South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 4th Apr)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Surf easing quickly Mon with a couple of small days Mon/Tues with light winds
• Tropical cyclone expected to form late Mon/Tues- with E/NE-NE cyclone swell late Wed, more likely early Thurs
• Plenty of E'ly swell building in from later Wed, into Thurs, and over Fri-Mon at significant levels, with S to SE winds
• La Nina pattern continues through medium term, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Southern NSW was massive over the weekend, especially Saturday but our region saw a much reduced load of S swell, apart from one strong pulse Sat a’noon. Sat started small- in the 3-5ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD. A strong pulse after lunch in NENSW saw a wide spread of 6-8ft surf, with S facing beaches in the 10ft range. SEQLD saw much smaller 3ft surf- this pulse barely showed north of the border. Winds were foul NE, in excess of 20 knots so surfable locations were exceedingly rare. Surf dropped back quickly Sun, around 3-4ft in NENSW and 2-3ft in SEQLD and today we’re back down to very small surf in the 1-2ft range across the region with light winds.

Best of the S swell Sat before the Nor-easter hacked it to bits

This week (Apr 4-8)

A weak troughy pattern lies over most of the East Coast at the moment, with the remnants of the deep Tasman low meandering off the Gippsland Coast. This weak pattern persists until Wed, when a formidable blocking pattern consisting of a large peanut-shaped high pressure system sets up a strong ridge along the entire East Coast. That will direct a deep E’ly flow onto the coast throughout the f/cast region. A depression just to the North-West of New Caledonia now has a high chance of forming a tropical cyclone (Fili) with this system expected to supply some pulses of swell from the NE to E quadrant as it tracks into the Coral Sea. A large cradling fetch of E to SE winds is also aimed at sub-tropical areas and should produce plenty of swell for the region this week. In short we are looking at another extended run of E’ly swell, favouring the Points.

In the short run and tomorrow will be the last day of light winds and nice conditions so make the most of it. Not much surf to speak of, just a tiny signal, in the 1ft range early.  Offshore winds early, will clock around E/SE through the a’noon. These winds will be fresher across SEQLD as the ridge starts to build.

SE winds start to ramp up Wed, setting the tone for the rest of the week. Expect lighter winds early, with classic Summer sou-easters in the 15-20knot range through most of the day from mid/late morning. We’ll see short range swell from that direction start to slowly build through the day, although it will be short period and low quality, suitable only for the outer Points and a few semi-protected bechbreaks.

Models do show a small signal of NE swell coming from the cyclone but I’m extremely dubious on this source. These NE swells tend to be inhibited by island shadowing off New Caledonia which swell models don’t account for.

Keep an eye on some stray 2-3ft sets out of the NE later in the day, most likely on the Sunshine Coast.

Thursday is the most likely day for a pulse of NE swell from the cyclone as it tracks SW past the tip of Grand Terre. There’s better odds for some 3ft+ sets, 3-4ft on the Sunshine Coast through Thurs morning. Light S’ly winds early will open up semi-protected beachbreaks before winds swing SE through the day. Shorter period E swell from the cradling fetch is expected to build into the 3ft range through the day. 

By Friday we’ll still be in the same pattern with SE winds, tending more E to E/SE further south from Yamba. E’ly swell is expected to ramp up quite significantly during the day. Expect surf to build from the 3ft+  range up into the 4-5ft range during the day, courtesy of the large fetch of cradling E to E/SE winds which the cyclone will be pushing against. Another stacked day of surf on the Points is on the cards for Friday. There will be some S’ly swell trains in the mix but given the prevailing E’ly swell and SE winds it’s unlikely they’ll be able to be utilised and will be more Background energy to the E swell.

This weekend (Apr 9-10)

The high will be tracking E across the Tasman Sea later this week and into the weekend but the synoptic wind remains entrenched through Saturday, with SE winds.  There’ll be a solid whack of E swell in the water Sat, at least 4-6ft. We will need to finesse this depending on the movement of the potential cyclone, but the anchoring fetch is strong and persistent so we can bank on that providing solid surf. Another day of waves on the Points with a chance of some beachies coming online early in the morning with lighter SW to S winds early.

Sunday repeats the dose. Wave heights may come down a notch from peaks reached on Sat, back into the 3-5ft range but there’ll be heaps of size for the Points. Winds will remain from the S. There is a troughy area of low pressure off the SEQLD/NENSW Coast which may do some funky things to local winds- but they should be good things like make the wind drop out. We’ll update that on Wed. All in all, there’ll be a stack of good surf Sun on the Points.

Next week (Apr11 onwards)

Plenty of action from the E to start of next week. Models show the cyclone or ex cyclone slow moving to the SE over the weekend before a turn to the S, with a large fetch of E to ESE’ly winds anchoring the system. That maintains plenty of E swell for the entire East Coast into next week. 

Winds will be the main factor but at this stage Mon looks great with a light SW to SE flow. Coupled with 4-6ft of E swell there should be heaps of good options.

A small trough complicates things Tues but winds should be light, possibly tending S’ly during the day. E swell continues in the 3-5ft range, although this size will likely be finessed as we get closer to the date depending on the track of the cyclone. 

Plenty of E swell is expected to hang on into Wed, although I think wave models might be overcooking it a notch or two, we should still see at least 3-4ft of surf through the day. Winds are likely  to go light and variable  as a trough deepens off the NSW Coast, likely the Mid North Coast.

Longer term and with high pressure continuing to move at Summer latitudes, and the trough off the coast, we may well see a rinse and repeat cycle of E to E/SE swell and a few days of onshore winds next week. The long lead time suggests substantial revision, but the La Niña style pattern seems to show no signs of letting up.

Check back Wed for the next update.