S swell Mon with easing surf and better winds Tues/Wed
Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Sep10)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Tiny over the weekend
- Stronger S swell Mon (with S'ly winds), tending to SSE swell Tues, easing right back Wed
- Possible NE windswell Fri/Sat next week.
Not much surf on offer in NETAS yesterday with only marginal swells on offer. Today has seen a small rise in S swell with some 2ft surf at S exposed breaks as a cold front pushes into the lower Tasman sea. Winds were W/SW as the front pushed through and have now tended more NW in the wake of the front.
This weekend and next week (Sep11- Sep 19)
No change to the weekend f/cast. Tiny surf is expected both days fresh N to NW winds Sat, tending W/NW Sunday before a late S/SW change as a front and deep S’ly fetch passes by.
This deep S’ly fetch is expected to see wave heights build through Mon into the 4ft range but conditions aren’t expected to be great with a strong high pressure ridge building in the wake of the front and mod S to SE winds expected.
That high pressure cell is then expected to drift over Tasmania during Tues and Wed bringing much more settled and calm conditions compared to recent weeks.
Tuesday looks a better bet as a lingering SE fetch in the lower Tasman maintains a steady drumbeat of 3ft swell and winds ease back into a regime of light and variable seabreezes.
This swell should provide fun 2-3ft surf into Wed before easing through the day.
The rest of the week is dominated by slow moving high pressure with a low in the Tasman expected to be too far north to have any effective fetch in the Eastern Tasmania swell window.
The dominant high does offer some surf potential to end next week with an increased N’ly flow possible adjacent to the NSW South Coast and into Bass Strait through Fri. Models aren’t completely aligned on that prospect so we’ll need to come back Mon and revisit but for now we’ll flag the potential for 2-3ft NE windswell next Fri or Sat and check back Mon for a full analysis.