Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 31st July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell likely Tues/Wed
• Stronger NE windswell expected Thurs/Fri next week
• Plenty of S swell the weekend with fresh SW winds likely
• Easing surf next week wth a spell of tiny waves likely

Recap

Small NE windswell wrap was on offer over the weekend, tiny on Sat with a small increase to 2ft on Sun with fresh NW winds. Strong/gale force NW winds out of Bass Strait today have maintained NE windswell to 2ft or so. 

This week and next week (Aug1 - Aug 11)

We’ve got a classic winter, stratified pattern with a high pressure belt over the continent, extending out into the Tasman Sea and a robust W’ly storm track below the maritime continent. We’ll see frontal intrusion into the Tasman early this week, with a small front passing into the Tasman today and a stronger system following behind it tomorrow- generating small pulses of S swell. Once the dominant high enters the Tasman on Wed we’ll see a N’ly pattern start to establish, more typical of Spring/Summer, with some workable NE windswell associated with it.

In the short run and W-W/SW gales sweeping past Tasmania overnight and into tomorrow generate some small S swell wrap up into the 2ft range through tomorrow with W/SW winds tending SW then W’ly again in the wake of the front.

Winds then tend NW through Wed, possibly more N’ly in the a’noon as high pressure moves NE of Tasmania. S swell holds 2ft sets at S facing beaches through the morning before easing through the day.

N’ly winds freshen off the South Coast Thurs, not ideally aligned for NE windswell production but strong enough to see surf build from that source into the 2ft+ range with the odd 3ft set in the a’noon.

Similar size NE windswell Fri but winds look tricky as a long angled trough and compact low pressure area push over Tasmania. That should see freshening NW winds potentially tend W’ly through the a’noon. We’ll finesse that on Fri.

Into the weekend and we should see some local S swell generated as a compact trough/low move SE and gales develop off the coast. S swell from these proximate winds is expected to build into the 3ft range Sat with fresh SW winds.

Source of S swell this weekend

The low is slow moving and plenty of S swell in the 3-4ft range is expected, with SW winds easing during the day.

A troughy pattern is expected in the Tasman next week. 

 Not much surf is expected to start the week, likely in the 2ft range Mon, easing into Tues.

By mid next week, major models suggest a broad area of low pressure in the Tasman, with EC locating this area in the Northern Tasman at sub-tropical latitudes and GFS positioning it off the NSW temperate coast.

Both scenarios suggest tiny surf for NETas into mid/late next week.

Check back Wed for the latest.