Craig

Fun pulses of swell for exposed breaks

Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Sunday 17th April)

Best Days: Every day over the coming period at swell magnets

This week and weekend (Apr 18 - 24)

Yesterday afternoon a very infrequent south-west swell started to build across the coast, and this has peaked this morning, with good waves across swell magnets and the Bukit reefs (below).

 

Ulus just now // Check the waves at balibelly.com

A photo posted by Bali Belly (@balibelly) on

This swell will ease back through this afternoon and further into tomorrow back to a very inconsistent 3-5ft across swell magnets.

A slight increase in new and more consistent S/SW swell is due Tuesday, generated by a relatively weak but pro-longed polar frontal system along the polar shelf the end of last week.

A slight kick back to 4-5ft is due across exposed breaks (very small on the Bukit), easing back through the afternoon and further into Wednesday.

Conditions should be clean each morning with light local offshores before moderate to fresh E/SE trades kick in.

Some slightly stronger polar frontal activity has occurred and will continue to occur west of Heard Island over the coming days, generating three separate pulses of inconsistent S/SW groundswell (the last more SW in direction).

The first front produced a good fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds, but the second system is a touch stronger and broader, producing a slightly larger swell. The final front will be smaller in scope but a bit more north in latitude helping produce a slightly smaller but more SW directed swell.

Thursday afternoon is when the first pulse is due to arrive, with exposed breaks due to reach an inconsistent 4-5ft into the afternoon, easing back slowly through Friday.

The secondary stronger swell is due to arrive later Saturday and peak Sunday morning to a better but inconsistent 5-6ft across exposed breaks, easing into the afternoon and further Monday.

The final more SW pulse is only due to buffer the easing trend Tuesday keeping swell magnets around 4-5ft.

Favourable winds should continue through the weekend and early next week (a touch stronger from the E/SE this Friday).

Longer term there's still nothing too significant on the cards, but we'll review this Tuesday.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Comments

spelled3's picture
spelled3's picture
spelled3 commented Sunday, 17 Apr 2016 at 12:45pm

Hi Craig - which report/forecast should I read to get a heads-up on swell at Nusa Lembongan (Shipwrecks, Playgrounds etc)? Do I take a couple of feet off etc?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Sunday, 17 Apr 2016 at 12:50pm

Yeah I'd take a couple of feet off my expected sizes in the forecast above.

Keramas Forecast sizes looks like a decent representation for that region as well.. https://www.swellnet.com/reports/indonesia/bali/keramas/forecast

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer commented Sunday, 17 Apr 2016 at 10:51pm

I'm at ulus now sat afternoon had epic peak conditions around 5-6ft bombs inconsistant
but really really good.
Sunday late still had 6ft sets on the peak not as good direction and very crowded
but still some nice bombs. What I find really hard to fathom thou is its only mid
April and this place is packed with surfers. Give me Hawaii anyday. Also the locals expats
are saying its been a really slow year surf wise and this is pretty much the biggest swell since last October ands its only max 6ft.

IF im not surfing im racing

Hako o hakonde ni-biki no inu's picture
Hako o hakonde ni-biki no inu's picture
Hako o hakonde ... commented Monday, 18 Apr 2016 at 7:49am

Thought you were never going back?! And you keep on trying to get them all to go to Hawaii. Sorry Evo, I have to put out a dickhead alert on you. ;))

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Monday, 18 Apr 2016 at 6:31am

Evo - just be sure that everyone around you in Bali knows what a shit time you're having, how much you hate the place and that you'd rather be somewhere else.

The idiots probably don't even realise what a shit time they're having.

I can't understand people like that , walking around happy , smiling and enjoying themselves.....dumb cunts.

Don't they know it was better 30 years ago ?

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Monday, 18 Apr 2016 at 6:41am

"What I find really hard to fathom thou is its only mid
April and this place is packed with surfers"

Mate you go there a few times a year and every time you're there you jump on here and complain about the crowds.
Surely you can't find it that hard to fathom.

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer commented Monday, 18 Apr 2016 at 9:30am

I lost the bet with my family.

IF im not surfing im racing

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Monday, 18 Apr 2016 at 10:01am

Spewin