There's a good SW groundswell to end off the week but conditions will take their time to improve, cleanest once the swell is on the way out. Better surf is due mid-late next week.
Friday looks a much better bet. With the low drifting SE towards New Zealand the south and south-west flank of the low aim a fetch of SE/ESE winds back at the North-east coastline of Tasmania.
There are fun windows of waves either side of a larger swell which will be spoilt by onshore winds.
Make the most of today and the coming days before winds go onshore with building surf.
Thursday looks the day for surf to thicken up as the deeper, better aligned SSE/SE fetch generates strong SSE swell for the NE/NSW Coast with a smaller amount getting into SEQLD. With the low moving away local pressure gradients will ease and lighter SW winds will see a day of cleaner, pumping waves.
The weekend's extremely warm, benign weather is about to be swept away by a wintry blast as a trough following the passage of a cold front later today interacts with a cold pool and forms an explosive surface low Tuesday morning.
We should see a good new W/SW groundswell filling in in the wake of today's change with workable winds for the Mid tomorrow. The South Coast will clean up late week with a good new S/SW groundswell.
Poor surf once an onshore change moves in this afternoon, with good swells on the way, cleaning up later week.
The low drifts away towards New Zealand through Wed/Thurs with SE winds on the lower flank of the cut-off low sufficiently low in latitude to be in the Nor-east Tas swell window
An upper cold pool is expected to spawn a cut-off low East of Sydney during Tuesday. This is a different beast to the more polar lows that have been traversing the Tasman in the last few weeks, a classic “onion ring” system which occupies the majority of the central/southern Tasman for the majority of next week
