Quite a strong front and deep low passes through the southern extremity of the Tasman Sea swell window Mon/Tues- with S swell likely to build Wed or Thurs.
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Small S swells continue to be the main swell trains.
An ice shelf fetch over the weekend looked strong on paper but the extent to which winter sea ice has hindered swell generation remains a key source of uncertainty.
Still on track for a wintry blast this weekend as a strong cold front tied to an intense low currently west of Tasmania sweeps up over the SE overnight and enters the Tasman early tomorrow morning.
Winds shift W’ly as the initial frontal system sweeps across NSW tomorrow, with a stronger front and low moving up over NSW and then entering the Tasman with a vengeance into the weekend.
These low centres are focussing areas of E’ly infeed along the trough line- perfectly aimed at east coast targets.
Plenty of chunky short range S swell through Sun as the low generates a proximate fetch of S’ly low end gales along the south coast to Hunter.
We’ll see the E’ly flow continue to develop in the Northern Tasman and Coral Seas through this week, with swells from that E-NE quadrant building through this short term period under an onshore flow.
The dominant player is a massive high moving through the Bight and expected to drift over and eastwards of Tasmania tomorrow to occupy the Tasman for most of the week.
Back to looking dynamic next week. The crux of it is another very strong high moving at Tasmanian latitudes early next week. That will be the anvil for any hammer that forms next week.