Severe tropical cyclone (Cat3) Gabrielle is currently tracking SE at about 21 knots and is located about 413 nm NE of Brisbane. This severe storm is expected to undergo an extra-tropical transition through Friday evening, resulting in an expansion of gale to severe-gales around its southern flank as it continues drifting south-east towards New Zealand.

In the short run and a passing front brings S/SW winds tomorrow. The fetch is mostly too zonal for the East Coast but a long trailing fetch should help some small S swell wrap in with size building to 2ft later Tues and holding into Wed at slight larger levels.

The unstable pattern continues with a small trough of low pressure lingering off the Central NSW Coast, linked to tropical cloud bands and moisture streaming in from the Northern Monsoon. A weak front is crossing Tas with a trough forming t the NE of the state. A large, winter-calibre mid-latitude low approaches from the W and becomes slow moving as it passes the state Fri/Sat.

No change to the weekend f/cast. As high pressure drifts across the Tasman we get a rapid intensification of NE winds in the swell window leading to a building trend in NE windswell through Sat up to 3ft through the a’noon.