TC expected to drift into the Coral Sea with another extended round of E'ly swell ahead
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 4th Apr)
Forecast Summary (tl;dr)
- Surf easing quickly Mon with a couple of small days Mon/Tues with light winds
- Tropical cyclone expected to form late Mon/Tues- with E/NE-NE cyclone swell late Wed, more likely early Thurs
- Plenty of E'ly swell building in from later Wed, into Thurs, and over Fri-Mon at significant levels, with S to SE winds
- La Nina pattern continues through medium term, stay tuned for updates
Recap
Southern NSW was massive over the weekend, especially Saturday but our region saw a much reduced load of S swell, apart from one strong pulse Sat a’noon. Sat started small- in the 3-5ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD. A strong pulse after lunch in NENSW saw a wide spread of 6-8ft surf, with S facing beaches in the 10ft range. SEQLD saw much smaller 3ft surf- this pulse barely showed north of the border. Winds were foul NE, in excess of 20 knots so surfable locations were exceedingly rare. Surf dropped back quickly Sun, around 3-4ft in NENSW and 2-3ft in SEQLD and today we’re back down to very small surf in the 1-2ft range across the region with light winds.
Best of the S swell Sat before the Nor-easter hacked it to bits
This week (Apr 4-8)
A weak troughy pattern lies over most of the East Coast at the moment, with the remnants of the deep Tasman low meandering off the Gippsland Coast. This weak pattern persists until Wed, when a formidable blocking pattern consisting of a large peanut-shaped high pressure system sets up a strong ridge along the entire East Coast. That will direct a deep E’ly flow onto the coast throughout the f/cast region. A depression just to the North-West of New Caledonia now has a high chance of forming a tropical cyclone (Fili) with this system expected to supply some pulses of swell from the NE to E quadrant as it tracks into the Coral Sea. A large cradling fetch of E to SE winds is also aimed at sub-tropical areas and should produce plenty of swell for the region this week. In short we are looking at another extended run of E’ly swell, favouring the Points.
In the short run and tomorrow will be the last day of light winds and nice conditions so make the most of it. Not much surf to speak of, just a tiny signal, in the 1ft range early. Offshore winds early, will clock around E/SE through the a’noon. These winds will be fresher across SEQLD as the ridge starts to build.
SE winds start to ramp up Wed, setting the tone for the rest of the week. Expect lighter winds early, with classic Summer sou-easters in the 15-20knot range through most of the day from mid/late morning. We’ll see short range swell from that direction start to slowly build through the day, although it will be short period and low quality, suitable only for the outer Points and a few semi-protected bechbreaks.
Models do show a small signal of NE swell coming from the cyclone but I’m extremely dubious on this source. These NE swells tend to be inhibited by island shadowing off New Caledonia which swell models don’t account for.
Keep an eye on some stray 2-3ft sets out of the NE later in the day, most likely on the Sunshine Coast.
Thursday is the most likely day for a pulse of NE swell from the cyclone as it tracks SW past the tip of Grand Terre. There’s better odds for some 3ft+ sets, 3-4ft on the Sunshine Coast through Thurs morning. Light S’ly winds early will open up semi-protected beachbreaks before winds swing SE through the day. Shorter period E swell from the cradling fetch is expected to build into the 3ft range through the day.
By Friday we’ll still be in the same pattern with SE winds, tending more E to E/SE further south from Yamba. E’ly swell is expected to ramp up quite significantly during the day. Expect surf to build from the 3ft+ range up into the 4-5ft range during the day, courtesy of the large fetch of cradling E to E/SE winds which the cyclone will be pushing against. Another stacked day of surf on the Points is on the cards for Friday. There will be some S’ly swell trains in the mix but given the prevailing E’ly swell and SE winds it’s unlikely they’ll be able to be utilised and will be more Background energy to the E swell.
This weekend (Apr 9-10)
The high will be tracking E across the Tasman Sea later this week and into the weekend but the synoptic wind remains entrenched through Saturday, with SE winds. There’ll be a solid whack of E swell in the water Sat, at least 4-6ft. We will need to finesse this depending on the movement of the potential cyclone, but the anchoring fetch is strong and persistent so we can bank on that providing solid surf. Another day of waves on the Points with a chance of some beachies coming online early in the morning with lighter SW to S winds early.
Sunday repeats the dose. Wave heights may come down a notch from peaks reached on Sat, back into the 3-5ft range but there’ll be heaps of size for the Points. Winds will remain from the S. There is a troughy area of low pressure off the SEQLD/NENSW Coast which may do some funky things to local winds- but they should be good things like make the wind drop out. We’ll update that on Wed. All in all, there’ll be a stack of good surf Sun on the Points.
Next week (Apr11 onwards)
Plenty of action from the E to start of next week. Models show the cyclone or ex cyclone slow moving to the SE over the weekend before a turn to the S, with a large fetch of E to ESE’ly winds anchoring the system. That maintains plenty of E swell for the entire East Coast into next week.
Winds will be the main factor but at this stage Mon looks great with a light SW to SE flow. Coupled with 4-6ft of E swell there should be heaps of good options.
A small trough complicates things Tues but winds should be light, possibly tending S’ly during the day. E swell continues in the 3-5ft range, although this size will likely be finessed as we get closer to the date depending on the track of the cyclone.
Plenty of E swell is expected to hang on into Wed, although I think wave models might be overcooking it a notch or two, we should still see at least 3-4ft of surf through the day. Winds are likely to go light and variable as a trough deepens off the NSW Coast, likely the Mid North Coast.
Longer term and with high pressure continuing to move at Summer latitudes, and the trough off the coast, we may well see a rinse and repeat cycle of E to E/SE swell and a few days of onshore winds next week. The long lead time suggests substantial revision, but the La Niña style pattern seems to show no signs of letting up.
Check back Wed for the next update.
Comments
Wow
That forecast typically fills all the carparks down cooly/kirra. Now throw in holiday crowds, ocean swim series particpants and 7000 odd Aussie Lifesaving title competitors. Hmmm.
Early bird catches the worm or get the car park
For sure mate - don't bother haha
The positive outcome is that a large majority of surfers are all at one break, opening up less crowded options elsewhere
Ocean swim should be interesting with 6 foot of swell out there……..read: it won’t happen
Wanna speculate on Easter Steve?
Give me one more day on that Surfalot.
JTWC has put out a tropical cyclone formation alert for Invest 99P which is APPROXIMATELY
276 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU.
They seem pretty confident it will undergo cyclogenesis overnight.
Awesome - cheers Steve.
So I always wonder what you call a swell-producing set up like this.
Is it a trade wind swell, or maybe a supercharged trade wind swell because of the extra oomph from the cyclone.
A good wind swell or heading into proper groundswell territory?
trade-swell with benefits.
Us Cane Toads are praying for her to park-up around 162 deg East, 25 deg South, at 980 hPa (ish) and crank away for a week. Some corduroy would be a sight for these sore eyes. And bring on the jelly legs!
With the average bells forecast,it would be interesting to know how many pros are already in Oz with this forecast in mind
This is really hard to read!!
Forecasts like this make me miss the east a lot!! 17 years tomorrow : (
Saw a shark yesterday, which I never thought I would. Breached 3m away from me and another guy, did like a quick 180ish turn with splashing and then disappeared, looked to be chasing a fish. 1.5m roughly and looking at photos I'd say a bull shark or juvenile white based on the fin. Most people paddled in and a lady saw it from the beach as well.
Was at a crescent head back beach, MNC, water quality and visibility was 0/10 and there were heaps of dolphins as well.
I suprisingly want scared because it happened so quick, was smallish and was obviously just getting a feed. I still paddled in though, as did most everyone, the waves were dying and I'd had my fill of waves.
Hopefully the last time!
Early Feb a 5mt GWS swam thru the Crescent line up.
I had just driven up from Sydney when that happened. Pulled into town, waxed up the bonz and was walking down to the jump off when everyone started getting out of the water. I had a shit week and was jonesing for any kind of surf so wasn't too stoked but at least no one hurt.
And around same time Mr Brokensha surfed an Outer bank in that area until Dusk.
Yep, felt sketch!
I predict multiple shark sightings, at Noosa this weekend from jetskis
Hey juegas same same leaping twirling Noah probs around 10/20m from a mate and I here near the Clarence last week . On the quick paddle in we gave it a bronze medal but upgrade to silver on the beach cos all our bits were still intact. Thinking it was a bull under 2m
such a fantastic time of year. tuesday/wed last week gave me some of the roundest barrels I have had all year.... and not just at the points this time!! here's to more this weekend and next week!!
Hey Sheep the ECMWF model is showing a strong north pulse in the swell for Thurs / Fri - could be good for certain point breaks north of Bribie. What’s your update on that Nth East swell? Are you back in the water yet?
I'm feeling very bullish on this NE pulse, according to EC.
Especially up there.
Still a bit of model divergence, GFS has much less favourable track.
Almost back in the water, getting there.
When a Sheep gets Bullish, one is wise to listen, Old Jungle Saying.
Hope to see you out there soon mate ✌️
You think you'll be good for a surf FR?
No, not this swell Flow.
Still looking at baby steps in baby food.
I’m feeling bullish(after googling it’s meaning) after you mentioned you’re feeling bullish FR. I don’t know why I’ve never heard that. Seems along similar lines about gates and china shops
If you lot get waves half as good as last Tuesday when I was up in Qld, then you'll be having a veritable picnic. You lucky, lucky bastards - it's gone the full gronk again in Vic.
Was named a TC by JTWC this morning, now officially named by Fiji as TC Fili.
Good luck, everybody. Hope it turns into a feast.
Sorry to hear that you're quite there, Steve.
Also from earlier this morning --- "It no longer looks as though Fili will reach typhoon strength. The peak intensity forecast has been reduced to 110 km/h (60 knots) due to the wind shear associated with the subtropical westerlies.
The peak intensity will come during the next 24 hours as Fili, now named Fili by the Fiji meteorology agency, makes the turn to the south-southeast and gets even better outflow conditions even though it will still have to overcome significant windshear."
What a fine looking system to produce 5 days + of great point break waves.
Best one of the season?
Noosa..... Noosa..noosa... noosa noosa... noosa.
Get on it blow ins....... Five points to choose from!!!! Pretty much a point per person!!!! School holidays means everyone from noosa has left on their superyacht for Monaco or bermuda or some other taxfree haven. It'll be empty....yewwww!!!!
If only people would have a bit of respect for others, engage in a bit of surf etiquette, go to the end of the line-up, wait your turn, then there'd be enough Noosa to go around regardless of how crowded it becomes. Ha ha ha hhaa hahha haha haha hah ha ha ha ha ha ha hha hahaaa hhhaaah ha aha ahha haha hah ha ha hah ah ha ha...
Imagine all the wasted waves with kookcity getting the sets. Leave it as it is
Solar powered floodlights from Granite to groyne for the holiday period.
Looks like that fetch might have just produced some swell before New Cal blocked it. This is the altimeter (sea height) readings.
https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/rscat_images/sgwh/sgwh_wh_cur/zooms/...
yep, already showing on Wide Bay/Burnett coast.
And Noosa
Goldy now
Thats good news. Thought it might not show there until after dark.
Actually I just surfed. Maybe very early signs but it was pretty weak
Steve when do you think this NE pulse will fade seeing that it has arrived already? Cheers
It should hold in through tomorrow, with overlapping shorter range E/SE swell building in over the top of it.
Thanks mate
A few after work waves on Capricorn coast atm ...get up for the early tmoro Chaps..