South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 3rd March)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Fun boost in tradewind swell Fri with winds tending S-SSE
• Fun mix of E and SE swell this weekend with SE winds Sat, light winds Sun
• Traces of long period S swell Fri and Sun/Mon- only showing in NENSW
• TC Judy and TC Kevin now likely to drift quickly SE through swell window and not produce any major size- few sets expected Sun-Tues
• N’lies Mon-Wed next week with small surf
• Small S swell on the radar mid/late next week, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Small surf yesterday with a mix of E swell to 1-2ft which perked up a notch in the a’noon to 2ft under a light SE-ESE flow. Today has seen light morning variable/offshore winds with a notch E swell producing sets to 3ft before SE winds kicked in and confined surfing to protected Points.

Bit of extra size to the Peelers this mornign, clean under SE winds

This weekend (Mar 4-5)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. A weak ridge from a high (1023hPa) tracking towards Tasmania supplies SE fresh breezes tomorrow, likely SW inshore early before freshening through the day. Todays increase in E swell holds into tomorrow morning with 2-3ft surf across the region, augmented by SE swell from the Northern Tasman. We may see a small amount of longer period E’ly energy as TC Judy briefly slows in the swell window. Nothing major, just a few 3ft sets. 

TC Kevin is now following the same path as TC Judy with just traces of E/NE-E energy added into the mix Sun/Mon.

Light SW winds are on the menu for Sun morning which will be favourable for most beaches for the early. SE swell peaks with 3ft surf, along with 3ft sets from the E and some long period S swell from the fronts in the Southern Ocean. High pressure moves quickly into the Tasman with the ridge slackening and winds tending light E-NE through the a’noon. If you sniff around Sunday there’ll be some bigger waves at swell magnets, finding a bank will be a bigger challenge.

TC's Judy and Kevin racing across the swell window with just a few stray sets for us

Next week (Mar6 onwards)

N’ly winds freshen through Mon as a complex low approaches from the W and tightens pressure gradients across the region. Wind will be lighter in SEQLD, stronger with increasing S’ly latitude (expect 20kts+ on the Mid North Coast). Small mix of swells is expected with easing S swell supplying a few sets early to S facing beaches in the 2-3ft range before easing off. Small E/NE swell generated as both TC Judy and TC Kevin race through the swell window add a bit of scattered E-E/NE energy to the East Coast. Nothing major, just a few 3ft sets. Through the a’noon expect NE windswell to start to build up into the 2-3ft range across the Mid North Coast.

A trough in advance of a front linked to the complex low brings a more NW’ly flow through Tues morning with  NE windswell in the 2-3ft range across the Mid North Coast up to Yamba, smaller further north where winds will be more N’ly. Sets in the 2-3ft from the E continue to supply surfable conditions to backbeaches.

By Mid week we’ll see a synoptic W’ly flow being driven across temperate NSW by the complex low and front which is expected to be slow moving in Tasmanian longitudes.  Winds will tend more variable NW across the sub-tropics as a trough lingers about the area but we’ll revise that on Mon. NE windswell looks to linger into Wed in the 2ft range.

Complex low brings some small S swell pulses later next week

A Bass Strait fetch of gales protruding into the Tasman Tues should see a kick in new directional S swell either later Wed or Thurs AM, likely into the 2-3ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, possibly reaching 2ft at S facing beaches on the Gold Coast.

More reliable S swell fills in Thurs as SW/SSW winds push NE into the Tasman. We’ll finesse size and timing on Mon but at this early stage pencil in size of 2-3ft at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD at S facing beaches with light winds as a weak, troughy pattern slips into the Tasman.

Smaller pulses then looks to supply small S swell into the end of next week and the weekend. Nothing too major as winds are quite zonal in the fetch so not ideally aimed for swell production into our side of the Tasman Sea.

Further ahead and models are suggesting an intensification of a last fetch of the frontal progression next weekend, suggesting a stronger pulse of SSE swell early week of 13/3. Tropics remain active so we’ll keep tabs on that as well and report back Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!