Good run for the Mid

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

South Australian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday February 19th)

Best Days: Mid Coast tomorrow, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Inconsistent W/SW groundswell Fri PM on the Mid with NW tending variable then stronger SW winds, peaking Sat with S/SE-SE tending S/SW winds
  • More consistent, bigger W/SW swell pulse Sat PM, easing Sun with fresh morning S/SE winds
  • Moderate to large W/SW groundswell building Mon with S/SW winds (S-S/SE at times on the Mid early and late), easing a touch Tue with stronger S/SE winds, smaller Wed with morning SE winds


Good waves for the exposed beaches down South the last couple of days with hot offshore winds and small, easing surf.

Today we've got a new, inconsistent W/SW groundswell on the build with 1-1.5ft waves on the Mid Coast that should kick nicely with the tide to 2ft this afternoon. Winds will shift N/NW early afternoon, variable for a short period ahead of a stronger S/SW change, so timing the window of lighter winds will be the pick.

This weekend and next week (Feb 18 - 26)

From this afternoon through most of the period, the Mid Coast will be the pick of the regions with varying pulses of W/SW swell and with more favourable winds. It won't be perfect at times with cross-shore morning breezes but better than the South Coast which will be choppy and poor.

Today's first pulse of W/SW groundswell will be followed up by a better increase tomorrow with inconsistent sets to 2ft due across the Mid Coast, 2ft or so across Middleton. Winds will swing S/SE-SE tomorrow morning, creating clean conditions ahead of sea breezes, back to the S/SE late.

Now, a mid-latitude low that formed under WA yesterday and was expected to generate a tiny reinforcing pulse of swell for Sunday is now looking a bit stronger. It's currently dipping south-east while strengthening but last night and early this morning it generated a burst of strong to gale-force W/SW winds through our swell window.

This should produce a pulse to 2-3ft tomorrow afternoon on the Mid, with Sunday seeing easy 2ft sets while Middleton should pulse to 2-3ft. Fresh S/SE morning winds will favour the former Sunday (S'ly down South), with afternoon SW sea breezes, back to the S/SE on dark again.

Our strong, long-period and inconsistent W/SW groundswell for Monday is on track, with a great fetch of storm-force winds generated through our far south-western swell window, currently weaker and back to severe-gale strength while being projected towards the Bight. The 'bombing' low will continue to weaken while moving east, though maintain bursts of strong to gale-force W/SW winds through our south-western swell window tomorrow, a touch weaker Sunday while projecting under us.

We'll see a moderate-large sized, prolonged W/SW tending SW swell event with the strongest, long-period energy arriving Monday and building towards a peak from midday, into the afternoon.

There's no change to the expected size with Middleton due to reach 4-5ft (if not for the odd bigger cleanup) with 2-3ft surf on the Mid Coast. Winds look more S/SW on Monday generally, lighter and more S-S/SE at dawn on the Mid (far from perfect), back to the S/SE on dark.

Tuesday should continue to offer plenty of size to 2ft to occasionally 3ft with S/SE winds holding all day, strong at times. The South Coast looks to ease slowly from 4-5ft.

Winds will swing more SE Wednesday with the swell easing more noticeably from 1-2ft on the Mid Coast, 3-4ft down South, still onshore and poor Thursday down South with SE winds.

Longer term, we've got another significant polar low on the cards for mid-next week, with a moderate-large S/SW groundswell likely next weekend. Winds are still up in the air though look more than likely S/SE-SE, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!


thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 19 Feb 2021 at 3:17pm

Here's that arvo pulse as Craig noted.

Stef_Olly's picture
Stef_Olly's picture
Stef_Olly Friday, 19 Feb 2021 at 5:45pm

Haven't seen a forecast this promising in a while should be utter chaos but bring it on! Yeeew!

Dannyboy2's picture
Dannyboy2's picture
Dannyboy2 Friday, 19 Feb 2021 at 7:31pm

Hi everyone, great to see waves on the mid coast for the next 5days; had some great waves up in QLD early this month; great to be back home;Owe Danny Boy;

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref Friday, 19 Feb 2021 at 8:58pm

That’s a great run for the mid. Been a while since I’ve lived in SA but I’ve got great memories of a similar run at about this time of year early to mid 2000s. Warm water, chest to head high plus and pumping for about 4-5 days. LAGOs after work. Glorious.