Another week begins with a classic winter El Niño pattern. High pressure over the continent with a W’ly flow being enhanced by a series of mobile fronts and parent lows, sending small S swell pulses our way.

A more typical winter pattern which we saw in June is set to return, with high pressure over the continent ridging against frontal activity with a W’ly flow extending right up to the sub-tropics. Residual S/SE groundswell pulses from the off axis fetch as it drifted slowly SE of the South Island will put a floor under wave heights before we see a fresh round of S swell early next week. 

Strong overlapping south swells remain on the menu for the next three or four days, thanks to a series of powerful fronts sliding around an amplifying long wave trough over New Zealand longitudes.

High pressure sitting up at sub-tropical latitudes is allowing a very active series of fronts to penetrate NE into the Tasman Sea. A very slow moving monster high tracking into WA longitudes is anchoring a sustained SW flow as the fronts ride up it’s extended flank from the Southern Ocean into the Tasman.  We’ll see multiple S swell pulses from this set-up, becoming stronger over the weekend.