Large easing surf, moderate S/SW swells to follow

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 2nd July)

Best Days: Experienced surfers Wednesday and Thursday, exposed breaks each morning from Friday

This week and next (Aug 3 - 12)

This morning started a little slow but currently a strong and powerful S/SW groundswell is filling in across Bali with cross-shore winds for the reefs. This swell impacted Western Australia over the weekend, providing XXL surf across the Margaret River region along with good winds as it eased Monday.

We should see this swell peak through this afternoon in the 10-12ft range at exposed breaks (possible off bigger cleanup bomb), smaller on the Bukit reefs due to the southerly direction.

This swell will start to ease through tomorrow, but with it hanging in nicely across WA for over a day, it shouldn't be too abrupt with dropping 10ft+ sets at exposed breaks, further down from 6-8ft Thursday.

Fresh E/SE trades are expected over the coming days, weakening from Thursday with variable winds each morning due to local land breezes.

Into Friday a moderate sized S/SW groundswell is due from polar frontal activity in the wake of the mid-latitude storm generating our current oversized swell. This will just keep inconsistent 4-5ft+ waves hitting exposed breaks, easing off through Saturday and bottoming out Sunday morning.

A slightly better S/SW groundswell is due into Sunday afternoon, produced by a strong but short-lived mid-latitude front pushing towards Margs over the coming days.

Better sets to the 6ft range are due across exposed breaks into Sunday afternoon/evening, easing from a similar size Monday morning.

Behind the mid-latitude front generating Sunday/Monday's swell a couple of secondary polar fronts will project fetches of S/SW gales towards us.

The swell off these fronts looks similar, if not a touch stronger, especially Thursday. The first pulse for Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning should come in that 6ft range, with Thursday's being more 6-8ft. Expect smaller waves on the Bukit reefs due to the S/SW direction.

Beyond this there's nothing too significant due until early the week of the 16th, but more on this Thursday.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Comments

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Thursday, 4 Aug 2016 at 10:59am

Pretty solid here yesterday and some serious water moving around and I wasn't even at the exposed breaks.

the chase's picture
the chase's picture
the chase Thursday, 4 Aug 2016 at 11:14am

You get a few Don?

mr mick's picture
mr mick's picture
mr mick Thursday, 4 Aug 2016 at 11:32am

Tues: shipwrecks @ 8-10; lacerations 6-7. Sneaker sets washing thru rope & buoys & a couple whitewater ends washing up against viewing pontoons. Wed: shippies @ 6-8; lacerations 5-6. Winds light onshore putting a bump on it, turned offshore later in arvo just on time for the deadly low tide. Lot of water moving around. Some great barrels going down at lacerations

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 4 Aug 2016 at 11:46am

Thanks for the reports guys!