Rip Curl Pro Bells: Early Forecast

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

'March is way too early to run Bells'

And so the claims are made every year when Easter has an early schedule. 2013 sees the full moon cycle slated for the end of March, and with the Rip Curl Pro at Bells Beach starting the Wednesday prior to Easter, this means we'll see the first day of the waiting period commencing mid-next week.

However, we here at Swellnet don't subscribe to that line of thinking - while some surfing regions are certainly more prone to a seasonal bounty of waves, large Southern Ocean swells can happen at any time of the year.

It was only a short while ago that Victorian surfers were stuck in a rut of summer slop, thanks to persistent south-easterly winds and a lack of quality swell. But the last few weeks have delivered solid back to back Torquay groundswells in the 4-6ft range with favourable winds, giving a taste of what's to come in the coming months.

So, how are the weather charts shaping up for the start of the Rip Curl Pro? Fortunately, early indications are very promising and there's even a good chance for a solid swell over the Easter break.

The first day of the waiting period should see a medium sized SW groundswell breaking across the Surf Coast. This is expected to be generated by a slow moving polar frontal progression south-west of Western Australia this coming weekend, falling under the influence of an amplifying upper level long wave trough. Bells and Winki should offer inconsistent set waves between 3ft and maybe 5ft with freshening winds out of the northern quadrant.

This swell is then expected to ease into Thursday, only to replaced by a slightly smaller W/SW groundswell into Friday and Saturday. Conditions should become much cleaner with a strengthening NW breeze, so the prospects for a couple of days of competition straight off the bat is reasonably good.

Beyond this, a much more significant low pressure system may develop in the Southern Ocean next week, and there are good signs that we could be on track for a sizeable groundswell Easter Sunday or Easter Monday. Obviously this is still a very long time away, so we'll monitor the model updates over the coming days to see how this system evolves. But at this point in time, there's a lot of activity on the long range charts to start getting excited about.

Swellnet is proud to to be the unofficial forecaster of the Rip Curl Pro Bells Beach. Check back for further updates and keep an eye on the comments below. //CRAIG BROKENSHA

Comments

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Tuesday, 19 Mar 2013 at 2:21pm

Craig, are you guys leaning towards EC rather than GFS as I can't see the sizeable groundswell that you're referring to for Easter Sunday/Monday from the GFS charts?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 19 Mar 2013 at 2:28pm

Yeah, going slightly more ECMWF regarding longer term but GFS still has a medium to large SW swell event in any case.

leckiep's picture
leckiep's picture
leckiep Tuesday, 19 Mar 2013 at 2:35pm

Bring.
On.
Bells.

Hopefully a little warm-up wave there this weekend with the scaff going up for us mortals to imagine we're in the comp...

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Tuesday, 19 Mar 2013 at 2:48pm

Did that last year Leckiep. Flew down to score a swell, landed on the Friday and straight into big Bells on Friday arvo. Few ten footers coming through and there was only myself and one other fella in the water. Turns out he was one of the guys putting the comp site together. Told me he spent the arvo putting the roof on the Winki lookout hut.

That night it was raining and I had nowhere to sleep so I trudged down the track and slept in the Winki hut safe and sound with the newly installed roof overhead.

leckiep's picture
leckiep's picture
leckiep Tuesday, 19 Mar 2013 at 3:54pm

A timeless tale!

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Tuesday, 19 Mar 2013 at 8:33pm

@stu
It's amazing how at 10 foot on one of the busiest days you can get such uncrowded Bells.
If it was 4-5ft on Good Friday there'd be 40+ in the water.
There was probably 50 punters at fisho's while you were at Bells.

batfink_and_karate's picture
batfink_and_karate's picture
batfink_and_karate Tuesday, 19 Mar 2013 at 9:24pm

That's nice Craig, Stu.

Now, on to important matters, like whether there will be any swell for ME on the central coast over easter. At the moment it looks like shite on a stick.

You blokes get distracted very easily.

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Thursday, 21 Mar 2013 at 1:01am

Craig .

i'm with Don ..... except i don't deny a chance of decent swell .
The thing i can see is a dirty big Trough / E dip / Cut off lowering down onto the area in the midle of next weekend = funky winds . I think i'll stick to what i said in Banter with Ben in the " last chance trop. thread , and local winds will be a spanner in the cog . tip for travelling pro's , maybe lock in " unlimited km's " on ten rental your setting up for the comp period !!!! Unless of course they run it in the first 3 days and finish on GF. !!! <=- crowds ITN .... or " how longs the waiting period "
PS . B&K we'll blame you for your greedy cut off low wishing .......

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Thursday, 21 Mar 2013 at 10:08am

I'm still struggling to see anything above 3-4ft at Bells?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 21 Mar 2013 at 10:24am

Sorry for the wait guys, was waiting for the latest model updates. They're moving around quite a bit.

The swell for Wednesday has definitely been downgraded with the polar frontal progression falling apart, but geez, the system following this is still coming in on track with a large SW groundswell event for Good Friday with a possible secondary pulse for Easter Sunday/Monday.

With the swell timing and size shifting around so much we'll just have to sit tight and wait for the models to come into alignment, but I'm still confident for a large swell on the Easter Long Weekend, easily over 3-4ft.

batfink_and_karate's picture
batfink_and_karate's picture
batfink_and_karate Thursday, 21 Mar 2013 at 9:14pm

"PS . B&K we'll blame you for your greedy cut off low wishing ......."

Yeah, certainly didn't mean it that way Southey.

As a Sydney-sider who can't stand surfing rubbish surf in crowds, I'm somewhat hankering for some surf over easter.

Worse still, because I had a very nice weekend down south and had one great session, which has just reignited my desire for some good waves instead of the rubbish I have to put with on a regular basis.

I suspect that what might work for you also might work for me. I was watching that low develop and hoping it would keep its shape until it got past Tassie, but no such luck.

Good luck to you, hope you all score down there, and we get some up here too.

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Thursday, 21 Mar 2013 at 9:41pm

no stress B & K . as long as someone scores .
for what its worth i personally prefer that it pumps when the Pro's aren't around .
although not that i would sharing similar venues with many of them .
as long as the comp can still survive the chop ( which would be a shame ) ,
and the extra media attention that they bring doesn't cock up " the balance " we have going
on in the " mexican " state . viva la mexico

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 22 Mar 2013 at 12:42pm

Geez, imagine Easter was over the next few days, would get the whole comp done and dusted!

At this stage the only change to the initial forecast is that Wednesday's swell has been pushed back to Thursday, with inconsistent 3-4ft waves expected at Bells. Winds are a little dicey so we'll have to see how they pan out over the coming days.

The larger swell for the Easter Sunday/Monday-Tuesday is still on track with the Southern Ocean firing up in some form late next week/weekend.

This coming Sunday/Monday look like a great warm up for the main event!

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Friday, 22 Mar 2013 at 2:34pm

So are you pushing back the arrival time of the larger sell til Tuesday now Craig? In the past I've found that if the models tend to push out the arrival of larger swells (particularly in the long range charts) then that's generally not a good sign for the actual swell to come to fruition.

I note that through this whole discussion you haven't actually put a size on the swell for Sunday/Monday (and now Tuesday). Care to put something out there?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 22 Mar 2013 at 3:09pm

Should peak somewhere in the 4-6ft range Don.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Friday, 22 Mar 2013 at 3:23pm

Thank Ben. With a massive high pushing across the Bight, the swell looks too zonal for my liking to really get into Bells.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 22 Mar 2013 at 5:49pm

Hi Don, yeah at this early stage as Ben has pointed out in the 4-6ft range and the pattern isn't too zonal at all. These polar fronts lining up from later next week through the weekend are perfect for generating swell at Bells.

As we get closer to the event we'll be more confident on size calls. IMO it's looking pretty nice!

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Friday, 22 Mar 2013 at 6:07pm

Cheers Craig. Fingers crossed the 6ft stuff comes to fruition, with offshore winds to boot!!! :)

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free Saturday, 23 Mar 2013 at 6:16pm

Low tide in the arvo tomorrow with groomage should be on at Winki. Just booked a ticket to join the masses. Keen to have a crack at Two Mile Monday morning. Anyone around down there who can show me around the lineup..

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Saturday, 23 Mar 2013 at 8:13pm

Winki on a offshore Sunday?? Hope ya like crowds mate. Good joint during the week but a freakin circus on the weekend. Hope ya get a few at two mile.

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free Saturday, 23 Mar 2013 at 8:20pm

cheers goofy been going down the last 15 years, had some uncrowded Sat Sun sessions. Different vibe in Vicco, people don't seem to hassle so I reckon you can get your fill. Looks like a great run of swell for Vicco.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Saturday, 23 Mar 2013 at 8:27pm

Yeah hopefully it hangs around throughout the Easter weekend for the comp mick. Yeah I've found that if its pushing 6-8 ft sets its not to bad for waves but once it drops to 4-6 the people seem to double! But should be a good day either way, good luck mate

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Saturday, 23 Mar 2013 at 10:32pm

@ MF , TM should be clean , but maybe a little small. Especially with the higher tide in morning ( although tides are not as big in that direction ) .

either way , with clean conditions , smallish declining period swell should be less sneakers , be pretty harmless for an easy cliff access to boot . its only when the jetty is the only option and the cove is like a grade 5 river rapid that knowing what your doing counts .
if there is any size , just make sure your leggie is SOLID , as apart from a daunting swim most issues for that location is people crashing on the drive home from fatigue . enjoy .

brutus's picture
brutus's picture
brutus Sunday, 24 Mar 2013 at 8:13am

looks like a messy easter,al sorts of West swells and then a bit more Sw on sat Sun......but back into winter cross/shore offshore westerly system....so surf won't be perfect but mornings will be good...

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Sunday, 24 Mar 2013 at 11:33am

I beg to differ Brutus, I think it's shaping up as good as anyone could of expected with strong and building SW groundswells through Saturday, steadying Sunday to 4-5ft/4-6ft ahead of possible larger SW pulse Monday morning.

I agree mornings will be best but to me the forecast is good to great compared to no swell with a dreaded south-easter.

brutus's picture
brutus's picture
brutus Sunday, 24 Mar 2013 at 2:58pm

Craig,looks like the winds will al be out of the west when the swell hits,so thats what I mean about messy easter..swell but westerly winds,so swell be a bit raw and very clean....

no where as good as 2 saturdays ago,,,when it was supa clean SSW swell,and howling hot offshore..perfect everywhere,and so far I see Easter not even coming close to what we call great good surf.

and a Sou ester's not rthat bad ,its dead onshore,we hate the east to Northerly devil winds here!!

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Sunday, 24 Mar 2013 at 7:11pm

@ mick free, how'd ya go today mate?

southey's picture
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southey Sunday, 24 Mar 2013 at 11:38pm

still think they'll need to run it in 3 days , especially if they wnat to finish it on a Public holiday / weekend....... when the waiting period go till ! ?
ATM Sat looks best . But far from epic .
Can smell an EPIC sand on reef day , not too Far aways in the near future !

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 25 Mar 2013 at 7:48am

At this stage it still looks like an epic Easter to me. Might not be the biggest Bells we've ever seen but if the current model runs hold true we'll see excellent waves and great winds for the entire period (late Sat currently modeled to see the biggest waves, with a strong secondary swell Sun and maybe even another strong tertiary swell late Mon/Tues).

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Monday, 25 Mar 2013 at 7:52am

Secondary swell, tertiary swell...what comes after a tertiary swell?

Honour swell? Master swell?

brutus's picture
brutus's picture
brutus Monday, 25 Mar 2013 at 8:04am

looks like a messy windu easter....swell will not be perfect as its not NW enough ..mostly WNW which means W down the coast which puts that west bump....swell,but starts west and goes mors SW,but doesn't look like our best direction swells for Bells....

but lets wait and see,it was only 2-3' yesterday ...shoulda been bigger......but fun!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 25 Mar 2013 at 8:07am

2-3ft yesterday? Saw photos from the Wingman comp that looked more 4-5ft.

Yeah Stu, tertiary is an infrequently used term. I'd be beside myself if we had four related swell events from the same weather progression!

brutus's picture
brutus's picture
brutus Monday, 25 Mar 2013 at 9:00am

I surfed staright after the wingman final,and it was 2-3'.....hardly a 4 footer in sight,maybe its the scales of waves down here being a bit smaller than the East Coasters??

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 25 Mar 2013 at 9:13am
roubydouby's picture
roubydouby's picture
roubydouby Monday, 25 Mar 2013 at 9:48am

I'd call it a bit overhead. It saves measuring dicks.

shaun's picture
shaun's picture
shaun Monday, 25 Mar 2013 at 10:01am

3 foot maybe 3 1/2.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 25 Mar 2013 at 10:11am

Well, main thing at this stage is that it's unlikely that they'll have to relocate away from Bells this year. And that's a big relief.

morris's picture
morris's picture
morris Monday, 25 Mar 2013 at 10:22am

Yes Ben, a big relief for all surfers trying to avoid the Bells crowds.

1.1 to 1.28 m.

gannet's picture
gannet's picture
gannet Monday, 25 Mar 2013 at 10:37am

Hey mick-free

Walk softly and carry a big stick

Ever heard that expression?

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound Monday, 25 Mar 2013 at 10:52am

I surfed centers all morning yesterday, I was riding the front of the wave, not the back and I would have called it 4 ft with the odd bigger one.. 2/3 my butthole... It must be cool to downgrade the wave size these days... Bring on Easter, looks really good IMO.

brutus's picture
brutus's picture
brutus Monday, 25 Mar 2013 at 11:13am

Ben..about 3'...head high...but you are right in saying that the Comp will be at Bells this easter.....the swell directions actually look great for Winki.....

braithy's picture
braithy's picture
braithy Monday, 25 Mar 2013 at 11:34am

I'd call that 4-foot. But up here in god's land, QLD, it barrels.

shaun's picture
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shaun Monday, 25 Mar 2013 at 12:00pm

yes braithy, it's such a bummer living in vicco surfing flat fat waves such as the left in the wave of the day.:)

braithy's picture
braithy's picture
braithy Monday, 25 Mar 2013 at 1:55pm

Yeah I know, Shaun. I have -- or at least used to have -- family down PI way ... I've had some epic surfs there.

Still, there's nothing I like more than the old Vicco doesn't barrel strategy when faced with forum board discussions on wave heights.

It's a definite personal weakness of mine.

cjlister's picture
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cjlister Monday, 25 Mar 2013 at 6:38pm

Well tha would be 6ft+ on the wave deprived Sunny Coast. But hey I would live anywhere else.

southey's picture
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southey Monday, 25 Mar 2013 at 7:33pm

Braithy's all over it . The wave Ben linked to is whatever size , but ot be truthful , your only gonna be surfing the top half of it . Couldn't see anyone going out into the flats to bottom turn or wash off speed . SO 3 ft MAX of surfable wave .... ;-)
Yes Bells and winki have tubes , just rarely if ever is it top to bottom .
Besides if Vicco's like barrels , they just end up West into SA or WA.
Atleast when they are there , unlike other East coasters " they literally , fit in ."
Gannet , does that go like
"Yeh , though i walk through the valley of the shadow of death , I shall fear no Evil . Coz i've got a Big Stick , and I'm the meanest Son of a Bitch in the valley " ??? . NAh , didn't think so !?
Shauno , that photo paints it in a pretty good light . Its been a while personally , sometimes its just easier and occasionally BETTER elsewhere . Even if you have to TRAVEL extreme distances or fly , atleast your not fightin' a hundered others .

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Monday, 25 Mar 2013 at 8:05pm

Southy,

Mid-weeks the go mate, only 50 guys out!

But really in those conditions that it works in, there isn't many better waves around

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free Monday, 25 Mar 2013 at 10:43pm

Yesterday (Sunday) was on my scale 4 foot, with two some five footers on late breaking wide at winki. Saw Brutus in the carpark and commented on his preferential car spot (well deserved too). They had the pre-trials and legends on at Bells so sent the crowd next door. Intense crowd 60+ during day and 20-30 on late. Medina was surfing very sharp and had a yarn with Jordy in the lineup. There was a lot of dropins. Winds definitely fickle though. super strong in morning and then moved around. Got down to TM last night and from what Phil at the local shop said they were towing super early on sunday morning before the wind came up strong approx 12-15 feet. Surfed there this morning with 8 guys surfing. Jumped in from the ledge (was about 12 foot jump to get into the water). Paddled out on a 10'1, so was pretty hectic first time. The sets were 3- 4x ohead. So I guess that's 8-10. Couple of bigger ones. Tide was probably too high but I think it was on a dying swell as it faded after 1pm. Only got 3 but pretty fun day. Keen for another crack.

Models have it big for Sunday. Magic seaweed have it up to 20 feet on Sunday for western Vic.

benherrgott's picture
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benherrgott Tuesday, 26 Mar 2013 at 9:24am

This is how it looked Sunday: Few great shots and a nice short film: http://theduckwhisperer.com/2013/03/24/one-classic-autumn-day/

gannet's picture
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gannet Tuesday, 26 Mar 2013 at 9:40am

No Southy, its more along the lines of actions speaking louder than words.

Perhaps its not always such a bright idea to telegraph your intentions to all and sundry.

gannet's picture
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gannet Tuesday, 26 Mar 2013 at 9:41am

and not because some tough local prick might have a go at you. Simply because it ain't too smart to shit in yer own nest.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Tuesday, 26 Mar 2013 at 11:35am

Little did I even know that Australian surfing had interstate rivalries and that Bells and Winki were the only 2 surfable waves in Vic. Thanks for the enlightenment.

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Tuesday, 26 Mar 2013 at 12:42pm

Goofy ,
Broaden your horizons . But sometimes it's closer than you think .
Gannet ,
I haven't been there in almost a year .
Was having fun . As in that mirrored a bible tale , but different .
When I throw stones into the water , they don't make a ripple !!
If you had of noticed , I actually discouraged " good conditions " .

Lost doggy , " love ins " can be good , but personally I prefer MCD.
Viva la Mexico

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 26 Mar 2013 at 3:21pm

We're now at the point where we can see to the end of the forecast period and make some calls on when they may run the contest.

Wednesday and Thursday look a little small with clean 2ft waves. With bigger swells over the coming days, they may elect to skip these days.

The outlook for Friday is good, with 3ft of new swell under morning offshore NW winds. It looks like the competition will kick off this day, but most likely the Women's as they have a shorter waiting period.

A much stronger SW groundswell should build during Saturday , reaching 4-5ft by the afternoon. Conditions should be excellent again during the morning with a fresh offshore, but this will gave way to a cross-onshore W/SW change as the swell start to really kick. We should see a full day of competition.

A slightly larger reinforcing SW groundswell is expected on Sunday offering 5-6ft sets and conditions look good with a light morning NW'ly that should give into light afternoon sea breezes. Another whole day of competition in great waves.

Sunday's swell should ease temporarily into Monday ahead of an afternoon kick in new SW groundswell to 4-5ft+ later in the day. The only problem is that winds will swing from a fresh morning W/NW'ly around to a strong SW'er before lunch creating poor conditions into the afternoon. Regardless we should still see a full day of competition to take advantage of the swell and the public holiday.

Tuesday looks big and onshore with an easing swell from 4-6ft. Hard to tell whether they'll run in these conditions.

Lighter winds with a steady drop in swell from Wednesday means they'll want to wrap the contest up ASAP (unless a phantom storm forms on the weather charts from now until then).

brutus's picture
brutus's picture
brutus Tuesday, 26 Mar 2013 at 3:40pm

good call craig.....maybe sunday might actually be 8 ' as this stage its a pretty south swell...with glassy conditions all day.....will know in the next couple of days about swell direction....and maybe monday....yewwwwwww

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Tuesday, 26 Mar 2013 at 5:51pm

Good stuff Craig. As we've been discussing in the office, I still personally think Saturday afternoon's kick might see some late 6ft sets at Bells, and Sunday could also push above 6ft as Brutus suggested above.

Either way it looks like the whole Easter break will be run at Bells which will be very welcome by the event organisers (and punters who were thinking about coming down a day of action over the Easter break).

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 27 Mar 2013 at 7:14am

The latest model runs have now split from what's been a pretty consistent trend over the last few days - overnight the models have downgraded the entire weather progression for this weekend's swell.

Based on current guidance I'd be surprised to see much more than 4-5ft but I'll keep a close eye on this afternoon's model updates.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Wednesday, 27 Mar 2013 at 4:54pm

And what swell does arrive looks to coincide right on cue with onshore shitty winds!!!

z-man's picture
z-man's picture
z-man Wednesday, 27 Mar 2013 at 5:56pm

Been watching the models and must agree with donweather.

Such is the life of a pro surfer! And the entourage.

Win some/lose some.

leckiep's picture
leckiep's picture
leckiep Thursday, 28 Mar 2013 at 10:17am

Well having the comp running all through the Easter weekend is great news for the highlights, comp organisers, and me - with all the Pros confined to the Torquay area.

Plenty of swell and winds from the west = plenty of 'somewheres' with waves all weekend. Gettin' excited now... Yew!

greyhound's picture
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greyhound Thursday, 28 Mar 2013 at 4:27pm

Leckeips right, Phillip island should be going right off..

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 28 Mar 2013 at 7:22pm

Just another update heading into the Easter Long Weekend, after my initial disappointment on Wednesday morning, things have rallied back somewhat.

Saturday will probably start in the 3ft range before that strong SW groundswell fills in and we should see 4-5ft sets developing into the mid-late afternoon. NW tending W/NW winds should create an excellent day of viewing both down at the contest site and online!

Sunday morning should see a mix of easing SW and new W/SW swell somewhere between 4ft to possibly 6ft but besides a brief period of W'ly winds during the first few hours of light, a gusty SW change will create average conditions from mid-late morning onwards.

Monday looks good again with an easing swell from 3-4ft under offshore W/NW winds.

Swells for later Tuesday and later Wednesday are still moving around a bit but we'll probably see a late pulse to 4ft or so later Tuesday with Wednesday's pulse possibly being a touch stronger to 4-6ft. W/NW to W/SW winds should see good wave for most of the day Tuesday while a moderate to fresh S/SE'ly will create average conditions Wednesday.

The last few days look good still with improving winds and a couple of further S/SW groundswell pulses.