Great week ahead for the South Coast
South Australian Forecast (issued Monday 21st July)
Best Days: Every day down South
Conditions were great across the South Coast all weekend, with excellent conditions for the Hurley Winter Classic at Waits with an easing 3-5ft of swell and offshore tending variable breeze. The Mid Coast was also good with a smaller but fun and easing 1-2ft of swell.
Sunday was smaller but just as good as offshore N/NE winds persisted most of the day. A late increase in new S/SW groundswell should have been seen and this has held well into this morning with clean waves in the 4ft range across most breaks under offshore N/NE winds. Winds should persist from the N/NE all day as the swell drops back a touch.
This week (Jul 21 – 25)
The South Coast will be great all week with persistent offshore winds from the northern quadrant and without too much strength. A couple of fun pulses of swell are also due, but today will be the biggest of the period.
A drop in size is due this afternoon down South and further through tomorrow as winds persist from the N/NE all day. Middleton should ease from 2ft to occasionally 3ft with 3-4ft sets at Waits.
A new SW groundswell should top wave heights up back to 2ft+ across Middleton and 3ft to occasionally 4ft at Waits and Parsons on Wednesday before dropping back into Thursday and further Friday.
Winds will be a little fresher from the N/NE Wednesday before tending E/NE into the late afternoon, so surf before lunch for the best conditions. Thursday and Friday should then see N/NE tending variable winds.
This weekend onwards (Jul 19 onwards)
As touched on last update the models were divergent regarding the development of a strong frontal progression under the country and towards us through the second half of the week, and unfortunately they settled with ECMWF's forecast. This forecast is for a weak and unsubstantial surface trough to move in slowly from the west, effectively setting up a weak blocking pattern across our swell windows.
What this will result in is no real decent swell for us at all through the end of the week or into the start of the weekend. The Mid should see a pulse to 1-1.5ft later Friday and through Saturday but that's about it.
In saying that conditions will remain favourable for the South Coast through Saturday with N/NW winds and a good swell for beginners at Middleton and more experienced surfers at Waits.
Into later Sunday and more so Monday a strong new W/SW groundswell is due, that being a mix of long-range and medium-range energy W/SW groundswell from a vigorous mid-latitude frontal progression pushing east towards the country.
This progression should push through the Bight over the weekend, with a late kick in size due across both coasts, likely to 2ft+ on the Mid and 3-4ft at Middleton with 4-5ft sets at Waits as winds swing from the N/NW to a weak SW'ly.
A peak is due Monday to 2-3ft on the Mid, 3-4ft+ at Middleton and 5ft at Waits and winds look favourable with a general variable breeze that should tend locally offshore. We'll confirm all this on Wednesday though.