Weak high pressure is in the Tasman with a modest tradewind fetch in the Coral Sea with another weak high moving into the Tasman in it’s wake. Trades perk up today into tomorrow suggesting a small bump in size over the weekend into Mon before easing early next week.
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We should see fun waves up to the weekend, easing into early next week before rebuilding on the back of a SE surge Wed next week.
High pressure drifts more NE into the Tasman with a weak trade flow sitting in the Central Coral Sea through the mid to end of this week.
Anywhere north of the cyclone, especially north of Fraser (K’gari) will see vastly reduced surf.
With the storm now south of Fraser (K'gari) we’ll see most of the swell blocked by that Island.
TC Alfred is about 730 KM NE of Rockhampton and expected to move southwards today, with a SW track possible into Sat.
If we get the CQ crossing, very serious surf in the 8ft range or bigger is likely Mon into Tues.
The trade-wind fetch is relatively robust and will be a long-lasting swell producer for the east coast, favouring sub-tropical areas for size. Confidence is low on the track for TC Alfred and thus it’s surf potential- a general slow southwards movement is expected which is favourable but we may still see a coastal crossing before the cyclone reaches it’s full potential as a surf generator.
Medium term surf potential rests on these tropical lows, with the supporting tradewind belt supplying plenty of energy in the interim, focussed on the sub-tropics.
We’ll see a brief fallow period before a SE surge Fri brings a new SE swell with the next round of Tradeswell next week, possibly enhanced by tropical low pressure systems in the South Pacific and Coral Sea.