High pressure moves into the Tasman next week, setting up a broad E’ly flow, initially in the Coral Sea and then extending into the South pacific and Northern Tasman.
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The synoptic pattern looks unseasonal with a huge, slow moving high in the Bight, expected to be reinforced by another cell to create a blocking pattern below the continent and maintain a long lasting ridge up the Eastern Seaboard this week with a healthy trade flow developing in the Coral Sea later this weekend.
There’s just enough strength in the Coral Sea trade fetch to supply some small/tiny waves on low tides into the weekend.
A sub-tropical low north of the North Island scooted away to the SE over the weekend and as a result the long range E/SE swell is likely to be closer to 1-2ft than 3ft with just the occ bigger set across open Burnett coast exposures.
As mentioned on Wed, we should see the extended flat spell broken next week, not in spectacular fashion, but with some small, rideable days. A trough may develop in the Coral Sea, focussing E/NE winds into it, and supplying CQ with some small rideable surf.
Models are also suggesting a deep sub-tropical low in Tongan longitudes right on the edge of the swell window (see below), which looks to supply some long period E/SE swell through Wed into Fri.
No change to the outlook with low pressure in the Tasman and no swell generating winds for CQ.
The result will be tiny/flat surf for the CQ coast into the weekend and all of next week under current modelling.
A trough developing on Thurs/Fri should see some small E swell develop later Fri and extend into Sat.
There is a sliver of hope if a trough deepens off the Fraser Coast Thurs before moving south. That may see a small bump in swell later Thurs into Fri.