South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 24th August)

Best Days: Tues: solid S'ly tending S/SE swell in Northern NSW (much smaller in SE Qld, with a delay), plus generally good conditions. Wed/Thurs/Fri: smaller from the S/SE but generally clean in the north with light winds. Wed has a risk of S'ly winds in Northern NSW. Sat: building S'ly swell in Northern NSW (very small in SE Qld).  

Recap: Small leftover S’ly swells provided fun early Saturday waves across south facing beaches in Northern NSW, with peaky 2ft+ sets and offshore winds. Size eased through the day, ahead of a fresh, unusual S/SE swell on Sunday generated by westerly gales pushing off the NSW coast on Saturday. This swell didn’t favour many beaches, but sets between 2ft to almost 2-3ft were reported at a handful of reliable south swell magnets. This swell eased slowly into today but has been overtaken by yet another S’ly swell, this time generated by a strong front and low below Tasmania. South facing beaches in Northern NSW have built from 4-5ft to 4-6ft through the day (with a delay on this in the north) and the acute southerly swell direction has resulted in long breaks of tiny conditions throughout SE Qld.

The dawn patrol at Coffs

Early Monday lines at D'Bah

Monday morning sets at Snapper Rocks

Small surf early Monday on the Sunny Coast

Feathering lunchtime sets at Coffs

This week (Aug 25 - 28)

Judging by the swell trend across Southern NSW - which is still on the way up - we’re not likely to see a peak from this event until Tuesday afternoon. In fact, some locations should see size persisting through Wednesday morning before a steady decline kicks in for the rest of the week.

Wave heights should reach 5-6ft+ at south facing beaches south of Byron, but the crucial aspect of this swell for SE Qld’s surf potential will be its direction. We really need more S/SE in order for most beaches and outer points to maximise the size potential, and this will occur across the back half of the swell event due to the way the source front/low has pushed through the Tasman Sea. 

So although I’m still expecting 2-3ft sets across the outer Gold Coast points (and 4ft+ sets at exposed northern ends and south swell magnets), this size range may not quite be in the water early Tuesday. However winds will remain light all day so there’s no need to rush for the early session anyway. Across the Sunny Coast, expect a little less size overall (than the Gold Coast) but there’ll be decent options at south friendly beaches (protected spots will remain tiny though).

The slow easing trend through Wednesday will be accompanied by generally light winds in the north though a weak, shallow front may clip the Mid North Coast during the day and perhaps the Northern Rivers, swinging winds to the south and freshening. 

Thursday and Friday should see a levelling of south swell across Northern NSW, thanks to two sources - a modest SW fetch exiting eastern Bass Strait later Tuesday, and its strong though poorly aligned parent front, passing below Tasmania. This should maintain inconsistent 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches both days, with perhaps a few bigger waves at times on Friday though most other beaches will be quite a bit smaller. Light winds and sea breezes are expected both days.

Across SE Qld, the S/SE swell from Wednesday will ease back through Thursday, still enough for some 2ft sets at exposed northern ends but much smaller elsewhere, and Friday it’ll be very small at most spots. A developing ridge through the Coral Sea may generate a small spread of short range E’ly swell for the region (mainly Sunny Coast) but I don’t think it’ll amount to much. Light winds and sea breezes will pad out the rest of the week here.

This weekend (Aug 29 - 30)

A significant cold front will cross the Tasmanian divide overnight Thursday, rocketing into the lower Tasman Sea into Friday and providing a strong boost in S’ly swell overnight Friday, building across Northern NSW on Saturday (arriving after lunch in the Far North). 

At this stage the source fetch will be moving quickly through the swell window, so there’s a good chance it’ll offer only a brief peak in size. Early indications are for 4-6ft sets at south facing beaches (south of Byron), with much smaller surf elsewhere.

I’m not liking this swell much for SE Qld thanks to the way this front passes quickly to the east, so the best we’ll get will be a brief flush of 1-2ft sets at the outer Gold Coast points, bigger near 3ft at exposed northern ends but smaller across the Sunshine Coast. 

Rapidly easing surf is then due on Sunday (though initially some strong leftover sets in the north), with winds swinging to the north and freshening. So, aim for a Saturday session at this stage. 

Next week (Aug 31 onwards)

More strong fronts are expected through the lower Tasman Sea next week, maintaining the southerly swell regime for some time. It’s too early to pin down specific events, but next week does look pretty active with no shortage of size on the cards. 

See you Wednesday.