More S swell incoming as winter-strength fronts continue

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Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Sep6)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Strong S swell pulse TuesPM, holding Wed morning before easing
  • S swell pulse Sun PM, bigger Mon
  • Small S swell Fri
  • Stronger S swell Sun PM/Mon AM


Small but fun NE windswell leftovers were on the menu Sat morning with light S’ly breezes. Surf eased right back through Sun before building from the S today as a complex low drifted east into the lower Tasman from the NSW South Coast.

This  week and weekend (Sep6- Sep 12)

Winter style cold fronts are continuing to strafe Tasmania with a mostly fresh W’ly flow expected over the week, tending SW as the fronts pass then NW to W in between.

The current S swell from the Tasman sea source is expected to ease through the morning before a much stronger swell fills in later in the day Tuesday. 

This swell will be generated by a deep low centred around 50S which is expected to track south of Tasmania later tonight, with a slight NE wobble as it transits the Tasman on Tuesday. This is a powerful storm, with storm force winds and a large area of seas in excess of 30ft, and as a result swell periods will be in excess of 15s which will produce some real bathymetric focussing effects on deepwater reefs as  swell trains get tripped up.

Expect size to build strongly Tues PM into the 5-6ft range, with winds tending SW in the wake of the low passing by.

By Wed morning winds will swing back more WSW through W, with solid leftover sets in the 5-6ft range, easing through the day.

Thats leads to a quiet day Thursday before another small S swell pulse possible Fri , although a much more modest size is expected in the 2ft range, with winds in the W to NW quadrant and fresh expected. 

Some small amounts of NE windswell are possible Sat but Sunday looks much juicier. A front pushes into the Tasman, tied to a deep low with gales extending adjacent to the Tasmanian East coast. This is likely to see surf build into the 3-4ft range during Sun with SW winds expected.

This pulse holds Mon before easing. 

Longer term and a quieter period is expected from mid next week as a high drifts over Tasmania, possibly leading to small NE windswell by the following weekend. Check back Wed for details.