South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 9th Aug)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell in the mix easing Wed
• Small leftovers from the S/SE and E/NE Thurs with NW winds tending N’ly and freshening
• Minor S swells late Fri/Sat with light winds
• Small mix of S swells early next week with shifty, tricky winds
• Looking good for quality S/SE swell late Wed or Thurs, easing Fri with uncertain wind outlook

Recap

Tradewind swell has slowly eased since the last notes with yesterday seeing inconsistent 2-3ft surf under S’ly winds and today smaller 2ft with easing S’lies. Small amounts of S-S/SE swell have padded out wave heights in NENSW and added some 3ft sets to S exposed breaks.

Tiny, glittering peelers racing down a super shallow Superbank

This week (Aug 9-11)

High pressure (1031hPa) is slowly but surely moving into the Tasman in a NE direction, developing a N’ly flow extending into the sub-tropics through tomorrow. The remnants of a low/front are lingering near the South Island and holding some small, easing S/SE swell. The N’ly flow will be punctuated tomorrow Friday by a decaying front and trough which brings NW’ly winds to the region with a S’ly change advancing up the coast and a small amount of S swell for the weekend. A stronger frontal system now looks likely to be a bit delayed but stall nicely in the Eastern Tasman early next week and supply some useful S/SE swell.

In the short run we’ll see the small mixed bag of S/SE swell and E/NE tradewind swell dwindling to a few 2ft sets tomorrow, clean early on the beachies under W-NW winds that will tend mod/fresh N’ly through the day.

NW winds then freshen o/night as the trough  pushes NE into the Tasman and a trough advances up the coast. Looks like a S’ly change will be across the MNC coast mid morning, early a’noon on the North Coast and possibly stalling around the QLD border on dark. Not much surf expected though, just a small blend of leftover E swell and minor S swell to 1-2ft at swell magnets. A small flush of S swell is likely to lift wave heights across the MNC to 2-3ft at S facing beaches, possibly showing from Yamba-Byron before dark.

This weekend (Aug 12-13)

Friday’s modest S swell lift will provide some small surf through Sat, favouring NENSW S facing beaches. A few 2ft+ sets at S facing beaches south of the border are on offer with some babyfood in SEQLD to 1-2ft at the best swell magnets. Winds look light/variable as the trough stalls out across SEQLD so a morning land breeze is highly likely with a’noon seabreezes.

Another trough/front Sunday will push SW-S winds up the Mid North Coast, tending S-SE during the day. SEQLD should see a lighter NW flow with a late SE breeze as the trough arrives. Not much surf to get up for though- just a small blend of S swells to 1-2ft tops in NENSW, tiny in SEQLD. 

Next week (Aug 14 onwards)

Improved outlook for next week as the weekends front stalls around a trough line in the central/eastern lower Tasman and even possibly retrogrades NW (see below). Under current modelling that suggests a nice pulse of S/SE swell, either later Wed or Thurs.

We’ll see small S swell Mon with a lingering S’ly flow shifting NE’ly by the a’noon as a trough approaches from the West. 

Winds then look really tricky Tues as a trough potentially moves offshore with winds NW north of the trough tending more W’ly later in the day. We’ll finesse winds on Fri. More small S swell to 1-2ft is expected. Again, timing will need to be revised on Fri. 

If winds behave we should see some really fun waves mid next week. We may see S/SE swell build Wed a’noon into the 3-4ft range, holding in the 4ft range Thurs before easing through Fri.

Longer term and the troughy pattern may be resolved later next week by an approaching low/front which looks to bring typically strong W’ly winds for August.

Check back Fri for the latest.