3ft is expected, while into Wednesday morning a new reinforcing SW groundswell should keep fun waves hitting Clifton.

This was generated over the weekend by a short-lived polar low south of WA, aiming a fetch of gale to severe-gale W/NW winds through our swell window.

Sets to 2ft+ are expected but winds look to be the issue with a surface trough due to drift in from the south. We should see a period of NW winds most of the morning, shifting SE before midday. So don't sleep in too long.

Thursday morning should see a return to offshore N/NW winds but small fading surf from 1-2ft.

Moving into later Friday and Saturday morning, we've got a great new long-period SW groundswell expected across the region, generated by an intense and slow moving polar low that will form south-southwest of WA tomorrow morning.

The low will produce a stalled fetch of gale to severe-gale W/NW winds before pushing slowly east along the polar shelf through Wednesday and then slowly weakening Thursday south-west of us.

Friday morning will start tiny, but a strong pulse in size is due late to an easy 3ft but with a gusty S'ly change, with clean rapidly easing 3-4ft sets Saturday morning under a N/NW tending N'ly breeze.

Sunday will be clean but smaller and fading from 1ft to maybe 2ft.

Longer term there's nothing significant on the cards until mid-next week when the Southern Ocean starts to fire up to our west. More on this Wednesday.