TC expected to drift into the Coral Sea with another extended round of E'ly swell ahead

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 4th Apr)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

  • Surf easing quickly Mon with a couple of small days Mon/Tues with light winds
  • Tropical cyclone expected to form late Mon/Tues- with E/NE-NE cyclone swell late Wed, more likely early Thurs
  • Plenty of E'ly swell building in from later Wed, into Thurs, and over Fri-Mon at significant levels, with S to SE winds
  • La Nina pattern continues through medium term, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Southern NSW was massive over the weekend, especially Saturday but our region saw a much reduced load of S swell, apart from one strong pulse Sat a’noon. Sat started small- in the 3-5ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD. A strong pulse after lunch in NENSW saw a wide spread of 6-8ft surf, with S facing beaches in the 10ft range. SEQLD saw much smaller 3ft surf- this pulse barely showed north of the border. Winds were foul NE, in excess of 20 knots so surfable locations were exceedingly rare. Surf dropped back quickly Sun, around 3-4ft in NENSW and 2-3ft in SEQLD and today we’re back down to very small surf in the 1-2ft range across the region with light winds.

Best of the S swell Sat before the Nor-easter hacked it to bits

This week (Apr 4-8)

A weak troughy pattern lies over most of the East Coast at the moment, with the remnants of the deep Tasman low meandering off the Gippsland Coast. This weak pattern persists until Wed, when a formidable blocking pattern consisting of a large peanut-shaped high pressure system sets up a strong ridge along the entire East Coast. That will direct a deep E’ly flow onto the coast throughout the f/cast region. A depression just to the North-West of New Caledonia now has a high chance of forming a tropical cyclone (Fili) with this system expected to supply some pulses of swell from the NE to E quadrant as it tracks into the Coral Sea. A large cradling fetch of E to SE winds is also aimed at sub-tropical areas and should produce plenty of swell for the region this week. In short we are looking at another extended run of E’ly swell, favouring the Points.

In the short run and tomorrow will be the last day of light winds and nice conditions so make the most of it. Not much surf to speak of, just a tiny signal, in the 1ft range early.  Offshore winds early, will clock around E/SE through the a’noon. These winds will be fresher across SEQLD as the ridge starts to build.

SE winds start to ramp up Wed, setting the tone for the rest of the week. Expect lighter winds early, with classic Summer sou-easters in the 15-20knot range through most of the day from mid/late morning. We’ll see short range swell from that direction start to slowly build through the day, although it will be short period and low quality, suitable only for the outer Points and a few semi-protected bechbreaks.

Models do show a small signal of NE swell coming from the cyclone but I’m extremely dubious on this source. These NE swells tend to be inhibited by island shadowing off New Caledonia which swell models don’t account for.

Keep an eye on some stray 2-3ft sets out of the NE later in the day, most likely on the Sunshine Coast.

Thursday is the most likely day for a pulse of NE swell from the cyclone as it tracks SW past the tip of Grand Terre. There’s better odds for some 3ft+ sets, 3-4ft on the Sunshine Coast through Thurs morning. Light S’ly winds early will open up semi-protected beachbreaks before winds swing SE through the day. Shorter period E swell from the cradling fetch is expected to build into the 3ft range through the day. 

By Friday we’ll still be in the same pattern with SE winds, tending more E to E/SE further south from Yamba. E’ly swell is expected to ramp up quite significantly during the day. Expect surf to build from the 3ft+  range up into the 4-5ft range during the day, courtesy of the large fetch of cradling E to E/SE winds which the cyclone will be pushing against. Another stacked day of surf on the Points is on the cards for Friday. There will be some S’ly swell trains in the mix but given the prevailing E’ly swell and SE winds it’s unlikely they’ll be able to be utilised and will be more Background energy to the E swell.

This weekend (Apr 9-10)

The high will be tracking E across the Tasman Sea later this week and into the weekend but the synoptic wind remains entrenched through Saturday, with SE winds.  There’ll be a solid whack of E swell in the water Sat, at least 4-6ft. We will need to finesse this depending on the movement of the potential cyclone, but the anchoring fetch is strong and persistent so we can bank on that providing solid surf. Another day of waves on the Points with a chance of some beachies coming online early in the morning with lighter SW to S winds early.

Sunday repeats the dose. Wave heights may come down a notch from peaks reached on Sat, back into the 3-5ft range but there’ll be heaps of size for the Points. Winds will remain from the S. There is a troughy area of low pressure off the SEQLD/NENSW Coast which may do some funky things to local winds- but they should be good things like make the wind drop out. We’ll update that on Wed. All in all, there’ll be a stack of good surf Sun on the Points.

Next week (Apr11 onwards)

Plenty of action from the E to start of next week. Models show the cyclone or ex cyclone slow moving to the SE over the weekend before a turn to the S, with a large fetch of E to ESE’ly winds anchoring the system. That maintains plenty of E swell for the entire East Coast into next week. 

Winds will be the main factor but at this stage Mon looks great with a light SW to SE flow. Coupled with 4-6ft of E swell there should be heaps of good options.

A small trough complicates things Tues but winds should be light, possibly tending S’ly during the day. E swell continues in the 3-5ft range, although this size will likely be finessed as we get closer to the date depending on the track of the cyclone. 

Plenty of E swell is expected to hang on into Wed, although I think wave models might be overcooking it a notch or two, we should still see at least 3-4ft of surf through the day. Winds are likely  to go light and variable  as a trough deepens off the NSW Coast, likely the Mid North Coast.

Longer term and with high pressure continuing to move at Summer latitudes, and the trough off the coast, we may well see a rinse and repeat cycle of E to E/SE swell and a few days of onshore winds next week. The long lead time suggests substantial revision, but the La Niña style pattern seems to show no signs of letting up.

Check back Wed for the next update.

Comments

Lougher's picture
Lougher's picture
Lougher Monday, 4 Apr 2022 at 4:54pm

Wow

Tick's picture
Tick's picture
Tick Monday, 4 Apr 2022 at 5:20pm

That forecast typically fills all the carparks down cooly/kirra. Now throw in holiday crowds, ocean swim series particpants and 7000 odd Aussie Lifesaving title competitors. Hmmm.

simsurf's picture
simsurf's picture
simsurf Monday, 4 Apr 2022 at 6:22pm

Early bird catches the worm or get the car park

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Monday, 4 Apr 2022 at 6:42pm

For sure mate - don't bother haha

NickT's picture
NickT's picture
NickT Monday, 4 Apr 2022 at 8:17pm

The positive outcome is that a large majority of surfers are all at one break, opening up less crowded options elsewhere

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Monday, 4 Apr 2022 at 9:00pm

Ocean swim should be interesting with 6 foot of swell out there……..read: it won’t happen

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Monday, 4 Apr 2022 at 6:42pm

Wanna speculate on Easter Steve?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Monday, 4 Apr 2022 at 6:55pm

Give me one more day on that Surfalot.

JTWC has put out a tropical cyclone formation alert for Invest 99P which is APPROXIMATELY
276 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU.

They seem pretty confident it will undergo cyclogenesis overnight.

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Tuesday, 5 Apr 2022 at 5:50pm

Awesome - cheers Steve.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Monday, 4 Apr 2022 at 7:06pm

So I always wonder what you call a swell-producing set up like this.
Is it a trade wind swell, or maybe a supercharged trade wind swell because of the extra oomph from the cyclone.
A good wind swell or heading into proper groundswell territory?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Monday, 4 Apr 2022 at 7:30pm

trade-swell with benefits.

damo-b's picture
damo-b's picture
damo-b Monday, 4 Apr 2022 at 7:15pm

Us Cane Toads are praying for her to park-up around 162 deg East, 25 deg South, at 980 hPa (ish) and crank away for a week. Some corduroy would be a sight for these sore eyes. And bring on the jelly legs!

Lottolonglong's picture
Lottolonglong's picture
Lottolonglong Monday, 4 Apr 2022 at 7:45pm

With the average bells forecast,it would be interesting to know how many pros are already in Oz with this forecast in mind

nicko74's picture
nicko74's picture
nicko74 Monday, 4 Apr 2022 at 10:02pm

This is really hard to read!!

Forecasts like this make me miss the east a lot!! 17 years tomorrow : (

juegasiempre's picture
juegasiempre's picture
juegasiempre Tuesday, 5 Apr 2022 at 6:34am

Saw a shark yesterday, which I never thought I would. Breached 3m away from me and another guy, did like a quick 180ish turn with splashing and then disappeared, looked to be chasing a fish. 1.5m roughly and looking at photos I'd say a bull shark or juvenile white based on the fin. Most people paddled in and a lady saw it from the beach as well.

Was at a crescent head back beach, MNC, water quality and visibility was 0/10 and there were heaps of dolphins as well.

I suprisingly want scared because it happened so quick, was smallish and was obviously just getting a feed. I still paddled in though, as did most everyone, the waves were dying and I'd had my fill of waves.

Hopefully the last time!

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Tuesday, 5 Apr 2022 at 11:18am

Early Feb a 5mt GWS swam thru the Crescent line up.

Mcface's picture
Mcface's picture
Mcface Tuesday, 5 Apr 2022 at 12:25pm

I had just driven up from Sydney when that happened. Pulled into town, waxed up the bonz and was walking down to the jump off when everyone started getting out of the water. I had a shit week and was jonesing for any kind of surf so wasn't too stoked but at least no one hurt.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Tuesday, 5 Apr 2022 at 12:36pm

And around same time Mr Brokensha surfed an Outer bank in that area until Dusk.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 5 Apr 2022 at 2:04pm

Yep, felt sketch!

richard187's picture
richard187's picture
richard187 Tuesday, 5 Apr 2022 at 2:47pm

I predict multiple shark sightings, at Noosa this weekend from jetskis

back beach's picture
back beach's picture
back beach Tuesday, 5 Apr 2022 at 10:36am

Hey juegas same same leaping twirling Noah probs around 10/20m from a mate and I here near the Clarence last week . On the quick paddle in we gave it a bronze medal but upgrade to silver on the beach cos all our bits were still intact. Thinking it was a bull under 2m

Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic Tuesday, 5 Apr 2022 at 11:22am

such a fantastic time of year. tuesday/wed last week gave me some of the roundest barrels I have had all year.... and not just at the points this time!! here's to more this weekend and next week!!

theinsider's picture
theinsider's picture
theinsider Tuesday, 5 Apr 2022 at 1:41pm

Hey Sheep the ECMWF model is showing a strong north pulse in the swell for Thurs / Fri - could be good for certain point breaks north of Bribie. What’s your update on that Nth East swell? Are you back in the water yet?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Tuesday, 5 Apr 2022 at 1:51pm

I'm feeling very bullish on this NE pulse, according to EC.

Especially up there.

Still a bit of model divergence, GFS has much less favourable track.

Almost back in the water, getting there.

theinsider's picture
theinsider's picture
theinsider Tuesday, 5 Apr 2022 at 2:04pm

When a Sheep gets Bullish, one is wise to listen, Old Jungle Saying.
Hope to see you out there soon mate ✌️

flow's picture
flow's picture
flow Tuesday, 5 Apr 2022 at 2:01pm

You think you'll be good for a surf FR?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Tuesday, 5 Apr 2022 at 2:29pm

No, not this swell Flow.

Still looking at baby steps in baby food.

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Tuesday, 5 Apr 2022 at 2:07pm

I’m feeling bullish(after googling it’s meaning) after you mentioned you’re feeling bullish FR. I don’t know why I’ve never heard that. Seems along similar lines about gates and china shops

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango Tuesday, 5 Apr 2022 at 2:27pm

If you lot get waves half as good as last Tuesday when I was up in Qld, then you'll be having a veritable picnic. You lucky, lucky bastards - it's gone the full gronk again in Vic.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Tuesday, 5 Apr 2022 at 2:52pm

Was named a TC by JTWC this morning, now officially named by Fiji as TC Fili.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Tuesday, 5 Apr 2022 at 3:00pm

Good luck, everybody. Hope it turns into a feast.

Sorry to hear that you're quite there, Steve.

Silly Billy's picture
Silly Billy's picture
Silly Billy Tuesday, 5 Apr 2022 at 3:19pm

Also from earlier this morning --- "It no longer looks as though Fili will reach typhoon strength. The peak intensity forecast has been reduced to 110 km/h (60 knots) due to the wind shear associated with the subtropical westerlies.

The peak intensity will come during the next 24 hours as Fili, now named Fili by the Fiji meteorology agency, makes the turn to the south-southeast and gets even better outflow conditions even though it will still have to overcome significant windshear."

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Tuesday, 5 Apr 2022 at 4:58pm

What a fine looking system to produce 5 days + of great point break waves.

Best one of the season?

boogiefever's picture
boogiefever's picture
boogiefever Tuesday, 5 Apr 2022 at 5:11pm

Noosa..... Noosa..noosa... noosa noosa... noosa.
Get on it blow ins....... Five points to choose from!!!! Pretty much a point per person!!!! School holidays means everyone from noosa has left on their superyacht for Monaco or bermuda or some other taxfree haven. It'll be empty....yewwww!!!!

damo-b's picture
damo-b's picture
damo-b Tuesday, 5 Apr 2022 at 5:34pm

If only people would have a bit of respect for others, engage in a bit of surf etiquette, go to the end of the line-up, wait your turn, then there'd be enough Noosa to go around regardless of how crowded it becomes. Ha ha ha hhaa hahha haha haha hah ha ha ha ha ha ha hha hahaaa hhhaaah ha aha ahha haha hah ha ha hah ah ha ha...

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Tuesday, 5 Apr 2022 at 5:50pm

Imagine all the wasted waves with kookcity getting the sets. Leave it as it is

dazzler's picture
dazzler's picture
dazzler Wednesday, 6 Apr 2022 at 10:21am

Solar powered floodlights from Granite to groyne for the holiday period.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Wednesday, 6 Apr 2022 at 2:05pm

Looks like that fetch might have just produced some swell before New Cal blocked it. This is the altimeter (sea height) readings.

https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/rscat_images/sgwh/sgwh_wh_cur/zooms/...

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 6 Apr 2022 at 2:17pm

yep, already showing on Wide Bay/Burnett coast.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Wednesday, 6 Apr 2022 at 2:50pm

And Noosa

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 6 Apr 2022 at 3:21pm

Goldy now

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 6 Apr 2022 at 3:24pm

Thats good news. Thought it might not show there until after dark.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 6 Apr 2022 at 4:31pm

Actually I just surfed. Maybe very early signs but it was pretty weak

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Wednesday, 6 Apr 2022 at 3:41pm

Steve when do you think this NE pulse will fade seeing that it has arrived already? Cheers

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 6 Apr 2022 at 3:49pm

It should hold in through tomorrow, with overlapping shorter range E/SE swell building in over the top of it.

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Wednesday, 6 Apr 2022 at 4:51pm

Thanks mate

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Wednesday, 6 Apr 2022 at 5:26pm

A few after work waves on Capricorn coast atm ...get up for the early tmoro Chaps..