Dicey winds and weak windswells this week, a bit stronger on the weekend.

Ex TC Gabrielle (SS) is now on the eastern side of the North Island with swell generating winds also in the swell shadow of the North Island. A weak (1017HPa) high is covering most of the Tasman Sea with an active monsoon trough still supplying plenty of tropical moisture and instability across Northern Australia. Remnants of a trough near the South Island have set up a weak, off-axis fetch back into the Tasman Sea while transient N’ly fetches off the NSW South Coast supply some small, weak NE windswell. It all spells a much quieter period of surf ahead. 

Severe tropical cyclone (Cat3) Gabrielle is currently tracking SE at about 21 knots and is located about 413 nm NE of Brisbane. This severe storm is expected to undergo an extra-tropical transition through Friday evening, resulting in an expansion of gale to severe-gales around its southern flank as it continues drifting south-east towards New Zealand.

In the short run and a passing front brings S/SW winds tomorrow. The fetch is mostly too zonal for the East Coast but a long trailing fetch should help some small S swell wrap in with size building to 2ft later Tues and holding into Wed at slight larger levels.