South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Mon Dec 11)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing trade swell with light morning winds Tues
• N'lies to affect surface conditions from Wed thru' Sat
• Long period S'ly swell for Wed, mainly Northern NSW
• Nothing of major interest for the long term at this stage

Recap

Cyclone swell from STC Jasper came in smaller and later than expected. SE Qld was the biggest beneficiary, increasing from 2-3ft early Saturday to 3-4ft throughout Sunday, and some locations are pushing a solid 4ft today, however wave heights have been smaller south from the Tweed, and very small on the MNC. Overall, there really hasn't been much in the way of quality surf with winds holding from the NE thru' E'ly quadrant for the most part.

This week (Dec 12 - 15)

We're now at the peak of the swell cycle from STC Jasper so it's a slow dowards trend for the rest of the week.

Additionally, we've got a run of northerly winds due from Wednesday onwards, so Tuesday really is your best day to capitalise on for surf. 

Light variable winds early Tuesday will precede moderate sea breezes into the afternoon, so expect easing size from 3-4ft to 2-3ft across SE Qld, gradually grading smaller south of the border, with only small surf once again throughout the Mid North Coast. Swell direction should be generally E/NE, essentially trade swell sourced from the supporting ridge below TC Jasper.

Early Wednesday should see a brief morning of light winds north from about Yamba, ahead of developing N/NE winds that will then persist through Thursday and Friday, creating bumpy conditions at most spots. Easing E/NE swells will be taken over - south of the border at least, anyway - by a new long period south swell, generated by a strong if slightly off-axis frontal system currently projecting from the far eastern Indian Ocean into the lower Tasman Sea (see below).

The arrival of this swell may be slightly delayed across the Far North, but should peak through the middle of the day across the MNC (and then late arvo in the Far North), with south facing beaches expected to peak somewhere in the 3-5ft range. However, it is a flukey swell and won't get in everywhere - most beaches south of the border will struggle to pick up 2-3ft sets and southern ends will be very small (they, along with the regional points, will be wind affected anyway). 

SE Qld won't enjoy this swell direction, so away from a handful of south swell magnets and exposed northern ends - which may pick up stray 2ft+ sets - we'll be relying on background trade swell energy. Local winds won't be terribly flash, anyway.

The rest of the week will see easing S'ly swell (Thurs) and then a small mix of trade swells to pad out the end of the week - albeit bumpy under moderate ot frdsh northerly winds. 

So, make the most of Tuesday (north from Yamba), or Wednesday at northern corners south of the border - or hold your mid-week fire until the forecast improves. 

This weekend (Dec 16 - 17)

Not a great weekend of waves ahead. 

Lingering troughiness adjacent the coastal margin (mainly MNC and Southern NSW) later this week isn't expected to coalesce into any kind of decent swell generating system. Unfortunately, this means we're expecting generally small swells from distant and/or weak sources both days. 

A shallow southerly change is expected to move across the Northern NSW coast overnight Saturday, pushing north into SE Qld into Sunday. Ahead of it we'll see freshening N'ly winds, and small, low quality surf conditions. 

I'll tale a closer look on Wednesday, but for now it's not shaping up very well this weekend.

Next week (Dec 18 onwards)

Persistant troughiness will maintain small weak local swell sources early next week but there's presently no indication for any major size. 

There's also some mild promise for trade sources to firm up later in the outlook period, but this won't provide much relief in the short term. Local N'ly winds look to be an issue for much of next week at this stage too (mainly SE Qld, less-so on the MNC).

That being said, there is some activity in the Tasman Sea on rthe cards for the middle of next week that could produce a more robust easterly swell for Northern NSW (around the 21st), but it's too far out to have any confidence. I'll have more on that in Wednesday's update.