The bifurcation between the sub-tropics and temperate regions increases through the end of the week with NE windswell extending down to NE Tas and E’ly tradewind swells building in the sub-tropics.
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Once the dominant high enters the Tasman on Wed we’ll see a N’ly pattern start to establish, more typical of Spring/Summer, with some workable NE windswell associated with it.
A trough and cold front are being rapidly shunted southwards by a blocking high which is moving NE into the sub-tropical Tasman and weakening. NW winds are still fresh and gusty across Bass Strait in response to a trough crossing the state, with further NW-W winds expected as another frontal system approaches over the weekend.
A more compact but even stronger storm is right behind it, reaching peak strength halfway across the lower Tasman before slamming into the South Island. Fresh NW-W winds are then expected over the weekend before another series of fronts traverse the lower Tasman next week.
Some powerful but zonal frontal activity will cross the far lower Tasman and send some long period S swell up the Tasman Sea pipe, some of which will wrap into NE part of Tasmania.
Sun still looks great. A Cook Strait fetch should generate a good pulse of E'ly swell, easing through the day.
We've got a fun mix of SE and E swells for the coming period, worth making the most of.
We’ll see quite a few wind change this week as a result and an upgrade in S-S/SE swell energy as the trough and front develop a handy fetch in the Tasman
More NE windswell is on the menu likely Thurs as a front approaches and N’ly winds freshen off Southern NSW.
Cold fronts are passing across the Island and the high pressure will now exert a blocking effect, steering fronts well away from the swell window or ensuring a zonal (W-E) flow through the end of the week and into the weekend.