Eyes To The North For Incoming Tropical Wave
Our ever-reliable wave of tropical activity is inbound across the north of the country this week, though it's not travelling through the ocean, rather the atmosphere.
The atmospheric wave is associated with increased instability, convection and cyclogenesis (tropical cyclones) in our tropical regions and is known as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO).
The MJO has a period of 30-60 days and last moved through the north of the country at the start of December. That episode produced Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper which crossed the northern Qld coast, bringing significant rainfalls and widespread flooding.
Currently, the MJO is in the Indian Ocean with two tropical cyclones forming under its influence, with our region set to follow over the coming week.
As the MJO moves further east, we're expected to see it spawn a tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea, but again it doesn't look great for swell potential.
The majority of the global forecasting models have it sitting east of Cairns, too far north and west to generate swell that'll impact the south-east Queensland and NSW coast.
As with all long-range forecasts regarding tropical cyclones, confidence on the track and strength is low, but regardless, a deepening tropical low north of New Zealand looks to be a better swell producer for the weekend and early next week.
With the instability inbound across the country over the coming week and a bit, all eyes should be focussed on the East Coast regional Forecaster Notes for updates on the local swell and wind possibilities from the north-eastern quadrant.