Guy Dixon

Inconsistent groundswell peaking on Sunday

Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Thursday 14th April)

Best Days: Saturday and Sunday, winds permitting.

This week (Friday 15th) and weekend (Saturday 16th - Sunday 17th):

We have been seeing small, weak background energy throughout Wednesday and today, left over from a modest southwesterly groundswell which peaked on Tuesday.

We are still on track to seeing a very long range southwesterly groundswell generated by a broad and strong polar frontal progression south of the African continent over the weekend.

We should begin to see energy building throughout Saturday afternoon, before peaking on Sunday with infrequent sets in the 5-6ft range.

The consistency of this swell - or lack thereof is definitely worth considering. Due to the very long range nature of this swell, there will be a long wait between sets.

An easterly trade flow should remain established over the region, although lightening into the weekend, while also tending more east/northeasterly on Saturday.

Next week (Monday 18th onwards):

As this swell drops early next week, a reinforcing south/southwesterly swell should fill in generated by a frontal progression which has moved over southeastern parts of the Indian Ocean over the past couple of days. While a kick in size is not expected, the easing trend should be slowed with sets holding in the 4-5ft range.

A light/moderate airflow looks to tend east/southeasterly on Monday, before swinging easterly mid-week.

Longer term, we should see a pair of pulses fill in on Thursday and Friday, with the second swell front being the more dominant source of energy. This swell looks to originate from a frontal progression west of Heard Island over the weekend, causing the swell to build from the 3ft range on Wednesday afternoon, to around 4-5ft on Thursday afternoon and the 5-6ft by Friday afternoon.

Comments

belly's picture
belly's picture
belly commented Friday, 15 Apr 2016 at 9:34am

Guy / swellnet crew - I noticed the Sumatra notes have not been updated since last year, should we just be looking at the Bali notes for all Indo forecasts?
Cheers :-)

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 15 Apr 2016 at 9:41am

Ah, sorry Belly forgot about the Ments/Sumatra, will update from Sunday. Cheers, Craig

belly's picture
belly's picture
belly commented Friday, 15 Apr 2016 at 9:44am

No worries Craig - I like reading maps as well :-) .. First trip this year and starting to froth

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Sunday, 17 Apr 2016 at 11:53am

Latest updates here: Ments.. Bali...