Luckily for the Woz, the coastline of Newcastle juts far into the Tasman Sea, allowing it to pick up any sniff of south swell. Curiously, Newy can also rake in more nor’east swell than its southerly alignment would suggest.

When the Newcastle Cup begins this Thursday, the organisers will be strongly relying on these two attributes to sound the competition hooter.

Late Tuesday a southerly swell will push up the East Coast. It’ll be a low quality swell, peaking on Wednesday, the day before the waiting period begins. The wind will be moderate from the south making a mess of conditions.

By Thursday, Day One, we’ll see sets easing from 3-4ft in the morning with lumpy conditions under a light, early W/NW land breeze, that’ll shift back to the S/SE into the afternoon.

By Friday morning the southerly regime that began on Tuesday will be coming to an end. Swell size will be down to about 2-3ft out of the south-southeast. There’ll be an offshore nor’west wind in the morning, keeping conditions clean, which will give way to an afternoon seabreeze from the nor’east

By Saturday the southerly swell cycle will be over and the aforementioned coastal alignment will come into play. Merewether should still be picking up around 2ft of background southerly signal as the rest of the East Coast goes flat. Offshore north-west winds in the mornings will give way to afternoon nor’east seabreezes.

While not amazing, next week holds potential for fun surf with a tropical low forming in the Coral Sea, off the Queensland coast, forecast to drift south, squeezing a high in the Tasman Sea through the weekend. This will produce small levels of east-northeast trade swell for most of next week.

There’s also the potential for more size if the low drifts south into Newcastle's swell window - something we’ll be watching very closely.

Regardless of the low’s movements, we'll see the trade wind setup persisting all week, providing surf around the peaky 3ft range - unless the mentioned low moves south -  favouring the beach break at Dixon Park.

At the same time, the next round of south swell will push up the Tasman following while a strong frontal progression that’ll push under Tasmania on Sunday. While not overly strong, this system will deliver pulses of 3-4ft southerly groundswell, likely biggest on the Tuesday - Day Six of the waiting period. 

The wind through the first half of next week looks generally favourable with light offshores every morning ahead of afternoon sea breezes.

So all in all, the outlook is active but not epic. It’s highly likely we’ll see a slew of half days as the organisers pick and choose from the waiting period.

• Thursday: Slowly easing S/SE swell from 3-4ft. Light W/SW tending S/SE winds.
• Friday: Easing SE swell from 2-3ft. Light W/NW tending SE winds.
• Saturday: Small, background swells to 2ft. Light NW tending fresh E/NE winds.
• Sunday: Small, background swells to 2ft. Light N tending E/NE winds.
• Monday: Mix of new E/NE and S groundswells to 3-4ft. Early W/SW tending fresh S winds.
• Tuesday: Mix of  E/NE and S groundswells to 3-4ft. Early W/SW tending fresh S/SE winds.
• Wednesday: Mix of  E/NE and S groundswells to 3-4ft. Light NW tending E winds.
• Thursday onwards: Mix of E/NE and S groundswells to 3ft. Light morning offshore winds and sea breezes.

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