South Australian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday November 11th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Period of light winds early Tuesday with fun surf at Victor (too small on the Mid)
• Onshore winds spoiling everywhere on Wednesday
• Fun small groundswell for the Mid on Thurs/Fri with good AM winds
• Thursday looks bumpy at Victor but Friday should offer a window of OK waves
• Good surf early Saturday at Victor
• Small stormy for the Mid Sunday (building down south later, then easing Mon)

Recap

We’ve seen an excellent spell of waves across both coasts for the last few days. The Mid Coast produced 2-3ft+ sets on Saturday, down a smidge to 2-3ft Sunday before easing from 1-2ft to 1ft today. Victor Harbor offered 4-6ft sets across the Middleton stretch on Saturday and Sunday (odd bigger sets at the swell magnets late Sat/early Sunday) with generally clean conditions through the mornings ahead of freshening sea breezes in the afternoon. Surf size has eased to 3-5ft today and the morning once again saw light winds and favourable conditions before the southerly kicked in. 

Mid Coast looking purdy on Saturday

This week (Nov 12 - 15)

Lingering troughiness to our east and a weak ridge of high pressure through the Bight will create unstable conditions early Tuesday which may result in periods of variable winds across the coast. 

The main beneficiary for this will be Victor Harbor, which will also see slowly easing groundswell from 3-4ft to 2-3ft at Middleton, offering worthwhile waves through the morning. The Mid Coast will only have tiny leftover surf and probably won’t offer much to ride (unless you’re a beginner).

A small low is expected to form over the gulfs during the day before moving eastwards, and this will bring fresh SW winds to all areas later in the afternoon. A weak front will then pass across the southern part of the state early Wednesday morning, reinvigorating the SW flow and maintaining low quality conditions everywhere for Wednesday. Winds will ease through the day but probably tend more S’ly. Surf prospects will be limited to an initial increase in local windswell, which won’t be very big and won’t have much quality.

Wednesday’s front will have a reasonable fetch trailing back into the Southern Ocean, and this will generate a useful groundswell for Thursday. The Mid Coast should see some small waves all day in the 1-2ft range (odd bigger set on the afternoon tidal push) and early light offshore winds will create clean conditions in the morning ahead of afternoon sea breezes.

Expect more size at Victor around 3ft at Middleton but generally bumpy with onshore winds. 

A similar size range is expected on Friday (for both coasts) as winds swing around to a light easterly. This may result in an early NE breeze down south though surface lumpiness will probably linger. 

Either way, both Thursday and Friday are looking OK for a paddle on both coasts, just expect a bit of groveling on the Mid at times. 

This weekend (Nov 16 - 17)

Saturday morning looks great at Victor with easing swells and freshening northerly winds as a vigorous front approaches from the west. Size should see early 2ft sets at Middleton (bigger at the swell magnets) but at this stage model guidance is suggesting an early/mid afternoon arrival of gusty W’ly winds so you’ll have to surf early. 

This front looks like it’ll have enough strength to generate a small stormy for the Mid Coast though it’s not yet apparent if we’ll see enough of an increase before close of business Saturday. 

Either way, Sunday will deliver fresh to strong onshore winds and large building local swells at Victor and a mix of energy on the Mid, probably 2-3ft of mid-range swell plus whatever windswell loading on top, dependent on local wind strength. 

Let’s fine tune things on Wednesday.

Next week (Nov 18 onwards)

A deep mid-latitude low associated with the weekend's front will clear our swell window by Monday so surf size will steadily ease, though a series of strong fronts in the Southern Ocean over the days prior will maintain a decent undercurrent of swell through most of next week (inconsistent 2-3ft at Middleton most days, a few small days of activity on the Mid too, though nothing especially worthwhile).

Otherwise there are presently no major swell generating patterns on the long term horizon. 

See ya Wednesday.