N/NW pulse due Sunday morning under persistent E'ly trade flow

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Guy Dixon (Guy Dixon)

Hawaii North Shore forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Saturday 12th March)

Best Days: Sunday and Monday morning.

This weekend (Saturday 12th - Sunday 13th):

Options look to fade from the 3-4ft range on Saturday preceding a fresh pulse due Sunday morning generated by an interesting fetch which has been positioned much further east than recent systems.

West/northwesterly core fetches of around 40-50kts have been working on waters within the vicinity of the Aleutian Islands, and despite their poor alignment, the North Shore should still pick up some decent size from the north/northwest.

The long range forerunners look to be in the water by Sunday morning, with most of the size following soon after where sets look break in the 10-12ft range under a persistent easterly trade flow, larger on Maui.

Next Week (Monday 14th onward):

Size should fade throughout Monday, easing from the 6-8ft range, with an easterly breeze also backing off and tending more east/southeasterly.

Despite favourable light variable breezes on Tuesday, it's looking more like a lay day with only background energy filling in between swells.

Wednesday is due to see a fresh swell build, although funky. A low looks to develop to the north of Hawaii the day before, shifting northeast with fetches of around 45-55kts along the western quadrants at its peak.

The resultant swell looks to build to around 6ft by the late afternoon, further on Thursday to around 8ft, although with an element of local windswell also in the mix due to weaker fetches extending towards the North Shore.

For the duration of this swell, conditions look to lack quality severely due to the aforementioned local fetch. Moderate/fresh northerly breezes look to dominate on Wednesday, tending more northeasterly on Thursday - nothing to get overly excited about.