Good run for the Mid
South Australian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday February 19th)
Best Days: Mid Coast tomorrow, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday morning
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Inconsistent W/SW groundswell Fri PM on the Mid with NW tending variable then stronger SW winds, peaking Sat with S/SE-SE tending S/SW winds
- More consistent, bigger W/SW swell pulse Sat PM, easing Sun with fresh morning S/SE winds
- Moderate to large W/SW groundswell building Mon with S/SW winds (S-S/SE at times on the Mid early and late), easing a touch Tue with stronger S/SE winds, smaller Wed with morning SE winds
Good waves for the exposed beaches down South the last couple of days with hot offshore winds and small, easing surf.
Today we've got a new, inconsistent W/SW groundswell on the build with 1-1.5ft waves on the Mid Coast that should kick nicely with the tide to 2ft this afternoon. Winds will shift N/NW early afternoon, variable for a short period ahead of a stronger S/SW change, so timing the window of lighter winds will be the pick.
This weekend and next week (Feb 18 - 26)
From this afternoon through most of the period, the Mid Coast will be the pick of the regions with varying pulses of W/SW swell and with more favourable winds. It won't be perfect at times with cross-shore morning breezes but better than the South Coast which will be choppy and poor.
Today's first pulse of W/SW groundswell will be followed up by a better increase tomorrow with inconsistent sets to 2ft due across the Mid Coast, 2ft or so across Middleton. Winds will swing S/SE-SE tomorrow morning, creating clean conditions ahead of sea breezes, back to the S/SE late.
Now, a mid-latitude low that formed under WA yesterday and was expected to generate a tiny reinforcing pulse of swell for Sunday is now looking a bit stronger. It's currently dipping south-east while strengthening but last night and early this morning it generated a burst of strong to gale-force W/SW winds through our swell window.
This should produce a pulse to 2-3ft tomorrow afternoon on the Mid, with Sunday seeing easy 2ft sets while Middleton should pulse to 2-3ft. Fresh S/SE morning winds will favour the former Sunday (S'ly down South), with afternoon SW sea breezes, back to the S/SE on dark again.
Our strong, long-period and inconsistent W/SW groundswell for Monday is on track, with a great fetch of storm-force winds generated through our far south-western swell window, currently weaker and back to severe-gale strength while being projected towards the Bight. The 'bombing' low will continue to weaken while moving east, though maintain bursts of strong to gale-force W/SW winds through our south-western swell window tomorrow, a touch weaker Sunday while projecting under us.
We'll see a moderate-large sized, prolonged W/SW tending SW swell event with the strongest, long-period energy arriving Monday and building towards a peak from midday, into the afternoon.
There's no change to the expected size with Middleton due to reach 4-5ft (if not for the odd bigger cleanup) with 2-3ft surf on the Mid Coast. Winds look more S/SW on Monday generally, lighter and more S-S/SE at dawn on the Mid (far from perfect), back to the S/SE on dark.
Tuesday should continue to offer plenty of size to 2ft to occasionally 3ft with S/SE winds holding all day, strong at times. The South Coast looks to ease slowly from 4-5ft.
Winds will swing more SE Wednesday with the swell easing more noticeably from 1-2ft on the Mid Coast, 3-4ft down South, still onshore and poor Thursday down South with SE winds.
Longer term, we've got another significant polar low on the cards for mid-next week, with a moderate-large S/SW groundswell likely next weekend. Winds are still up in the air though look more than likely S/SE-SE, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!