This deep S’ly fetch is expected to see wave heights build through Mon but conditions aren’t expected to be great with a strong high pressure ridge building in the wake of the front and mod S to SE winds expected.
A SE/NW angled trough in the Tasman is likely to deepen on Tuesday, possibly forming a surface low. GFS model has this low forming off the Central NSW coast, EC forms a low much further north in the Tasman, close to Norfolk Island, with a very different surf outlook from Tuesday onwards.
Tuesday is where model divergence becomes apparent. A SE/NW angled trough in the Tasman is likely to deepen on Tuesday 14/9, possibly forming a surface low. GFS model has this low forming off the Central NSW coast, EC forms a low much further north in the Tasman, close to Norfolk Island, with a very different surf outlook from Tuesday onwards.
Get stuck in today down South ahead of strengthening W/NW winds tomorrow. Stormy surf is due to develop across both coasts Sunday, improving into early next week while easing.
Good surf today and over the weekend before things go slow from mid-late next week.
This front is expected to be a swell producer for the NE Coast with a deep S’ly fetch tied to a complex low tracking NE through Mon and bringing a steep increase in new S swell through the day. Unfortunately this will come with S’ly through SSE’ly winds so you’ll need to find somewhere out of the wind to surf and sacrifice some size.
Plenty more surf days ahead with lots of swell and workable winds from exposed breaks to more protected locations.
Remarkably, mid period energy from the E, caused by a persistent long E’ly tradewind fetch in the South Pacific, will still be chugging away in the background with both size and consistency slowly easing back. If you've missed out, might be time to down tools tomorrow to grab a few before it's all gone.
Better windows of winds and conditions are due to open up this period along with plenty of swell from all directions.
Not much change expected from Mon’s f/cast notes apart from the timing on the expected long period S pulse over the next 24hrs. ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes showed plenty of storm force winds associated with the deep low as it transited the Tasman overnight and into this morning.
