South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jan 15th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Plenty of E/SE swell filling in Tues with SE-E/SE winds favouring the Points
• Bit of S swell in the mix Tues
• Easing E swell Wed with easing winds from the E
• Small pulsey E swells favouring beachies Thurs/Fri with light winds and a’noon seabreezes
• Small S swell and pulsey E swell combo this weekend with light winds, bigger on Sun
• Potential tropical cyclone in Coral Sea next week, uncertain surf potential at this early stage but big swells possible- check back Wed for revisions

Recap

Pumping surf, or close to it Sat with solid 3-5ft surf widespread across the region with some bigger sets still on offer across the Southern Gold Coast. Conditions favoured the Points with SE winds with a few raggedy options at semi-sheltered Points and beachies (breakwalls). Sunday saw easing surf in the 3ft range (a few 4ft sets) with cleaner conditions early under SW-S/SW winds before they swung around S-SE and freshened. Today has seen small but clean surf in the 2ft range with rain squalls and light winds before SE winds kicked up in the a'noon as a new SE surge worked it's way northwards. 

Plenty of surf over the weekend and some very slick peaks leftover this morning

This week (Jan 15-19)

Very active pattern to start the week with a large high (1029hPa) moving E of Tasmania with a SE surge enhanced by a trough along the leading edge of the high, and active Monsoon Trough extending in to the Coral Sea and an approaching complex low well to the SW of Tasmania. Add in a long tradewind fetch in the South Pacific. All these features are potential sources of surf in the short to medium term. 

In the short run the strong SE surge and associated windfield in the Tasman will see plenty of E/SE swell across the region,  with surf building to 3-5ft  based on what we saw in Southern NSW today. Mod/fresh E/SE to E’ly winds will confine surfing to protected Points and even they may get a little scrappy in the a’noon.

An o/night easing trend sees smaller sized surf to 4ft through Wed morning, and the trend will be down through the day as the fetch dissipates quickly. Lighter winds will see morning land breezes across most of the region (lingering E’lies across the Sunshine Coast) before light/mod E-E/NE winds through the day. Those onshores should be light enough to surf through if you’re not too fussy.

Light winds tending N’ly for the rest of the working week across SEQLD, with a trough bringing a S’ly change to Coffs on Fri before stalling between Yamba and Ballina. These conditions and a pulsey long range trade swell mixed with some smaller E swell look to provide fun sized 2-3ft surf through Thurs and Fri. A few bigger sets should be on offer at some of the better exposed beaches.

Tricky winds Fri as the trough lingers and the complex low approaches or moves under Tasmania, driving W’ly winds through Bass Strait and possibly bringing a synoptic W/SW flow up as far as Sydney. Those winds are likely to tilt SE in the a’noon but we’ll finesse that on Wed. Small E swell to 1-2ft is expected for the day. We may see a late kick in new S swell from gales out of Bass Strait. Models are still divergent on this low and it’s evolution so check back Wed for an update.

This weekend (Jan 20-21)

A complex low approaches or moves under Tasmania, driving W’ly winds through Bass Strait and a S/SW fetch adjacent to SE Tas on Fri. This may send a small S swell showing in NENSW later Sat into Sun in the 2-3ft range. 

Most of the swell over the weekend through will be continuing E swell from the South Pacific trade flow with a small embedded low retrograding along the northern edge of it, with the whole system moving below the North Island over the weekend.

We should see continuing light winds tending to weak NE seabreezes in the a’noon both days. Pulsey E swell Sat in the 2-3ft range looks to boost a notch into Sun as slightly longer period swell fills in from the retrograding low. Expect a few 3-4ft sets through Sun. All in all, looks like a fun weekend of waves.

Next week (Jan 22 onwards)

Fun sized pulsey E/NE swell and light winds looks to continue into next week, at least through Mon as swell from the broad fetch in the South Pacific slot continues.

From the weekend we’ll be watching for the formation of a tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea at the terminus of the Monsoon Trough. Both major models are suggesting by mid next week a southwards moving cyclone in the Coral Sea. That suggests high degree of confidence in a cyclone swell for the QLD coast although it’s too far away to have any confidence in specifics in size or timing. Models are suggesting an early NE swell from the system Tues. We’ll see how that looks Wed.

Certainly a large cyclone swell is a possibility later next week depending on how the system evolves. Early days though. Let's take a deeper dive Wed as we get closer to the potential event.

Check back Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.