South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 7th Feb)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun E swell holds this weekend with light winds-generally E/SE-E in SEQLD, more E-E/NE in NENSW
• Upgraded outlook for next week as progression of lows to the SE slows, allowing for more E swell
• Likely an uptick later Mon into Tues
• Further increase likely from Wed into the end of the week
• Winds generally E-NE next week, although light through the morning
• S change due later Sat into Sun
• Potentially for more significant E swell increase next weekend, Sun more likely
• Potential for S-S/SE swell in the mix if surface low forms in Tasman 
• Dynamic outlook so stay tuned for updates 

Recap

Fun waves from the tropical trade fetch supplied 3ft surf yesterday morning with glassy-lumpy conditions under light morning land breezes (apart from a few random rain squalls between Byron-Ballina) before a’noon E'ly breezes while the swell kicked a notch into the a’noon with 3-4ft surf. Still nice conditions this morning under light morning land breezes and light a'noon SE-E winds. Size is down a notch but still offering up the odd 3ft set.

Another morning of clean, fun E swell

This weekend (Feb 8-9)

No great change to the weekend outlook. Light winds both days should see widespread land breezes before winds tend SE-E/SE Sat, more E-NE on Sun. As per usual, winds will tend more NE into the MNC, and more E’ly up in SEQLD.

Surf-wise there’s no great change expected- a slight upgrade if anything as the evolution of the trade fetch and low moving SE from New Caledonia has slowed.

That should hold 2-3ft surf through Sat with an occ. bigger set still a possibility.

Almost identical surf expected Sun.

Again, these are pulsey E’ly tradeswells with the occ. slow, patchy period usually tidally mediated so work around tides for best results.

Next week (Feb10 onwards)

New high pressure moves SE of Tasmania to start next week and compared to Wed’s notes it’s looking stronger and slower moving, which is good news for surf potential, especially medium term as it anchors low pressure drifting down from the tropics into the wide open South Pacific slot.

We should see E’ly winds on Mon, generally light with a troughy area on the coast giving possibilities for variable breezes in the morning. Depending on how the trough behaves we should at least see periods of lighter winds Mon into Tues.

Surfwise E’ly swells from trade-winds off the top of the high will hold small surf in the 2-3ft range Mon, up a notch through Tues as the general wind field in the Southern Coral re-strengthens and more mid period swells make landfall from the stalled progression of lows in the South Pacific. 

That signal of E’ly swell should strengthen further into mid week as swells from a stalled low in the South Pac further increase energy. Compared to Mondays notes where this low was expected to slide off quickly to the SE, it nows moves slowly and stalls while a fresh low reinvigorates the E’ly fetch in the Coral Sea SE of New Caledonia. That will see size up into the provisional 4ft range with light/mod E-NE winds. 

Expect that swell to hang in there through Thurs and possibly Fri at similar levels. We may even see further reinforcement Fri - Sat/Sun is more likely- from another slow moving low now budding off the monsoon trough and becoming slow moving as it tracks from New Caledonia towards the North Island, possibly intensifying as it does so (see below).

Under current modelling that would see even better quality E quadrant swell filling in through next weekend, possibly up in the the 5-6ft range on the sets. Still a ways off so confidence is reduced but model agreement is looking good. 

Models are also suggesting a trough in advance of a front bringing a sharp S’ly change over the weekend with an intensification of the trough and strong S’ly fetch bringing a spike in S swell through the weekend and also a well-timed S’ly change for the Points as E swell builds Sun. There’s potential for that trough to form a surface low in the Tasman and generate some quality S tending S/SE swell  early week 17/2. 

Too early to have any confidence in specifics but the general outlook looks dynamic.

Make sure you check back Mon for latest updates and until then, have a great weekend!